Where to for Super Rugby?

[KOB1987]

Is this all for 2021? I don't expect there'll be a bubble by Feb/March next year.

High chance Vic can't reign it in, will Rebels even have a home let alone a position in a comp?

I was thinking about this last night, along with some of the points mst makes.

Although rugby is truly a global sport and that is it's major sell point in a normal world, we are not in a normal world right now and there is zero point in a strategy in the short term which positions us as such. By default, I think the only way to go for 2021 is to run parallel domestic comps with NZ and hope that by the time that has completed we can have some TT rivalry, whether that be a champions league type concept, or some 'rep' provincial games, or both.

Done right it could actually result in a blueprint for the future.

 

[Number 7]

I was thinking about this last night, along with some of the points mst makes.

Although rugby is truly a global sport and that is it's major sell point in a normal world, we are not in a normal world right now and there is zero point in a strategy in the short term which positions us as such. By default, I think the only way to go for 2021 is to run parallel domestic comps with NZ and hope that by the time that has completed we can have some TT rivalry, whether that be a champions league type concept, or some 'rep' provincial games, or both.

Done right it could actually result in a blueprint for the future.

I agree. All this debate about TT vs domestic will likely become superfluous in the current situation. RA should save time and just plan a domestic comp and keep a window free at the end for a potential TT playoff series. Probably the best they can hope for.

 

[Derpus]

You think the radio silence means these absolute numpties have started talking behind closed doors like adults?

 

[hoggy]

No drastic headlines of Mongolian franchises being added to the comp this week, don't know whether i'd go as far as adult talk though.

 

[stoff]

Is this all for 2021? I don't expect there'll be a bubble by Feb/March next year.

High chance Vic can't reign it in, will Rebels even have a home let alone a position in a comp?

We'll be fine by February and should be covid-free by October. The R-Rate has been dropping since a week after lockdown (I've got bored and have been making spreadsheets, but that's a matter for another thread). I think a bubble for next season is achievable.

I think there was talk of a meeting during this week between us and NZ. Can't remember if Fairfax or the Aus reported it. Hopefully there is some sort of announcement late this week/early next whether it's TT or one of the other plans.

 

[hoggy]

We'll be fine by February and should be covid-free by October. The R-Rate has been dropping since a week after lockdown (I've got bored and have been making spreadsheets, but that's a matter for another thread). I think a bubble for next season is achievable.

I think there was talk of a meeting during this week between us and NZ. Can't remember if Fairfax or the Aus reported it. Hopefully there is some sort of announcement late this week/early next whether it's TT or one of the other plans.

maybe Co-Vid will be under control or even a vaccine, but theirs a decent risk of a flair up at some stage next year, is it worth the risk of planning a TT comp with that forward knowledge.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

We'll be fine by February and should be covid-free by October. The R-Rate has been dropping since a week after lockdown (I've got bored and have been making spreadsheets, but that's a matter for another thread). I think a bubble for next season is achievable.

I think there was talk of a meeting during this week between us and NZ. Can't remember if Fairfax or the Aus reported it. Hopefully there is some sort of announcement late this week/early next whether it's TT or one of the other plans.

Meeting was Wednesday apparently - nothing leaked so far

 

[Derpus]

Meeting was Wednesday apparently - nothing leaked so far

amazing.

 

[KOB1987]

Meeting was Wednesday apparently - nothing leaked so far

amazing.

Justin Harrison mustn't be in the loop for these talks.

 

[mst]

We'll be fine by February and should be covid-free by October. The R-Rate has been dropping since a week after lockdown (I've got bored and have been making spreadsheets, but that's a matter for another thread). I think a bubble for next season is achievable.

I think there was talk of a meeting during this week between us and NZ. Can't remember if Fairfax or the Aus reported it. Hopefully there is some sort of announcement late this week/early next whether it's TT or one of the other plans.

Kiwis (PM) officially burst the TT bubble last week so that won't be back on the table again for a few months yet so the RU's probably just compared notes. I would also be betting that travel restrictions will be in place for quite a long time yet so it won't be straightforward. You also need to consider what the airlines will be doing I would suggest it will be a limited service so availability of flight options could cause issues and flight costs could go up.

So as a business proposition, are you willing to gamble on 2x RU's, 2x Governments (let alone each state or territory on top of that), airline services and the status of a pandemic that we (including the health authorities) still don't understand, additional cost associated with travel and accommodation (especially if there are isolation requirements) just to play TT that does not rate well?

Or stay domestic and have far more control and agility to adapt and set a platform for the future? I can bet what sponsors and TV would prefer.

TT in the next 12 months is a high-risk venture at best and a short term investment while SANZAAR exists.

PS: Stoff - You are willingly working on COVID data? It (COVID and all its associated issues) is the bane of many Canberra public servants life atm. I am well over it!

 

[Rugbynutter39]

I am thinking more and more looking at own domestic super au and nz separate competition with work to create champions league with nz, oz and Japan. Latter probably more COVID driven.

The national club championship being floated / offered to broadcasters confuses me whether this is with domestic comp or instead of domestic comp. I just hope something announced soon as could have players otherwise locking in overseas contracts.

