ARU Annual Report 2012 & Participation Growth

[p.Tah]

The discussion about junior clubs disappearing is interesting. If you jump onto other codes forums they have similar complaints. It appears with busy parents and kids who have other interests, sport participation doesn't hold the level interest it did 20-30 years ago.

Im not excusing the ARU however, they need to do a lot more than they are currently doing.

What concerns me with the irregular schools number, is that this becomes a key performance indicator for development officers because its an easy number to increase, and increase the overall participation numbers artificially. I'd hope that this isn't a focus at the expense of looking to boost the numbers in the regular participation numbers.

 

[I like to watch]

I have vague recollections of JON grading his performance for his last stint as a 6/10.
Wonder what he would have earnt with a 9/10 or 10/10?

 

[USARugger]

Jets

When you adjust for population growth the growth rate of 11.8% becomes closer to 1.1-1.2%. Statistical manipulation is a pretty old-hat trick used to justify all kinds of things. Off the top of my head 'Small But Healthy' comes to mind as well as justifying the minimum wage in the USA wouldn't have been/be possible without it.

Overpayed CEO, corrupt 'old boys' club administrations, lack of real growth outside of distorted figures and press conferences..this all echoes of my biggest issues with USARugby over the past several years. Looking forward to diving through some of these longer posts after I get done showering and eating.

 

[USARugger]

Here's some fun with numbers regarding the participation figures in the 2012 report as compared to the 2006 report when compared to the growth of the Australian general population between 2006-2012..

No offense to Women players but I have omitted those figures from the 'Totals' here as the focus of the discussion always seems to come back to Men's Wallabies repercussions.

This is also only a comparison of 15s playing figures, the Club Sevens/Sevens figures were not included as part of the 2006 report so including them in the 2012 report would horribly inflate these figures (I'll touch on this later). Also removed the 'Golden Oldies' figures from my 2012 totals.

For the purpose of this piece Totals should be read as follows 'Total - Figure Including Schools (2) (Figure Exluding Schools (2))'



2006 Report

ACT

Total - 14,382 (8,922)

NSWRU

Total - 77,305 (52,527)

QRU

Total -50,315 (46,154)

RWA

Total - 14,322 (8,170)

VRU

Total - 8,551 (5,499)

NTRU

Total - 2,257 (1,424)

TRU

Total - 3,322 (842)

SARU

Total - 4,001 (2,248)

Total Australian Male Rugby Union Participation from Age-Grade through Senior Club (Not Including SARU Figures Because of 2012 Data, for parity)

170,444 (123,538)


2012 Report

ACT

Total - 25,291 (6,606) - +75.85% growth/+12.64% annual growth (-25.95% growth/-4.33% annual growth)

NSWRU

Total - 93,845 (38,850) - +21.40% growth/+3.57% annual growth (-26.04% growth/-4.34% annual growth)

QRU

Total - 93,411 (28,125) - +86.51% growth/+14.42% annual growth (-39.06% growth/-6.51% annual growth)

RWA

Total - 14,295 (5,476) - -0.19% growth/-0.03 annual growth (-32.97% growth/-5.50% annual growth)

VRU

Total - 14,312 (2,329) - +67.37% growth/+11.29% annual growth (-57.65% growth/-9.61% annual growth)

NTRU

Total - 1,159 (686) - -48.65% growth/-8.11% annual growth (-51.83% growth/-8.64% annual growth)

TRU

Total - 374 (200) - -88.74% growth/-14.80% annual growth (-76.25% growth/-12.71% annual growth)

SARU

Total - 5084 (-1414) <---Pay attention to this figure - 27.07% growth/4.51% annual growth (-163% growth/-27.15% annual growth)

Total Australian Male Rugby Union Participation from Age-Grade through Senior Club (Not Including the FUBAR'd SARU figures)

242,687 (82,272) - +42.39% growth/+7.06% annual growth (-33.04% growth/-5.57% annual growth)


First off, the addition of the Sevens category inflates the playing figures in the 2012 Report. Just because the ARU wasn't keeping tabs or figures on the 7s game doesn't mean it didn't exist beforehand. What, you think over 5,000 kids around Canberra picked up a ball and played 7s for the first time in 2011? Let's be real for a second here. 2012 is only the second year the ARU is recording 7s figures at the sub-professional level so this 'explosive growth' could as much be them getting their act together and properly sourcing their playing figures as it is any real growth. 7s is also an arguably weak pathway to 15s. While better than nothing it has only produced a handful of 15s stars even in nations which have been using it actively as a developmental pathway for years now (New Zealand). It also conditions athletes in a way which must be accounted for and compensated by training during any transition from 7s to 15s, adding to the developmental burden of grooming new talent.

