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The Climate Change Thread

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Mr Doug

Dick Tooth (41)
Whatever makes you feel comfortable Ruggo. As you say "we are all entitled to our opinions".
John Casey must be a good 'salesman' if he could convince the heads of NASAR and senior White House staff, to allow him to offer his advice, given that (according to you and BPC), he has such a limited knowledge of the subject, and such lowly qualifications.
Some time in the future, I will eventually be proved right or wrong, as my argument will rest on actual (recorded) temperatures, not projected (mythical) ones.
If I am wrong, I will be man enough to admit it, will you?
 

matty_k

Peter Johnson (47)
Staff member
So let me get this straight, despite the large amounts of evidence that is proving you wrong now, you are going to wait it out until you until it is too late?
 

BPC

Phil Hardcastle (33)
Whatever makes you feel comfortable Ruggo. As you say "we are all entitled to our opinions".
John Casey must be a good 'salesman' if he could convince the heads of NASAR and senior White House staff, to allow him to offer his advice, given that (according to you and BPC), he has such a limited knowledge of the subject, and such lowly qualifications.
Some time in the future, I will eventually be proved right or wrong, as my argument will rest on actual (recorded) temperatures, not projected (mythical) ones.
If I am wrong, I will be man enough to admit it, will you?

Except that he was a advisor to NASA on the space program and Space Shuttle missions. He worked for them for some time so was presumably qualified in that area.

His bio does not say he is an advisor to NASA and the White House on climate matters. It appears he sent an unsolicited letter to the White House, that's all.

But don't let the facts get in the way of your opinions.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
If you do even a small amount of research on Casey, his theory, his organisation or who peer reviewed his work, it unravels completely.

But by all means Mr Doug. Believe in the theory of one guy with little expertise in the field who in five or six years of advancing the theory has received absolutely no support or agreement for it.

Oh and he predicted that sea level rises peaked in 2013. I bet that prediction is going to work out really well for him...
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
They challenge for Aus is that we don't need any new power stations, we have more supply than demand at the moment.

So what do we do?
Scrap current power stations before their use by date? Who pays for that? I bet when they were privatised there were guarantees embedded in the deal.
Or do we invest in carbon cleaning technologies to make them less "horrible"

Dunno the answer

There has been huge overinvestment in both power generation and electricity assets (poles and wires) by various state governments in recent years.

Previously there has been a steady correlation between economic growth and electricity demand but that relationship started uncoupling about five years ago. No one predicted that electricity demand wouldn't just stagnate but fall.

The take up of domestic PV systems has completely outstripped expectations. Around 1 million houses in Australia have one now. SA and Qld are leading the way with 25% and 20% respectively.

The next stage of this is improvement in battery power. Batteries are decreasing in cost and improving in quality and as lithium ion batteries become more advanced and available for more general use, these will supercede lead acid batteries.

Once home users have decent and cost effective batteries, they can both store their excess electricity generated during the day but also take electricity off the grid during off peak times when it is cheap and save it for use during peak demand.

The biggest problem that the electricity network will face is once more and more people are essentially self sufficient it will drive up the costs for others massively.

It is almost inevitable that some of our power generation assets will become white elephants. The question of how long to stick with them might be out of many of the generators' hands. It seems that power generation is going to move to smaller and smaller scale rather than just replacing one large coal power plant with a large renewable power plant.
 

formerflanker

Ken Catchpole (46)

A good reminder of why cutting carbon dioxide emissions is irrelevant is in Quadrant. John McLean writes inter alia:
  • the latest IPCC report admits that the temperature trend was flat from 1998 to 2012.
  • thermometers on earth and microwave instruments on satellites are both reporting a flat-lining of the temperature trend.
  • a track record of failure and often sensationalist claims can only encourage scepticism about climate models that predicted global warming.
Its is a folly to harm businesses and increase taxes to reduce carbon dioxide when it is demonstrably not harming the planet.
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
A good reminder of why cutting carbon dioxide emissions is irrelevant is in Quadrant. John McLean writes inter alia:
  • the latest IPCC report admits that the temperature trend was flat from 1998 to 2012.
  • thermometers on earth and microwave instruments on satellites are both reporting a flat-lining of the temperature trend.
  • a track record of failure and often sensationalist claims can only encourage scepticism about climate models that predicted global warming.
Its is a folly to harm businesses and increase taxes to reduce carbon dioxide when it is demonstrably not harming the planet.

