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Australian Bid for 2027 World Cup

LeCheese

LeCheese

Peter Johnson (47)
Slim 293 said:
Christy Doran should stick to leaking team selections...

www.theroar.com.au

Breathe easy Aussies, World Rugby has devalued the 2027 RWC by expansion - and even the Wallabies are safe

PARIS – Breathe easy Australia, you won’t be bowing out in the pool stage of the 2027 Rugby World Cup. Your passage through to…
www.theroar.com.au
Click to expand...
Yeah, poor takes from him. The growth in T2 sides, and the number of upsets (or close to it) we've seen over the previous 2 or 3 world cups, will likely continue. Counting his chickens before they hatch imo
 
The Ghost of Raelene

The Ghost of Raelene

Andrew Slack (58)
Slim 293 said:
Christy Doran should stick to leaking team selections...

www.theroar.com.au

Breathe easy Aussies, World Rugby has devalued the 2027 RWC by expansion - and even the Wallabies are safe

PARIS – Breathe easy Australia, you won’t be bowing out in the pool stage of the 2027 Rugby World Cup. Your passage through to…
www.theroar.com.au
Click to expand...
This really sucks.

Shouldn't underestimate the benefit of including more nations in the show piece event. You can bet WR (World Rugby) want the US in any RWC. Even a minor media presence is better than the absolute 0 it's currently receiving. I know Soccer is different in the potential for upsets, but look at the coverage the Socceroos can get just by qualifying for the tournament.
 
Braveheart81

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
It's obviously dumb. Making the round of 16 doesn't become the equivalent of what the quarter finals are now. Missing the quarter finals in 2027 would be exactly the same as missing the quarter finals now.

To completely miss mentioning that improving the fairness of the 2023 tournament by having equal turnarounds and therefore not playing games for most of the week means the 2023 tournament has felt more disjointed is poor. Clearly the addition of four teams helps keep that fairness but also allows you to have more matchdays each week.
 
Wallaby Man

Wallaby Man

Trevor Allan (34)
LeCheese said:
Yeah, poor takes from him. The growth in T2 sides, and the number of upsets (or close to it) we've seen over the previous 2 or 3 world cups, will likely continue. Counting his chickens before they hatch imo
Click to expand...
I’m a data guy so crunched some numbers on the last 5 RWC.

Many have been saying this has been the most competitive yet, my eyes have been seeing the reverse (minus the qtrs).

Out of the 5 RWC this has been the most points scored (winners) and 2nd least (losers). It also has the highest margin of victory in the 5 I looked at (2007-2023).

43.8 points per game scored by the winning side and only 12.3 for the losing side. For a 31.5 points differential. Beating out 2007 which had 30.15pts differential.

2011 was the best for competitive games at 16.88 difference in scoreline. It’s almost half of this years. I’m not sure given the state of some national teams if the health of the game is as rosy as many like to think.
 
Dctarget

Dctarget

John Eales (66)
Wallaby Man said:
I’m a data guy so crunched some numbers on the last 5 RWC.

Many have been saying this has been the most competitive yet, my eyes have been seeing the reverse (minus the qtrs).

Out of the 5 RWC this has been the most points scored (winners) and 2nd least (losers). It also has the highest margin of victory in the 5 I looked at (2007-2023).

43.8 points per game scored by the winning side and only 12.3 for the losing side. For a 31.5 points differential. Beating out 2007 which had 30.15pts differential.

2011 was the best for competitive games at 16.88 difference in scoreline. It’s almost half of this years. I’m not sure given the state of some national teams if the health of the game is as rosy as many like to think.
Click to expand...
Can't really ignore the quarters. Most competitive in that there were 4 teams who all could claim to be favourites. Now there are more heavyweight teams, there are more lopsided smashings. Quarters is where it starts getting interesting.
 
LeCheese

LeCheese

Peter Johnson (47)
Wallaby Man said:
I’m a data guy so crunched some numbers on the last 5 RWC.

Many have been saying this has been the most competitive yet, my eyes have been seeing the reverse (minus the qtrs).