Second off, I have a huge fucking issue with this 'Schools(2)' figure being included in the totals for the territories and national level. This is just another easy way to hugely inflate the figures across the board. By their own definition this is just an estimate of the participants in one-off carnivals or knockouts, etc. This means that anyone who participated in these events was counted. So not only is it a weakly defined concept, but there is no recognition given to the fact that many of these kids will participate this one time and that will be it. Because of this, weighing these figures the same as that of players who are registered with the ARU and are playing structured Rugby Union on a regular basis is nothing short of a deliberate attempt to inflate figures or completely idiocy. These numbers would have been much more valuable if taken within their own context and not hitched onto the total playing figures as they are an entirely different beast. If only 1/100 or less of these kids is ever going to actually commit to regular Rugby Union after one of these festivals or tournaments why the fuck would you ever attach the entire figure like it means anything at all? To top it off, this figure is completely ambiguous as to the sex of the participants.

The SARU figure for 2012 is a perfect example of this and another issue, the ARU has to be double-counting participants who are registered in multiple categories. For example, according to the figures here and what I've gotten out of them if you registered as a 7s player and a 15s player in the same territory you would be double-counted for the ARU Yearly Report. Because of this, when I adjusted the Southern Australia figure to omit the Schools(2) figure they actually ended up with less than -1,000 players because I had already removed the 7s players figure (remember, this whole rant is about the growth of Rugby Union in terms of the future of the Wallabies). This is just shitty, lazy work by the ARU and brings the viability of this entire data set into question. In spite of this, I will continue.

In 2006 the total population of Australia was 20,848,760. Adjusting for the 'Other Territories' figure (can't use them when comparing Unions) and after omitting Women (sorry again ladies!) we get a total male population of 10,282,433. By territory the male population in 2006 was:

NSW - 3,375,500
Victoria - 2,535,068
QLD - 2,041,291
SA - 774,053
WA - 1,039,045
Tas - 241,556
NT - 109,315
ACT - 165,303

In 2012 the total male population of Australia was 11,161,967 (+8.55% growth rate or +1.425% annual growth rate ). By territory:

NSW - 3,605,734 (+6.82% growth/+1.14% annual growth)
Victoria - 2,767,263 (+9.16% growth/+1.53% annual growth)
QLD - 2,237,049 (+9.59% growth/+1.60% annual growth)
SA - 819,116 (+5.82% growth/+0.97% annual growth)
WA - 1,176,108 (+13.19% growth/+2.20% annual growth)
Tas - 255,598 (+5.81% growth/+0.97% annual growth)
NT - 115,666 (+5.81% growth/+0.97% annual growth)
ACT - 183,876 (+11.24% growth/1.87% annual growth)

So when we look at all these figures what do we get? Well, when you remove 7s from the picture as well as the 'School(2)' figures a starkly different picture than what the ARU is reporting emerges. Reliability of the ARU data set aside (footnote: it doesn't appear to be reliable at all, they fucking suck at collecting data) the participation of male athletes between the Youth and Senior Club levels has declined by over 5.5% annually between 2006-2012 for a total decline of just under one-third.

Even in the areas of highest population growth (QLD and WA) we see growth rates of -6.51% and -5.50% respectively.

The icing on the cake here is that if you take the 'Total Growth (Less GO)' figure of +7.2% from the 2012 ARU Report and compare it to the +8.55% growth rate of the Australian Male population in the same time period..I think you all get the picture here. Even if adjusted to remove the Women's stats from the 'Total Growth (Less GO)' figure we end up with either slightly negative, extremely marginally positive or no growth at all in this time period.

The only conclusion that can be drawn from this is that the ARU has failed spectacularly at increasing the number of male participants at all amateur levels of 15s Rugby Union in Australia. It is literally only a matter of time until the impact of this is being felt at the Super Rugby and Wallabies level. I fear that if things are not turned around soon we could experience a relative 'Dark Age' of several generations coming through underdeveloped and with less world-class players than the generations preceding them. Privately, I actually believe this process has already started and has been slowly creeping up on us since the early 2000s. But that's another post for another day, as there are many more variables involved there (player development, coaching, etc). Enjoy!


Sources: ARU Annual Reports and Australian Census Data

Equation for Growth Rates: PR = (Vpresent-Vpast)/Vpast x100

Footnote: If anyone at the ARU or involved with Super Rugby or even just hiring in the rugby world in general is reading this, I am graduating in the coming year and looking for employment!