Here's Crikey's take on the guy:

http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/01/13/the-big-oil-backed-climate-denier-who-hoodwinked-fairfax/

Who is John McLean? What qualifications entitle him to speak as an expert on climate science? What is the ICSC, and which groups, interests and agendas do McLean and the ICSC represent? What exactly does it mean to be an “expert reviewer” of IPCC reports?
McLean is not affiliated with any university or scientific organisation. He has no verifiable qualifications in the field of climate science. On his website McLean describes himself as a “computer consultant and occasional travel photographer”.
In 2006, McLean published his first peer-reviewed paper —  a “review” of CSIRO reports  — in the journal Energy and Environment. In the scientific community, E&E is regarded as a bottom-of-the-barrel journal. It is the journal of choice for loony papers, amateur enthusiasts and semi-retired climate sceptic scientists who have no credentials in the field of climatology. The journal’s editor, Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, once told the Chronicle of Higher Education: ”I’m following my political agenda — a bit, anyway. But isn’t that the right of the editor?”
Two years later, and still with no verifiable scientific qualifications, McLean popped up as lead author of a paper with fellow ICSC think tank associates Bob Carter and Chris de Freitas. Published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, it concluded the Southern Oscillation (the atmospheric component of El Nino) was the primary driver of global temperatures, not human activities. The paper was comprehensively demolished in a subsequent comment by nine leading climate scientists.
Which brings us to McLean’s latest paper, which he and de Freitas published in an open-access Journal of Scientific Research Publishing, a vanity publisher whose journals have reportedly re-published papers from reputable scientific journals without notification or permission of the author and listing academics on its editorial boards without their knowledge or permission.
Clearly McLean has no standing or expertise in the field of climate science. So why does he persist in publishing opinion pieces as an “expert” on climate change? His affiliation with the International Climate Science Coalition holds the key to this question.
Despite its name, the ICSC does not conduct scientific research. It is funded by the Heartland Institute, an American right-wing think tank historically bankrolled by Exxon to promote climate denial. Perhaps not surprisingly, the ICSC’s primary agenda includes discrediting authoritative science on climate change, opposing regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and “educating” the public on the “dangerous impacts” involved in trying to replace fossil fuels with cleaner energy sources such as wind and solar power.
Executive director Tom Harris is a former APCO public relations executive  — APCO being most memorable for launching the Advancement of Sound Science Coalition (or TASSC), a lobby group and crisis management vehicle bankrolled by Big Tobacco in the United States to discredit scientific studies linking second-hand smoke to cancer, while achieving legislative outcomes favourable to the tobacco industry. APCO’s media strategy to launch TASSC included establishing the lobby group as a credible source for journalists, building a grassroots social movement that encouraged the general public to “fight” the science, and targeting sympathetic journalists who would run with the TASSC message unchallenged.
 

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
Five reasons for the new senate to keep the carbon price

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...jul/10/carbon-price-senate-palmer-muir-abbott

"Despite the misleading rhetoric from Abbott and his climate-denying, renewable energy opposing business advisors, the carbon price has actually done very well.
None of Abbott's histrionic doomsday prophecies have eventuated — there has been no python squeeze, Whyalla remains on the map, a leg of lamb costs less than $100 and electricity prices haven't skyrocketed. In fact, the Australian economy, despite Abbott's car industry mismanagement and industry-policy negligence, has done rather well. Unemployment remains low in most states, economic growth is good, and interests rates are stable.
On top of that, carbon pollution from regulated sectors is reducing. Renewable energy production is increasing. Clean-energy jobs are growing."

1. It's reducing carbon pollution

The consistent lie by opponents of the carbon price is that it does not reduce carbon emissions or does not have an impact on global warming. Australia is one of the world's largest emitters of carbon pollution, and the largest per capita. Any reduction from Australia not only shows global leadership (which is at risk of the price was abolished) but has a real, measurable impact on the amount of carbon pollution in our atmosphere.

