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QLD Premier Rugby 2015

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T

Tigers Tale

Guest
I don't want to ruin Easter for the Brothers and GPS supporters but for the benefit of Filth and others here are some stats I did last year (they don't include the actual 2014 points table).


Numbers of wins:

Team: Average; 2013; 2012; 2011

1st: 14; 14; 14; 14
2nd: 12.7; 13; 12; 13
3rd: 12.7; 13; 12; 13
4th: 12.7; 13; 12; 13

This ignores bonus points because historically the teams finishing 2-5 effectively accumulate the same number of bonus points and hence cancel each other out but as you can see from above they may well dictate where teams finish 2-5.

So adjusting for the fact that Sunshine Coast Stingrays were in the comp 2011-13 that equates to 2 additional wins - if you deduct 2 from the average above you come up with the following number of wins you need to secure a top 4 spot:

1st 12
2nd 10.7
3rd 10.7
4th 10.7

What this means is that you can only afford 5 losses in a 16 game (9 teams) Prem comp to be assured of a top 4 spot - once you lose 6 you are effectively out of contention.

Take GPS for example: they have lost to Easts, Uni & Souths (3) and if you say that they will drop games to Sunnybank(2) & Uni(1) over the remainder of the season that equates to 6 losses which would see them miss out on the semis.

That makes contests between Easts, Bond, Souths, Brothers, etc in 2015 so important and if those sides can nag two wins off the big two Uni/Snbk it puts them in a position where they can potentially challenge for a major semi spot.

Filth don't worry it will all work itself out in the wash, but makes for a big clash between our clubs on Anzac Day - it will be worth the admission price!!!
 
Red Heavy

Red Heavy

Billy Sheehan (19)
Here is the 2014 ladder

Team P W L D Fft Opp Fft F A Df BP <7p BP 4t Pts
University of Queensland 16 14 1 1 0 0 577 285 292 0 12 70
Sunnybank 16 11 5 0 0 0 594 324 270 3 12 59
Brothers 16 12 4 0 0 0 521 314 207 1 8 57
GPS 16 10 5 1 0 0 524 400 124 2 13 57
Easts 16 8 6 2 0 0 458 374 84 2 8 46
Souths 16 7 9 0 0 0 404 461 -57 3 8 39
Bond University 16 5 11 0 0 0 341 559 -218 2 4 26
Wests 16 2 14 0 0 0 356 582 -226 5 5 18
Norths 16 1 15 0 0 0 272 748 -476 1 3 8

So it looks like 10 wins was the cut off but bonus points do matter (brothers could have finished second)
With a potentially closer, stronger comp this year there should be more wins down the southern end of the table and less up the north so maybe that will lower the required number of points needed to make the final 4.

Also worth noting that Sunnybank lost their first 3 games last season and came within a whisker of winning the GF.
 
T

Tigers Tale

Guest
Red Heavy I am not wanting to under sell the value of the bonus points but my 10.7 wins was more to illustrate that 6 losses and you'll miss out on finals action.

GPS finished 4th in 2014 with 10 W & 1 D = 10.5 wins; whereas Easts who finished 5th had 8W, 6L & 2D = 9.0 wins or more importantly 6 losses.

The bench mark for making the top 4 seems to be 10.5 - 10.7 wins.

I think from this analysis it is fair to say if you lose 6 you won't make the semis.

With due respect to the other clubs it does look like a race in 6 - Uni, Snbk, Bond, Easts, Bros, Souths - much like the last 3/4 seasons just that GPS seem to have dropped out and Bond has come in.
 
D

dizzle

Peter Burge (5)
Ok I have been reading your comments in relation to GPS.
Are any of you willing to put your money where your mouth is and say that the gallopers are gone???
Under the astute coaching staff that GPS have at there disposal it takes a brave man to write them off. They will lose maybe 1 or 2 for the remainder of the season and then all you peanuts will be saying how good GPS are and they are the team to be wary of.
This will be the top 4:
1. Uni
2. GPS
3. Sunnybank
4. Filth
I eagerly await someone's uneducated response
 
Red Heavy

Red Heavy

Billy Sheehan (19)
Love the aggression in your first post Dizzle.

I am going to stand by my pre season prediction at this stage which has the gallopers in the top 4. Reason for this is they have a good coaching staff, they play all their games at home in the back end of the season and as previously stated sunnybank set preicdence last year with their bad start leading to a pretty good year.

However calling people uneducated for questioning this after they have 3 losses on the trot (2 against teams your educated self has outside the top 4) is a bit harsh.
 
Jets

Jets

Paul McLean (56)
Staff member
I'll bite dizzle. I can't see GPS finishing in the top 4 this season. The issue they have is that the Reds have taken away a bit of their strike power and they won't be back until they return from Africa.

