COVID-19 Stuff Here

[formerflanker]

This may be a huge game changer for Australia and our methods of dealing with the virus.
From the Financial Review:
Preliminary results of studies to discover how many people are naturally immune to COVID-19 suggest between 250,000 and 500,00 Australians may have already been infected, NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant says.
The analysis, based on blood samples taken from pregnant women and pathology tests used for other purposes, indicates the 12,428 official diagnoses vastly underestimate the spread of the novel coronavirus in Australia.

“If we look at how many people in the community that have been exposed and infected, and we are doing serological surveys, so this is not absolute, we would probably estimate that it may be around 1 to 2 per cent of the population has been exposed to COVID,” Dr Chant said.
If 1 per cent of people in Australia have been infected, or 250,000, the 126 deaths equates to a fatality rate of 0.05 per cent, which is similar to influenza.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I've seen similar reports from the US, such as this one, based serological surveys:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-per...y-more-reported-had-covid-19-studies-estimate

Which estimates that as many as 24x as many people have been infected with the virus than previously thought in certain parts of the country. Their cumulative case fatality rate is still dropping.

 

[fatprop]

Isn't it about protecting others on the off chance you have contracted it? that's always been my understanding.

We can't live in a butterfly effect based world where you are responsible for things that are 4 or 5 times removed from you

The argument that you are literally killing someones grandma doesn't not stand up to common sense

Make good personal decisions, trust others to do the same

 

[Ignoto]

Make good personal decisions, trust others to do the same

I think the recent outbreak in Melbourne has demonstrated that you can't trust others to do the same. From private companies hiring poorly trained staff, to people who know they are sick or waiting for tests results carrying on like it's no big deal, to Small-Medium businesses telling casuals who are 'sick' to come into work or they won't get any more shifts.

A person is smart, but people are dumb.

 

[Derpus]

We can't live in a butterfly effect based world where you are responsible for things that are 4 or 5 times removed from you

The argument that you are literally killing someones grandma doesn't not stand up to common sense

Make good personal decisions, trust others to do the same

That sounds like a lot of words to say i can't be bothered to wear a mask?

The idea that you might have the virus and you could pass it on to others seems like more than enough justification to do something that is effectively a very minor inconvenience to minimize that risk.

 

[Derpus]

How can ordinary punters or Presidents trust medical advisors when stuff like this egregious error is happening?
A Florida hospital handling COVID-19 tests confirmed to media this week that its near-100% positivity rate was overstated by a factor of 10, raising already-heightened concerns that numerous labs are over reporting the number of confirmed infections. (Just the News)

Same way you continue to trust any other profession where mistakes are made (you know, all the time everywhere in everything).

 

[fatprop]

I think the recent outbreak in Melbourne has demonstrated that you can't trust others to do the same. From private companies hiring poorly trained staff, to people who know they are sick or waiting for tests results carrying on like it's no big deal, to Small-Medium businesses telling casuals who are 'sick' to come into work or they won't get any more shifts.

A person is smart, but people are dumb.

The challenge is that the other option is to create rules for life that assume we are all idiots, I don't want to see a world where that is the in norm

I think it is better to coach those who make errors initially than make arbitrary rules for everyone

So I prefer Gladys's advice on masks to Andrew's approach

 

[fatprop]

That sounds like a lot of words to say i can't be bothered to wear a mask?

The idea that you might have the virus and you could pass it on to others seems like more than enough justification to do something that is effectively a very minor inconvenience to minimize that risk.

Nah, I have a mask and wear it where I feel at risk as per the advise of Gladys ie on places like busy public transport, not on a walk in the park

 

[fatprop]

Same way you continue to trust any other profession where mistakes are made (you know, all the time everywhere in everything).

So we should accept that professionals may make mistakes, but accept no trust to the public

 

[Derpus]

So we should accept that professionals may make mistakes, but accept no trust to the public

They are not equivalent - but even if they were, yes.

 

[Teh Other Dave]

Snip

If 1 per cent of people in Australia have been infected, or 250,000, the 126 deaths equates to a fatality rate of 0.05 per cent, which is similar to influenza.

Well no, because you're basing that on the data from influenza testing, which is just the tip of the iceberg.

 

[Braveheart81]

So I prefer Gladys's advice on masks to Andrew's approach

The two states are also in wildly different positions right now so it would be strange if the advice was the same.

The reality is we should all be wearing masks when at the shops or on public transport. It's a pretty low imposition with a high potential payoff. The majority still aren't wearing them. In my area the use of masks at the shops is substantially lower than it was early in the pandemic yet the risk is significantly higher now given that all the cases are community transmissions compared to early on when it was largely returned travellers. Whist the case numbers then were higher they were known and weren't infecting others.

 

[Up the Guts]

I think compulsory mask usage is as much as about trying to get the public to take the wider public health laws seriously as it is about stopping transmission. Gladys is probably keeping it in the back of the policy toolkit in case she needs to shock the public into complying.

 

[fatprop]

The reality is we should all be wearing masks when at the shops or on public transport.

If we can't socially distance, if it is two passengers on a bus, there is no point

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

What gets me is that we were told until recently that masks were of no use. I even had medical people tell me directly! Maybe we know more about the virus than previously and its transmission. I'll happily wear a mask if it gets to that over here. I'll certainly wear one and encourage others to do so if it frees up movement interstate.

 

[Derpus]

What gets me is that we were told until recently that masks were of no use. I even had medical people tell me directly! Maybe we know more about the virus than previously and its transmission. I'll happily wear a mask if it gets to that over here. I'll certainly wear one and encourage others to do so if it frees up movement interstate.

We've been told to wear masks from the beginning? There was some debate about its efficacy but its always been recommended.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

We've been told to wear masks from the beginning? There was some debate about its efficacy but its always been recommended.

That's not how it had previously come across to me.

 

[formerflanker]

We've been told to wear masks from the beginning? There was some debate about its efficacy but its always been recommended.

Mask wearing was initially discouraged but now it's vital.
The Australian Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy said “No one should go around wearing and wasting face masks.” in February.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the USA, in March said they did more harm than good.


The Mayo Clinic adds to that evidence with an explanation why public health authorities changed their minds (didn't know the extent to which people with COVID-19 could spread the virus before symptoms appeared.)

So no, mask wearing has not always been recommended but rather actively discouraged until recently.

 

[Derpus]

Hrmm, when did the switch happen? I can see why they would discourage it when there was a shortage of PPE for medical staff. Been a while since then though.

 

[Braveheart81]

So no, mask wearing has not always been recommended but rather actively discouraged until recently.

There was a big shortage of PPE globally when the pandemic started so regular people on the street buying up the PPE gear meant that healthcare workers (who were actively exposed to COVID-19 patients) didn't have enough for their own use.

That has now caught up and there is an adequate supply.

There has been plenty of illogical statements made both here and overseas on mask use. Some politicians and medical experts were discouraging mask use saying that it could make people less careful because they would feel they were getting protection from the mask. The reality has been the exact opposite at least in my experience. Wearing a mask at the shops means people take a wider berth and give you more space. It seems very much to work as a reminder to people that there is a pandemic and we're meant to be socially distancing.