Out of the 5 RWC this has been the most points scored (winners) and 2nd least (losers). It also has the highest margin of victory in the 5 I looked at (2007-2023).

43.8 points per game scored by the winning side and only 12.3 for the losing side. For a 31.5 points differential. Beating out 2007 which had 30.15pts differential.

2011 was the best for competitive games at 16.88 difference in scoreline. It’s almost half of this years. I’m not sure given the state of some national teams if the health of the game is as rosy as many like to think.
Click to expand...
Fair enough - but as a data guy, you'd also know that stats are meaningless without context. Competition-wide averages of scorelines don't capture the finer details of unexpected wins, close losses, demonstrable progress of some nations' performances, etc.

I'm not suggesting that there isn't still a wide gap between T1 and T2 nations, but I think we're starting to see some T2 nations more able to step up to the plate and compete.
 
Wallaby Man

Wallaby Man

Trevor Allan (34)
LeCheese said:
Fair enough - but as a data guy, you'd also know that stats are meaningless without context. Competition-wide averages of scorelines don't capture the finer details of unexpected wins, close losses, demonstrable progress of some nations' performances, etc.

I'm not suggesting that there isn't still a wide gap between T1 and T2 nations, but I think we're starting to see some T2 nations more able to step up to the plate and compete.
Click to expand...
This year also had the most 50+ score lines (12). Which was more than a 100% increase on 2019 (5). 2007 had 11, it strangely dropped by -2 every edition. 2011 (9), 2015 (7), 2019 (5).
 
Braveheart81

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
Maybe a better long term exercise would be to subjectively rank the pool games.

Pool A - Games that were close or closer than expected and could be conceived as good games.
France vs NZ, France vs Uruguay, Uruguay vs Namibia

Pool B
Ireland vs South Africa

Pool C
Georgia vs Portugal
Fiji vs Australia
Wales vs Fiji
Fiji vs Georgia
Fiji vs Portugal

Pool D
Argentina vs Samoa
Japan vs Samoa
England vs Samoa
Argentina vs Japan

Maybe some of these should be excluded and maybe some others should be added.
 
TheHaydog

TheHaydog

Stan Wickham (3)
Definitely going to be some new teams present at the next RWC which will be a positive for the game, curious to see who people think they are going to be.
 
Braveheart81

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
TheHaydog said:
Definitely going to be some new teams present at the next RWC which will be a positive for the game, curious to see who people think they are going to be.
Click to expand...

USA, Spain, Canada and Hong Kong are four highest ranked sides that didn't make it.

It will somewhat depend how places are allocated within regions but my guess is that they'd give all four of these teams the potential to get there through repechage/playoffs etc.
 
TheHaydog

TheHaydog

Stan Wickham (3)
In its current form, adding 2 automatic spots to both Europe and the Americas would make the most sense. Before a dog's breakfast of a repechage takes place. If any teams from 2023 were to miss out next time, it would probably be either or both Romania and Namibia. The latter might end up being overtaken by what seems to be a promising Zimbabwe that beat the US at U20 level and the former got obliterated 102-0 by Spain at U18. Neither of them has good trajectories at the top level either.

Netherlands and Brazil to debut. Spain and the US to return.
 
The_Brown_Hornet

The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
Wallaby Man said:
I’m a data guy so crunched some numbers on the last 5 RWC.

Many have been saying this has been the most competitive yet, my eyes have been seeing the reverse (minus the qtrs).

Out of the 5 RWC this has been the most points scored (winners) and 2nd least (losers). It also has the highest margin of victory in the 5 I looked at (2007-2023).

43.8 points per game scored by the winning side and only 12.3 for the losing side. For a 31.5 points differential. Beating out 2007 which had 30.15pts differential.

2011 was the best for competitive games at 16.88 difference in scoreline. It’s almost half of this years. I’m not sure given the state of some national teams if the health of the game is as rosy as many like to think.
Click to expand...

I'm also a data guy as part of my day job. One thing I'm interested in: are the lower ranked sides more or less likely to cause an upset now?
 
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