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Pluralistic Ignorance, a situation where "no one believes, but everyone believes that everyone else believes."

Does this explain JO'Ns salary and the game withering on his two watches at the helm?

Excellent analysis USARugger. Almost like the little boy in the climax of Hans Christian Anderson's "The Emporor's New Clothes", your post seems to be the equivalent of "Why is that fat old bloke out there ponsing around in the middle of the road with no clothes on?"'

Let's see what sort of spin the climate change deniers put on this to justify the wonderful health of the grass roots and overall growth of our game.

 

[Quick Hands]

When reading participation numbers - I only look at registered junior, seniors and schools 1. ( sorry ladies). I have heard anecdotally that some well funded girls private schools such as PLC on the North shore of Sydney now offer rugby sevens as a sport. As we have seen, there has been a massive push into women's sevens ( women's 15s funding has dried up) and hopefully this should increase the supporter base.
One small ray of light is that Allambie rugby club on Sydney's northern beaches has reformed after many years with 100 players this year.
Has sydney junior club rugby really shrunken so much and how was it so big when the game was amateur, they had no money and the mungos were picking the eyes out of our senior ranks?

What's happened at Allambie is fantastic, but unfortunately it's the exception rather than the rule.

Why junior rugby has shrunk could be for many reasons, I suspect that one of them was that in the amateur days, 8 GPS schools and 6 CAS schools produced enough players to fill NSW sides (only NSW & Qld in those days) and the local junior clubs filled the rest of the places. As the population of those traditional rugby rugby areas aged and junior clubs folded, there was no real thought or strategy to expand the game into new population areas in the west of Sydney. Consequently, rugby league was given unchallenged access to that area, with soccer as the only real competition - so all boys who wanted to play a contact type sport played league.

It's only recently when the game is now fully professional and there are 5 super rugby teams has it dawned on administrators that the base of the pyramid is too small. Hence an attempt at self delusion in the figures.

Another point to be made is that in the 60s and 70s, rugby - even junior club rugby - was largely a white anglo-saxon game played by boys whose parents were born in Aust. (I am using my own experience here - please correct me politely if I am wrong) Today, in Sydney anyway, there is a significant percentage of players who are born or their parents were born overseas. UK, Sth Af, NZ, Pacific Islands - nothing wrong with this, they are valued citizens and members of the rugby community. But it begs the question, what happened to the children of the players of the 60s and 70s?

The answer is that many are playing soccer or league, because there is no junior rugby option where they live. I know plenty of people who fit into this category - their boys play with their mates from school and league is the only show in town where they live.

Having left the west of Sydney to league, it will be much more difficult for rugby to gain a significant foothold in this area.

And judging by the pathetically shortsighted decision to not use Israel Folau in western Sydney by letting him play for Uni instead of Parramatta, I'm very sceptical that the ARU/NSWRU even recognise that there is a problem to be addressed.

This of course is related to the problem of appoining GPS types as CEO. I have nothing against Bill Pulver, by all accounts he is a good bloke, has rugby at heart and is good at business. The problem though is that his experience of rugby is as a player for Shore, and a parent of Mosman Rugby and Shore. No competition from league in any of those safe havens - his world view of rugby is shaped by his experience. He may well read the figures and they accord with the views of someone with his rugby experience.

There is also an excellent and damning analysis of the ARU participation figures at;
http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/why-youre-right-to-feel-skeptical-about-the-aru-participation-numbers/?utm_source=Forum list&utm_campaign=2dd07e701d-Anzac_day_email&utm_medium=email

 

[Hugh Jarse]

And a double whammy with Scott Allen's analysis of the Financial Accounts of the ARU for 2005-2012.
Here:http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/aru-financial-position/

I think it is time to bust out a bit of Fun Boy Three from the 80's

 

[Quick Hands]

I have vague recollections of JON grading his performance for his last stint as a 6/10.
Wonder what he would have earnt with a 9/10 or 10/10?

I wish that I could award myself pay rises and bonuses based on self-analysis.

JON is merely another corporate operator, whose existence seems to revolve around, KPIs, bonuses and rubber-stamping boards. See any large company - rarely is the long term strength of the company or its customers or employees the issue, only the share price.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Like much of corporate Australia, no one has the guts or operational knowledge to ask the hard questions of the bean counters anymore. It is a mutual admiration society, and as long as the figures as presented sound all right, then there can't be anything wrong can there?

The accountants rule, no one is prepared to take any risk challenging the current rulers. The Boardroom shiraz is too nice.

