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Super Rugby - Road to the Finals 2018

Discussion in 'Rugby Discussion' started by Braveheart81, Jun 4, 2018.

  1. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    So we've got three weeks off for the June test series and then three weeks left of Super Rugby before the finals.

    The current standings are as follows:

    Crusaders - 54 - bye, Hig (H), Blu (H)
    Lions - 40 - Sha (A), bye, Bul (H)
    Waratahs -35 - Reb (A), Sun (H), Bru (H)
    Hurricanes - 45 - Bru (A), Blu (H), Chi (A)
    Highlanders - 40 - Chi (H), Cru (A), Reb (H)
    Chiefs -37 - Hig (A), Bru (H), Hur (H)
    Jaguares - 34 - Sto (H), Bul (A), Sha (A)
    Rebels - 34 - War (H), Red (A), Hig (A)
    Sharks - 28 - Lio (H), Sto (A), Jag (H)

    Even with one less game in hand the Crusaders will most likely win the minor premiership.

    The Sharks are the only team outside the top 8 who can realistically still make the finals. They need to win their last three games and pick up some bonus points to make it.

    The Rebels and Waratahs should both make it which will be good to have two Aussie teams in the finals. The bad news is that whoever doesn't win the conference will most likely travel to New Zealand to play the Crusaders or South Africa to play the Lions. The Rebels need to beat the Tahs in Melbourne to have a realistic chance of topping the conference.
    Silverado likes this.
  2. waiopehu oldboy Nick Farr-Jones (63)

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    I don't think the Sharks can catch the Rebels & can't really see the current order changing other than possibly the Chiefs re-gaining fifth but the Clan are unbeaten at home this year so I suspect it won't happen.

    Worth remembering that the semi final matchups are winner of QF1 (1 v 8) v winner of QF2 (4 v 5) & QF3 (2 v 7) v QF4 (3 v 6), so:

    QF1 Crusaders v Rebels
    QF2 Hurricanes v Highlanders
    QF3 Lions v Jaguares
    QF4 Waratahs v Chiefs

    SF1 Crusaders v Hurricanes
    SF2 Lions v Chiefs

    GF ??? but if it's in Christchurch I'm going :)
  3. Rebels3 Phil Hardcastle (33)

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    If the Rebels can move upto 7th and the Lions continue to falter a little there is a very real possibility of an all Aussie qtr final (Tahs 2nd/Rebels 7th).

    Could then also have the comical situation where the Crusaders host a kiwi team in the semi, lose to them and the Tahs win their semi to host the final. It's not that far fetched but would be a mockery to the system that it's even possible given the difference in competition points
  4. Braveheart81 Rocky Elsom (76)

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    If the Lions drop a game and the Tahs win out they will finish 2nd. If the Tahs come third, hopefully the Chiefs will lose two of their last three and drop down to 7th and then beat the Lions in South Africa.

    The Sharks definitely need to win their last three to have a chance of making it. The Jaguares have a reasonably tough finish as well with two away games (albeit all games against teams lower than them). If the Jaguares slip up at home against the Stormers then anything could happen.
  5. Rebels3 Phil Hardcastle (33)

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    Lions still have to serve their bye week and have to play a desperate sharks away from home and the Bulls at home. Can honestly see them only winning the Bulls game.

    Tahs have the Sunpuppies at home (should be 5 points), Rebels away (should at least pick up a bonus point) and Brumbies at home (should win, maybe even a bonus point). Think that will put them ahead of the Lions and into 2nd.

    Problem with the Rebels is the remaining fixtures could easily be 3 defeats. Tahs at home, Reds away and Highlanders away. Brings the Sharks back into the equation, although they as described earlier are inconsistent

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