Aus vs NZ - 1st Test Sydney 17Aug2013

[aeneas]

Why do you say that, is Hansen meant to say he lies there at night wondering who will play for Wallabies. I would say exactly same thing as he said, it just like Link saying All Blacks under pressure because they are rebuilding. You guys really need to calm down and realise the coaches have to answer a reporters question some way. I know when I coached admitedly st awful lot lower level I always said to my team I didn't care who opposition played, we played our game!!
On game itself, I must admit to wondering about how Luatua will go, not as vigorous as Messam at breakdown, but another real good lineout option, though coming into team so late may negate that slightly. Really looking forward to the game, and appropiately nervous how it will go!!

Here here.

Its been a long two weeks in a rugby mad country, mid season with no meaningful rugby to talk about aside from the build up to this test. Hansen to my mind simply answered a question.

 

[Scotty]

He'll probably come on with 30 to go as part of a change from a field position game to an attacking one. Link has picked plenty of kickers and lineout options so there's little doubt how the first part of the game will be played: attack their defensive lineout.

The big questions are:

1. Will he come on if we are winning?

2. Will he come on at 10 or 15?

 

[Scotty]

MMM to go hammer and tongs for as long as he can with Fardy to do the same when he comes into the fray. Sio to team up with his Brumby front row mates early in the 2nd for a potentially stronger scrum.
To'omua to try and smash Cruden and test Nonu's crook ankle.
QC (Quade Cooper) and Kuridrani in the last 30 to try and open them up.
It may not all go to plan but it sure will be good to watch them give it a shot!

We will probably see Fardy at lock and Gill replace MMM for an ultra mobile pack and a wider game plan. Will also make for a strong breakdown.

 

[biggsy]

One more sleep,

 

[No4918]

The big questions are:

1. Will he come on if we are winning?

2. Will he come on at 10 or 15?

1. Yes

2. I think it will be at 15. Mogg is the biggest question mark in the backline, doubt he will see out 80. If Cooper comes on at 10 i think AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) will move to 15 when Kuridrani comes on.

 

[emuarse]

Anyone care to speculate why you would carry two specialist 10's in a 23? I am confident that Link has considered this selection and has a sound reason but I can't work out what it might be.

Well QC (Quade Cooper) can play full back if required, and To'omua can also fill in at No 12.
So if the inside Centre is injured, To'omua moves out one position, and QC (Quade Cooper) goes fly half. Kuridrani will cover outside centre off the bench, and will probably come on in second half anyway. If a winger is injured, Kuridrani or Mogg will go there, with QC (Quade Cooper) going to Mogg's position (as already mentioned).
So all positions are covered for injury.
Otherwise QC (Quade Cooper) will replace To'omua at some stage during the game to alter the dynamics of the game (it's all in the plan, silly).

 

[Scrubber2050]

Good teams - just comes down to mindset - who wants to win
AND a missed tackle, dropped ball, forward pass - in other words - a mistake
Go the Wallabies

 

[emuarse]

Normally in a pack you have a forward or two who can carry well a bit wider, either targetting a lazy forward in the backline or running over the shoulder of a back. Without Higgers, Hooper is the next best. MMM, Mowen, Fardy aren't too bad at it, but they don't have the same impact as Higgers, Hooper, or from NZ, Read, Whitelock, Romano, etc.

Hooper is not there just to carry it up the guts, if you wanted that, might as well pick Gill as he will do just about an effective job and offer that little bit more over the ball.

We're all forgetting Moore. He loves having a rampaging run up the inside backs channel. Looking at him last night on Foxtel's Rugby HQ, I didn't realize just how solid he is.

 

[emuarse]

Yes I know they carry tight but you still want at least 5 metres.

This is a test, not a Super 15 game.

 

[vidiot]

Anyone care to speculate why you would carry two specialist 10's in a 23? I am confident that Link has considered this selection and has a sound reason but I can't work out what it might be.

To'omua is obviously a debutant and I guess there is a (pretty skinny) chance it could all go off the rails.

But I think the real reason is that between Cooper and To'omua the wallabies have two completely different approaches to play the game, which is an awesome changeup to have from the bench when you want/need to change the dynamic.

We've had years of either minimal bench use or (more recently) subs that provide only backup. (Simmons falls into this category, I can see why you start him but putting him to change the game?)

Now we have S Sio (bam!), WTF Cooper, Kuridrani, and Fardy joining Kepu and Gill, the exceptions to the rule above.

Looking at Fainga'a you can see why someone like Anae got a second look - he's a strong ball carrier and hitter also and if his set piece was solid enough....

 

[fatprop]

This side looks designed to work hard, I expect to see them getting off their arses and going around the corner with Genia driving the play. I see somewhat the same approach as Deans was attempting, but with more suitable units

It will depend on the error rate to me, and how well we manage transition from turnovers

The other challenge is going to be the kicking game. I would assume the plan will be to deny the AB's the ball, how does that affect Mogg? and kick return, and will To'omua get much ball? or will Genia be the game manager with his forwards?

I have no idea how this game will go

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

 

[wamberal]

I have no idea how this game will go

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

Well, at least the players will know what the game plan is. There was a lot of scuttlebutt that Deans used to confuse them, rather than enlighten them.