There is no long term strategic thinking because that affects this years bottom line, and that is all we are interested in. Keep the share price about what it is, and you don't have to answer too many hard questions. Buy some decent nibbles for the AGM and even less tough questions will be asked.

 

[Quick Hands]

I think it's widley acknowledged that the growth figures published by the ARU in its annual report are completely fictional. I'd therefore pose a couple of questions:

1. Does anyone in the ARU seriously believe that player numbers have increased by 68% since 2009?

If they do, they are that out of touch with reality that they should resign forthwith.

If they don't really think that the figures are accurate then :

2. Why would they release statistics which are so obviously inaccurate to the point of being dishonest and can be so easily discredited?

The fact is, it's hard to tell whether these guys are so out of touch that they actually believe these figures or they have so little regard for the rugby public that they would think that we would all just sit back and go 'wow, the game's in such great shape, those blokes in at the ARU are geniuses, pay them more money'

It's hard to know whether to laugh or cry.

 

[USARugger]

Quick Hands

One thing that I think has been playing a direct role in the severe inflation in the 2011 and 2012 reports has been the draw of Olympic Sevens. Obviously the ARU sees this is as a chance to get some cash from the AOC. I mean, they clearly didn't give muc of a flying fuck about the Aussie 7s team until very recently. Now what I have heard but have yet to confirm is that the AOC has changed their payout system to be participant-based. This is all of the motivation in the world for the ARU to explosively inflate the playing figures. Just look at the 2011 Sevens figures then the 2012 figures, it's pretty hilarious.

I really do hope from the bottom of my heart that internally the ARU already knows what I uncovered here. If they don't then the entire structure needs to be cleaned out. Seriously if JON was making ~2mil they can afford to hire some bean counters who can manipulate the figures in a way a college student can't dissect in ~25 minutes.

To answer #2, most people won't bother or don't know how to take the figures apart. That's why major media publications get away with running horribly skewed and misleading charts/iconographic on a literally daily basis.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

#2 answer. Those with their snout in the rugby boardroom benefits trough probably can't be bothered to actually read figures prepared by overworked interns. Why should they?

Look at the level of "analysis" coming from conventional media scribes. Think Grumbles and his gossip column. There is little threat to the ARU that there will be any serious questioning of whatever they publish. Up until now.

 

[USARugger]

The fact that Grumbles is making as much money as he is to literally get drunk and make shit up for two pages worth or writing every week makes my fucking blood boil.

 

[Groucho]

How can JON love the game of rugby knowing he is ripping $2 fucking million dollars out of the game when some parents, clubs and schools dont have a cent to their name? I'm glad Pulver has millions in the bank coz if he cares he wont be stripping the equivalent of 15 development officers from the game.

JON is probably a lot richer than Pulver, given his background.

 

[Quick Hands]

Quick Hands

One thing that I think has been playing a direct role in the severe inflation in the 2011 and 2012 reports has been the draw of Olympic Sevens. Obviously the ARU sees this is as a chance to get some cash from the AOC. I mean, they clearly didn't give muc of a flying fuck about the Aussie 7s team until very recently. Now what I have heard but have yet to confirm is that the AOC has changed their payout system to be participant-based. This is all of the motivation in the world for the ARU to explosively inflate the playing figures. Just look at the 2011 Sevens figures then the 2012 figures, it's pretty hilarious.

I really do hope from the bottom of my heart that internally the ARU already knows what I uncovered here. If they don't then the entire structure needs to be cleaned out. Seriously if JON was making ~2mil they can afford to hire some bean counters who can manipulate the figures in a way a college student can't dissect in ~25 minutes.

To answer #2, most people won't bother or don't know how to take the figures apart. That's why major media publications get away with running horribly skewed and misleading charts/iconographic on a literally daily basis.

You're right and your analysis was excellent and most of use couldn't pull the data apart in that way.

The point is though that the figures are so obviously flawed that any of us at grass roots level just look at them in comlete disbelief and astonishment. Your analysis confirms what we all know, rather than serves to convince us one way or another.

The next step leaves only 2 options unfortunately:

Either the ARU board accepts the validity of the data and thinks that rugby is powering along at all levels,

OR

The ARU board realises that the data is flawed to the point of being dishonest and published it anyway.

I'm leaning towards the latter, because surely any intelligent person receiving those figures would question them? (I'd be reasonably sure that someone in ARU HQ could provide to the board the same analysis as you.)

 

[Quick Hands]

#2 answer. Those with their snout in the rugby boardroom benefits trough probably can't be bothered to actually read figures prepared by overworked interns. Why should they?