2. It's increasing renewable energy (and cutting energy prices)


3. The fossil fuel industry is already calculating a shadow price


4. It's future-proofing our industries


5. The rest of the world is pricing carbon
 

formerflanker

Ken Catchpole (46)
This is an interesting but unsurprising read.



http://www.salon.com/2014/07/10/study_uncovers_the_worst_climate_deniers_rich_republicans/

Study reports the worst climate deniers: Rich Republicans

And the possible reasons why are not surprising.

A new study, published in the journal Climate Change, found a strong correlation between Republicans’ abundance of wealth and dismissal of climate change.

I'm sure that Al Gore was one of the study's respondents (sarc)! He made many factual errors in "An Inconvenient Truth" yet made millions off the back of the film. He sold Current TV network to Al Jazeera, an oil-backed entity, for a personal gain of US $70 million. He is said to be a "tiresome pedant and climate alarmist who lives a jet-setting, carbon-profligate lifestyle while preaching asceticism for everyone else."
Ah yes, only the evil right wingers have a stance on climate change based on financial greed.
 

formerflanker

Ken Catchpole (46)
Here is a lovely picture and tweet showing icebergs in the US summer.
PS anyone going skiing this Oz winter? Conditions do look good.
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Here is a lovely picture and tweet showing icebergs in the US summer.
PS anyone going skiing this Oz winter? Conditions do look good.

images
 

Mr Doug

Dick Tooth (41)
"Too late", matty-K? Too late for what?
Oh I get it, you think that our planet will suddenly, and inexplicably heat up , a bit like the "Y2K bug, and Planet Earth tilting on it's axis (was that in the 1960s or 1970s). If the earth heats up by (say) 0.003 to 0.03 degrees c by 2100, that gives me plenty of time to come up with a decision on Global Warming vs Global Cooling. Add to that my Cardiologists prediction that my projected (there's that word again) demise could occur in the next 9 years, I'd better get back to you 'folk' in (say) 3 to 5 years.
Meanwhile, Bundaberg, Moranbah, Clermont, and Brisbane, are a few of the locations throughout Queensland that have recorded record-low temperatures, going back 100 plus years. The grass temp at my Gold Coast home dropped to minus 0.5c on Friday morning, equalling the lowest I've recorded in the 27.5 years that I've lived here.
You probably agree with the BOM statement that Queensland has had its hottest year on record, however my daily temperature and rainfall records don't support that statement. A truck driver rang ABC 612 Brisbane during the week to say that he had never seen frost as heavy at The Grange bowls club. A lady rang to say that for the first time ever, at her Brisbane home, she had to scrape ice from her car's windscreen.
As they are not "Peer Reviewed", Ruggo would dismiss my readings, along with the BOM figures, along with those two phone calls.

FYI, the hottest day over summer 2013-14 at my place was 36c, whereas the record was in the summer of 2004-5, namely 41c. In the last 6 years we have reached 39c on two occasions, (once in October), so no global warming here.

I realise a few hot days, or frosts, don't constitute a 'trend', but my readings are not, [to quote Donald Rumsfeld], "unknowns", they are "known knowns". For example, often the 'weather guy' on either Chn7 or Chn9 tells me at breakfast time that "The gold Coast is in for a wet day", (and displays a cloudy, rainy icon). The reality is, on most such occasions, I look out the window and see bright sunshine, with maybe 15%-20% cloud-cover, which remains throughout the day.

matty,it's pretty basic stuff: I believe in what my surroundings and 'nature' tell me in the "outside" world. You choose to believe a group of people ("unknown" to you), in air-conditioned rooms punching data into electronic devices plugged into power outlets, and asking them to predict the future!
Anyway, I'm off to the Reds v Tahs thread to moan about the Reds pathetic performance last night! Cheers.
 

formerflanker

Ken Catchpole (46)
Well, the scientific community can't argue with that. o_O

Are you admitting that the scientific community is arguing about climate change? So much for consensus then.
As Monckton says, only 0.5 percent of the authors of 11,944 scientific papers on climate and related topics over the past 21 years said they agreed that most of the warming since 1950 was man-made.
Now you may shoot the messenger, but his facts stack up.
 
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