 

[dru]

I am thinking more and more looking at own domestic super au and nz separate competition with work to create champions league with nz, oz and Japan. Latter probably more COVID driven.

The national club championship being floated / offered to broadcasters confuses me whether this is with domestic comp or instead of domestic comp. I just hope something announced soon as could have players otherwise locking in overseas contracts.

Yep. It only makes sense if there is a TT. If there is a National Domestic Comp it's confusing. You might have some sort of short club comp championship but I dont think that is what is being discussed.

 

[hoggy]

Surely an NRC style comp is now starting to look more possible for next year. They're gonna look stupid organizing a TT and then have 6-9 months of uncertainty around whether it can proceed.

 

[dru]

If they go NRC for 2021 only they will need to sweet talk Reds and Waratahs. Think about the club disruption to split into two for twelve months then re-amalgamate for 2022.

 

[Quick Hands]

If they go NRC for 2021 only they will need to sweet talk Reds and Waratahs. Think about the club disruption to split into two for twelve months then re-amalgamate for 2022.

The way forward is to cut the NSWRU and the QRU right out of the picture. They need to be running community level rugby in their respective states - nothing more. They certainly shouldn't be organising professional rugby teams in a season long competition, that's yesterday's thinking.

 

[stoff]

Kiwis (PM) officially burst the TT bubble last week so that won't be back on the table again for a few months yet so the RU's probably just compared notes. I would also be betting that travel restrictions will be in place for quite a long time yet so it won't be straightforward. You also need to consider what the airlines will be doing I would suggest it will be a limited service so availability of flight options could cause issues and flight costs could go up.

So as a business proposition, are you willing to gamble on 2x RU's, 2x Governments (let alone each state or territory on top of that), airline services and the status of a pandemic that we (including the health authorities) still don't understand, additional cost associated with travel and accommodation (especially if there are isolation requirements) just to play TT that does not rate well?

Or stay domestic and have far more control and agility to adapt and set a platform for the future? I can bet what sponsors and TV would prefer.

TT in the next 12 months is a high-risk venture at best and a short term investment while SANZAAR exists.

PS: Stoff - You are willingly working on COVID data? It (COVID and all its associated issues) is the bane of many Canberra public servants life atm. I am well over it!

For clarity, my comments below assume that we get an equitable competition structure with NZ.

The SANZAAR part is relatively irrelevant. It will exist in the future to run the RC, just like the six nations organisation does up north. I cant see how the Super Rugby agreement doesn't have some sort of built in force majeure arrangement that will allow it to be dissolved if there is an inability to actually play the tournament.

The TT comp can be designed to respond to COVID outbreaks. It is imperfect if you have to implement a Plan B, but if that happens it will be likely that the competitors will be in the same boat to at least some extent. Broadcasters and sponsors will be factoring in disruption anyway - there is too much uncertainty around almost every factor as you have noted. Most of the problems you have highlighted can exist state to state in Australia.

The benefit you are missing in TT is that the potential market for eyeballs on the Australian teams grows by 4.5 million people, and there is a piggybacking of the NZ rugby brand in global rights sales. We also don't drop almost immediately from Super Rugby to NRC standards in play. We can't let difficult get in the way of better.

 

[hoggy]

You can design a TT to respond to a COVID crisis, but it will look bloody stupid and messy, just what rugby here needs another home run, and I would argue that the RA would be more wise starting to chase its home market of 25 million, than forever compromising themselves to suit NZ

 

[Dan54]

Yep and only way you will get a decent percentage of home market is if you get good enough players in comp, ask Soccer why more Australians seem to watch EPL/European soccer than A league. I work in construction, and in the 15 or so years I been in it, I have heard the average Joe talk AFL, league, super/test rugby, EPL soccer (heard a couple arguing Chelsea/Arsenal just this morning), but have never heard A league being discussed ( NRC for that matter). I not saying it never has been, but obviously not as much as other sports or we would of heard it sometime. like I said earlier my sidekick is a real soccer man, his teenage boys are same watching it all the time, but not A league because the players are not top level!

 

[stoff]

You can design a TT to respond to a COVID crisis, but it will look bloody stupid and messy, just what rugby here needs another home run, and I would argue that the RA would be more wise starting to chase its home market of 25 million, than forever compromising themselves to suit NZ

On comp design, given the draw is likley not going to be a full home and away, it is fairly simple to schedule it in three phases where only one has TT crossover matches. If there is a problem you sub in another round of all local matches. If Aus and NZ are still allowing people from outside of those countries to travel in, there is always a risk of local outbreak. The likelihood is the comp will be impacted, no matter where it is or who plays in it. It is not a unique TT issue.

We don't need to compromise to suit NZ, but we do need them as partners. The home market by and large doesn't care for the game and the game doesn't have the money to change that. This lowers revenues, lowers the player quality due to lower wages. The players the rest of the world will pay to see aren't here, meaning further reduced revenues or at least revenue opportunities. An Aus only comp is just going to be a farm league for Europe, Japan and the NRL.

If we have a PE partner who can fund a local comp until it gets some public interest up then we may be a chance of going it alone.

 

[hoggy]

But we've had 20 years of a competition with the best players in the World being available, with every layer of the game and every cent sacrificed to ensure that, yet we're just above the A-League in average Joe Office chat.