Look at the level of "analysis" coming from conventional media scribes. Think Grumbles and his gossip column. There is little threat to the ARU that there will be any serious questioning of whatever they publish. Up until now.

You'd like to think that at least one board member would question the data and the way that they are being used.

The conventional rugby media are hopeless sycophants. Other than night club incidents, I can't recall the Australian rugby media exposing any shortcomings of the game or its administrators.

It all gives a lie to the traditional rugby narrative though, that league is a sport played, administered and supported by boofheads, while rugby is played, administered and supported by highly intelligent men who have nothing but the game at heart. League administrators (and soccer and AFL) have to withstand a withering analysis and criticism and mostly seem to get it right.

While all sports manipulate the data to make themselves look good, no other sport would contemplate turning a decline in numbers into a 69% increase. They would be frightened of being exposed and held to riducule.

 

[Cpt Crow Eater]

So what are our options as rugby watching folk?

I think it's fair to say that most on this forum are extremeley passionant about the game, but what can we do to improve the state of the game?

The ARU should be convalescing right now. Do we wait and see if the Pulveriser changes things?

Do we petition the Journio's for some more hard hitting stories based on more than just speculation that someone with 10 years left on his contract will be going overseas or to league??

Boycotts? How do we let the ARU know that we are angry and demand things to change??

At the moment I feel as though I can see the Iceberg coming, but the captain has just passed out from drinking too much rum..........

 

[USARugger]

So what are our options as rugby watching folk?

I think it's fair to say that most on this forum are extremeley passionant about the game, but what can we do to improve the state of the game?

The ARU should be convalescing right now. Do we wait and see if the Pulveriser changes things?

Do we petition the Journio's for some more hard hitting stories based on more than just speculation that someone with 10 years left on his contract will be going overseas or to league??

Boycotts? How do we let the ARU know that we are angry and demand things to change??

At the moment I feel as though I can see the Iceberg coming, but the captain has just passed out from drinking too much rum....

Sometimes you have to hit the iceberg before the designers are ready to acknowledge the ship was poorly built and the navigator was drunk the entire time, unfortunately.

Grassroots activism never hurt anyone though. I think supporting your local subby or village club in any way would be something anyone could do to pitch in. Fact is right now there isn't a lot a single, or even moderately sized group of people can do when there's already a national governing body in place. The ARU has more or less completely shit the bed in terms of growing and supporting the local clubs (or really anything that isn't private school rugby, but hey that marginalization isn't totally killing the game or anything..), I think this quote from the 2010 "Garling Report" on NSW Junior Rugby sums it up:

“For twenty years I have been in contact with every School in my area
and I have attended many presentations where the other codes are also
represented. AFL will have more than one organiser usually properly
attire
d in the Swans gear and often will have one of the Swans players
there. The NRL always have one of the local club players again properly
attired. Soccer similarly has a presence. I am the showpiece of rugby.
What does anyone think the result is ?”


Quick Hands
Either possibility is equally upsetting.
Maybe with the new financial report these journos will start to realize that the ARU needs them much more than they need the ARU? Would be nice to see mainstream criticism.

 

[Quick Hands]

Sometimes you have to hit the iceberg before the designers are ready to acknowledge the ship was poorly built and the navigator was drunk the entire time, unfortunately.

.

You've hit the nail on the head here. Unfortunately, I'm not sure if the administrators have heard of icebergs. At the moment they're in the 1st class salon sipping cognac and telling stories about the tries they scored when Kings played Scots in 1965. They believe that their ship is unsinkable, so why would they worry about icebergs, even if they've heard of them?

The problem being, if ones rugby world view is shaped as a GPS schoolboy and a GPS parent and any junior club experience that you might possess is in a rugby safe-haven like Mosman or Pymble, then that person may well think that everything is fine.

 

[Quick Hands]

Pluralistic Ignorance, a situation where "no one believes, but everyone believes that everyone else believes."

Does this explain JO'Ns salary and the game withering on his two watches at the helm?

Excellent analysis USARugger. Almost like the little boy in the climax of Hans Christian Anderson's "The Emporor's New Clothes", your post seems to be the equivalent of "Why is that fat old bloke out there ponsing around in the middle of the road with no clothes on?"'

Let's see what sort of spin the climate change deniers put on this to justify the wonderful health of the grass roots and overall growth of our game.

It was with a wry smile that I read in this morning's paper of the appointment of an Australian, Brett Gosper to head the IRB. Among other things, he said that he started playing rugby with Artarmon JRFC in the 6s back in the 1970s. One of the very clubs that I noted on the previous page which no longer exist.