• Welcome to the Green and Gold Rugby forums. As you can see we've upgraded the forums to new software. Your old logon details should work, just click the 'Login' button in the top right.

Springboks vs Wallabies @ Newlands 27/9/2014

Status
Not open for further replies.
KOB1987

KOB1987

Rod McCall (65)
Lorenzo said:
I've offered to make a video which would make it trivial to analyse his throwing performance over time, I just want a KPI from those that are confident he's meeting them so the goalposts don't shift after people see the results.
Click to expand...

To try to define a KPI would be a very subjective exercise..there appears to be two main arguments here:
1) that TPN's lineout throwing has improved over time, and
2) that his recent performances are no worse than that of the next best option
 
cyclopath

cyclopath

George Smith (75)
Staff member
Lorenzo said:
I've offered to make a video which would make it trivial to analyse his throwing performance over time, I just want a KPI from those that are confident he's meeting them so the goalposts don't shift after people see the results.
Click to expand...
I'd love to hear how a video cherry-picking throws from 27 Tests would invalidate any robust statistical analysis. Unless you plan to cut together every throw from those Tests and break them into groupings so that data can be compared over stages to see if there are significant differences, or not, over the past 4 years. You might need pre-2010 data to compare.
Is this the plan?
 
The_Brown_Hornet

The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
Lorenzo said:
I've offered to make a video which would make it trivial to analyse his throwing performance over time, I just want a KPI from those that are confident he's meeting them so the goalposts don't shift after people see the results.
Click to expand...



Go for it chief. Let's see this empirical analysis.
 
Scrubber2050

Scrubber2050

Mark Ella (57)
Lorenzo old mate - keep going with it - a lot of work in compiling such data and I appreciate your time - stats don't lie - IMO obviously the KPI for each player: Say Moore, TPN, Saia, Hanson would be good

1. is the number of throws
2. were the throws straight (in the Refs opinion)

Any other KPI's such as stolen ball becomes too subjective - lets keep it simple

Then the calculation must be the percentages between the two
 
Brumby Runner

Brumby Runner

David Wilson (68)
Scrubber2050 said:
Lorenzo old mate - keep going with it - a lot of work in compiling such data and I appreciate your time - stats don't lie - IMO obviously the KPI for each player: Say Moore, TPN, Saia, Hanson would be good

1. is the number of throws
2. were the throws straight (in the Refs opinion)

Any other KPI's such as stolen ball becomes too subjective - lets keep it simple

Then the calculation must be the percentages between the two
Click to expand...

Not accurate enough. A lot of lineout wins against the throw presumably can be attributed to the throw being too low, too short or overthrown. I'd say that these errors are nearly as prevalent with some throwers as crooked ones. Just measuring crooked throws will not capture these other elements. On the other hand, the thrower is not responsible for failure of the jumper or the lifters. Hence, imo, there is no other measure better than the observers' gut feeling about how any particular hooker is performing at the lineout.
 
Scrubber2050

Scrubber2050

Mark Ella (57)
Brumby Runner said:
Not accurate enough. A lot of lineout wins against the throw presumably can be attributed to the throw being too low, too short or overthrown. I'd say that these errors are nearly as prevalent with some throwers as crooked ones. Just measuring crooked throws will not capture these other elements. On the other hand, the thrower is not responsible for failure of the jumper or the lifters. Hence, imo, there is no other measure better than the observers' gut feeling about how any particular hooker is performing at the lineout.
Click to expand...

The only stats that cannot be challenged is whether the ball is thrown straight or not. Surely that would be sufficent for this exercise.
 
KOB1987

KOB1987

Rod McCall (65)
Scrubber2050 said:
The only stats that cannot be challenged is whether the ball is thrown straight or not. Surely that would be sufficent for this exercise.
Click to expand...

the only stat that would provide the answer is whether the ball hits the target and as the players aren't miked up (and in any case are speaking in code) we usually don't know what the target is..often the lifters and the throw itself will give it away subsequently though..
 
Brumby Runner

Brumby Runner

David Wilson (68)
Scrubber2050 said:
The only stats that cannot be challenged is whether the ball is thrown straight or not. Surely that would be sufficent for this exercise.
Click to expand...

I think all stats can be challenged as they are reflective of subjective decisions by Refs and ARs as well as interpretation by the collector of the stats. For instance, there is a wide variation in the interpretation of ARs as to what constitutes a crooked throw. It could be argued that those variations will cancel out over a reasonable period, but to me it is just too open to whim to be reliable.
 
KOB1987

KOB1987

Rod McCall (65)
I think that the general consensus is that TPN's throwing has improved significantly since he became 1st/2nd choice Wallaby hooker to the extent that it's not really an issue nowadays..as Lorenzo appears to be the only one here arguing against that the onus is on him to disprove it..
 
fatprop

fatprop

George Gregan (70)
Staff member
KOB1987 said:
I think that the general consensus is that TPN's throwing has improved significantly since he became 1st/2nd choice Wallaby hooker to the extent that it's not really an issue nowadays..as Lorenzo appears to be the only one here arguing against that the onus is on him to disprove it..
Click to expand...


especially as he is throwing the ball in less concussed these days - he has finally learned to temper his kamikaze approach to rugby
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top