Will the Reds make the Final?

[Scotty]

They also nicked a game or two they could have lost. Tahs round 1 springs to mind and Brumbies in Canberra. Brumbies have been quite unfortunate in a few games as well. Chiefs in NZ, Bulls in SA, Reds in Canberra. We got a late win against the Cheetahs though.

I don't think the reds have won any games where they werent the better team over the 80, but conversely I think they were the better team vs the saders and had Bryce penalising them 2:1 plus didn't take a hold of the game when they should have.

 

[Scotty]

The Waratahs should beat the Bumblies at ANZ.

The waratahs should have beaten a lot of teams this year that they didn't!

 

[wamberal]

The waratahs should have beaten a lot of teams this year that they didn't!

Especially the Reds. The Tahs were definitely the better team on the night, in contradiction of your earlier post.

 

[Pieman]

Anyone know anything about Chris F'Sautia's injured shoulder?

It was reported that his left arm was in a sling after the game.

 

[Ghibli]

the Blues have found some end of year form and may also upset the Brumbies plans

The Waratahs should beat the Bumblies at ANZ.

Predictions obviously based on these teams' current form.

 

[Paradox]

I don't think the reds have won any games where they werent the better team over the 80, but conversely I think they were the better team vs the saders and had Bryce penalising them 2:1 plus didn't take a hold of the game when they should have.

Thought they had been outplayed over the 80 against Tahs and Brumbies. Tahs especially....but it's only my opinion. Hopefully both the Reds and Brumbies make the top 6!

 

[Paradox]

The Waratahs should beat the Bumblies at ANZ.

Not should beat the Brumbies, but can beat the Brumbies. On form, the Brumbies should win but this game is a worry and form will be thrown out the window.

 

[Sully]

The Waratahs should beat the Bumblies at ANZ.

You can't say it's on form. So on what basis should they beat them?

 

[mark_s]

You can't say it's on form. So on what basis should they beat them?

we are due

 

[Roundawhile]

My biggest concern is injury, especially against the tahs. They are always rugged affairs and with the tahs having nothing to lose, I think it will be even more so.........

 

[emuarse]

The Tahs have a big debt to repay to their coaching staff (rather than to their fans), and I believe this will be repaid on the weekend against the Brumbies. It will be all out war, as the ' Tahs feel that the Brumbies have succeeded where they have failed. I think the 'Tahs will probably have a convincing win.

 

[FairWeatherAussie]

As someone who just supports all the Australian rugby franchises, I have been supporting the Waratahs all this year. However now I'm really hoping they don't cause an upset and beat either the Brumbies or Reds, but are afraid, and have the feeling that they will win at least one of those games. The Welsh tests confirmed that the 'Tahs do have a strong contingent of international players who with coaching should be able to beat any team on their day.

 

[Paradox]

No doubting that.

 

[Sully]

I'm sure we have the same feeling as the Brumbies supporters. I hope it's them and not us.

 

[TOCC]

Has this been mentioned?
So in the event the Reds finish tied on points with another team, Reds are positioned in the better position as the other teams have already lost 1 more game then the Reds

The tie-breaker to settle table placings this year is "most wins" after SANZAR gave the boot to the 2011 method which split teams based on "the highest number of competition points accrued in the matches between the tied teams".

 

[kiap]

Has this been mentioned?
So in the event the Reds finish tied on points with another team, Reds are positioned in the better position as the other teams have already lost 1 more game then the Reds

Yes. Yes it has.

Actually wins came ahead of points difference last year so your source is slightly wrong. But otherwise it's a good thing.

 

[Penguin]

Not only is it a good thing, it's the right thing. A team with more wins should trump a team with more bonus points in such a situation.

 

[happyjack]

Would normally agree with you Penguin (especially as it will favor the Reds) but the issue in Super XV is that not every team plays every other team or even the same teams as the teams in their conference.
Check out the teams the Brumbies have avoided playing this year.
No perfect method in this situation.

 

[Penguin]

True Happyjack, that is a major flaw in the system, however we can't complain too much, the draw favoured the Reds last season.

 

[kiap]

Would normally agree with you Penguin (especially as it will favor the Reds) but the issue in Super XV is that not every team plays every other team or even the same teams as the teams in their conference.
Check out the teams the Brumbies have avoided playing this year.
No perfect method in this situation.

But those draw inequities apply to both methods. Wins are still a better determinant than the for-and-against difference.

You can see cheap points racked up after a result is all but sewn up, where a dominant side takes the foot off the gas (e.g. Brumbies-Force, or Bulls-Cheetahs two days ago) - or where a side gets blown out after unlucky injuries (e.g. Reds v Sharks). It's a minor thing because any larger differential can be trumped by 1 extra point on the ladder.

By contrast, cheap wins rare. Large wins are clearcut and deserved. Narrow wins can be lucky, but you still have to be close enough to the oppo on the day to get the upset. You have to put in to get those 4 ladder points from close wins.

Wins and losses are where it's at. Differentials....... not so much.