MMM is the wild card for mine. If he goes as well as we all believe he can, and stays injury-free, he could give the ABs a lot to worry about. They know very little about him. Then again, we don't know him all that well, really.


Plus the back three, on their day, could be very, very exciting.

 

[Muttonbird]

If Australia win they got to #2 in the world, they can go to #1 in the world by winning by 17 or more.

Really? I find that hard to believe.

 

[Muttonbird]

Far from certain.

As for the bellyaching i think the majority of that was to do with JOC (James O'Connor). It would have been far less an issue of To'omua was picked. The other thing that got people offside was the inconsistency's in Deans reasoning for the non-selection.

Agreed. He painted himself into a corner with his anti-Cooper stance, then was left shuffling his only quality players around the paddock whilst then having to justify every move to the media.

 

[cyclopath]

Really? I find that hard to believe.

I read that at first and thought it said we need to "win 17", which I thought was about right to get back to #1.
But I can't see a win by 17 doing it.

 

[Deputy Van Halen]

To go off on a bit of a tangent, the announcement of the team and prior to that, the 30 man squad, has given the rugby public an update on where various players stand in the pecking order.

Benn Robinson has clearly gone down substantially. This one isn't even up for debate. He's gone from being our first picked prop to not being in the top 4. I expect he'll play tests during the Rugby Championship but it's a shock he's not playing the first one.

Hugh Pyle has been highly backed for a while and most people would be somewhere between angry and disappointed that he didn't make the 30 at the very least. Is it possible that he really doesn't stand out in training when up against the other locks? Super Rugby shows him as a standout player albeit as part of an average scrum.

Nick Phipps - Nic White has surpassed him which was certainly on the cards last year if White had not got injured. No one is overly surprised by this. I think the contest is close though; they both other a very different style of game with different upsides.

Dave Dennis and Ben McCalman have both dropped slightly but have largely been replaced by players that either weren't available or hadn't made a particularly strong case previously.

Kane Douglas has dropped down the list substantially as he was previously a starter. I certainly think we'll see him play tests in the RC in the next few weeks though. There are only three pure locks in the squad and he's one of them.

Hugh McMeniman is obviously right back in favour but this realistically only required a reasonable stretch of him being match fit and a test series coinciding. He's always been very capable.

Obviously my provincial bias wants Pyle in the team, but it's not stretch to see why Simmons got the nod. Douglas is the TH lock backup and that's a roll guys like MMM and Fardy probably can't really fill as well as Douglas can. Simmons is the specialist LH lock, a lineout general and has a known successful combination with Kev. I still don't think Simmons is the stand out LH lock in the country, but to be fair his form towards the end of the season was much better and while he'll never threaten the line he's no slouch in defense. I imagine if anything happens to Simmons, Pyle will be parachuted in. Naturally this all speculation but it's not a huge leap of faith

As for the others? No idea on Robbo but I guess the theory that the new rules don't favour him carries weight, I'd still have him in there. Dennis? Never done much at wallabies level without being atrocious either, MMM and Fardy play a similar role only angrier. McCalman will be the next of the rank if either of those go down.

Phipps? While he always seems to play his best for the wobs he's just the third best half back in the aussie comp, simple as that. If we're going with safety first game White's a much better choice.

 

[Pfitzy]

And what happens on the day if Kev is injured? Who is the backup TH lock? Sure as shit it ain't Fardy or Simmons.

McMeniman?

 

[Muttonbird]

I read that at first and thought it said we need to "win 17", which I thought was about right to get back to #1.
But I can't see a win by 17 doing it.

Oh dear. I just looked at the ranking system and immediately regretted it.

Allow for home advantage:
NZ 90.08
AUS 86.87 + 3 (for home advantage) = 89.87

Calculate rating gap:
90.08 - 89.97 = 0.21 (in favour of NZ)

Check the possible core rating changes:
Graphs involved, gets messy, excel spreadsheet here...

http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=irb core rating changes calculator&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CFMQFjAG&url=http://www.rugby.be/new/uploaded/intern/RankingSystem.xls&ei=AGYNUu3qB8eBiQexqYDgAw&usg=AFQjCNHbqYxHuISWN9zpzqP0uo9W3LBLkw&bvm=bv.50768961,d.dGI

Anyhoo, if AUS wins the core rating change is 0.979

Apply weighting factors:
0.979 x 1.5 (for winning by 15+ points) = 1.4685 ranking points to change hands

Ranking points change:
NZ 90.08 - 1.4685 = 88.6115
AUS 86.87 + 1.4685 = 88.3385

While there will be a massive shift in the force should AUS win by more than 15, NZ would still retain #1 spot by 0.273 points, according to the calculator above.

 

[barbarian]

Ah damn. I had visions of us running in a few late tries to win by 17, with McKenzie being chaired around the ground before promptly retiring from all coaching forever with a 100% record and the #1 ranking in his pocket.
.

 

[JSRF10]

Ah damn. I had visions of us running in a few late tries to win by 17, with McKenzie being chaired around the ground before promptly retiring from all coaching forever with a 100% record and the #1 ranking in his pocket.
.

Well how about he wins by 17 tomorrow, wins by 17 next week in Wellington then gets chaired around the field, promptly retiring with an 100% record, #1 ranking and the first Bled winning coach in ten years