If they make the top 4 I will happily display the GPS logo in all my posts from week 1 of the finals until the end of the year. If they don't you have to display a team of my choice for the same period.
 
ikaletahi

ikaletahi

Herbert Moran (7)
dizzle said:
Ok I have been reading your comments in relation to GPS.
Are any of you willing to put your money where your mouth is and say that the gallopers are gone???
Under the astute coaching staff that GPS have at there disposal it takes a brave man to write them off. They will lose maybe 1 or 2 for the remainder of the season and then all you peanuts will be saying how good GPS are and they are the team to be wary of.
This will be the top 4:
1. Uni
2. GPS
3. Sunnybank
4. Filth
I eagerly await someone's uneducated response
Click to expand...


Todd, is that you?

For real though, GPS wont make the four this year. They were atrocious on the weekend and have been for the last few weeks too.

Ill sit here and put on my dunces hat while you reply :)
 
D

dizzle

Peter Burge (5)
To suggest they have been atrocious is in itself a joke. Beaten by easts by 2 after having a penalty on full time to win which any of you could have kicked, playing with 14 men for 30mins... Mm mm... Should have won....against uni.. Yeah outscrummed I admit but did have chances.... Souths agree woeful...
I will allow you to jump on the bandwagon when they start winning though....can't wait to see your gallopers logo jets.... Wear it and share it with pride!!!
 
FilthRugby

FilthRugby

Nicholas Shehadie (39)
I'm indecisive about GPS. I'll have to wait and see. They certainly have the talent there to be a finals team. Proof is in the pudding.
 
Swansong10

Swansong10

Frank Nicholson (4)
I won't chime into Gps chat too much but I will say this!

Whilst Gps only took two games against us at Chipsy wood last week Ihave to give them credit for thow they conducted themselves. From all reports they were outstanding with respect in the minute/moment of silence pre games and played each game with good spirit.

I only saw the last three games of the day but hear the lower grades were fantastic matches. The gps premier reserve grade side will give the comp a good run from what I saw!

All in all it made for a great day of rugby!
 
Cat_A

Cat_A

Arch Winning (36)
dizzle said:
Ok I have been reading your comments in relation to GPS.
Are any of you willing to put your money where your mouth is mouths are and say that the gGallopers are gone???
Under the astute coaching staff that GPS have at there their disposal it takes a brave man to write them off. They will lose maybe 1 or 2 for the remainder of the season, and then all you peanuts will be saying how good GPS are and that they are the team to be wary of.
This will be the top 4:
1. Uni
2. GPS
3. Sunnybank
4. Filth
I eagerly await someone's uneducated response
Click to expand...

Normally I'm not a pedantic arsehole on the forums but from your last sentence you seem like someone who appreciates the value of a good education and I didn't want to let you down. It's a ballsy move in your first post to call fellow posters peanuts and anticipate uneducated responses, especially when until you asked people to say that GPS were gone, no one was actually saying GPS were gone; I guess there just weren't any "brave men".

I agree with your statement about the astute coaching staff that GPS have at their disposal; over the past few years a lot of clubs have benefited from GPS's disposal of their astute coaching staff. My "uneducated response" to your post though, is that I think GPS Premier Grade will struggle without the depth and stability that they've enjoyed from their dominant Reserve Grade side over the past few years. While it doesn't make it impossible, having a solid and competitive reserve grade team can help with depth of available players, especially in away games where most of the reserve grade team stay around in case they're needed.

Add that to not getting your Reds players back for a few more weeks, and the string of away games early in the season, and I think it will be very tough for them.
 
T

Tigers Tale

Guest
Dizzle - all I'll say is that it will be a wonderful achievement for GPS to make the top 4 in 2015.

I appreciate that Sunnybank went on to win 13 in a row last year after dropping 3 early games but honestly the horse will have bolted for GPS by the time you get troops back to sure up your season in the run home to the finals.

GPS will need to win 10 of their last 13 games and on current form they just won't do that.

I won't write them off just yet but if they drop 2 of their next four games v Wests(A), Bros(H), Snbk(A) & Bond(H) - then I'll be prepared to call it at that point in time.

GPS find themselves in a very similar position to what Easts were at a similar stage of the season in 2014 - by the time they righted the ship it simply became a bridge too far.

Dizzle as good a coach as Dammers is reported to be, pure mathematics will ensure that he won't be able to navigate his way out of this one.
 
D

dizzle

Peter Burge (5)
i did not expect to get so many responses to one 'aggressive' post. However, I have seen first hand the style of football GPS are intending to play, and I agree they really need to hurry up and get things right. But, when the penny does drop, there will not be a team in this competition who will come close to them. Sure they are weakened by a lesser standard of reserve grade side than previous years, but if the finish round one with a 4-4 or 5-3 record they will win the competition. Gentlemen, head to the nearest ATM, withdraw $100 and go have your cucumber on Gps at $22!!!!
And to save myself the trouble at the end of the year responding to you all......
You're welcome!!!!
 
T

Tigers Tale

Guest
Dizzle history would say you are delusional - one premiership in 19 years.

3 in your history - 1961, 1972 & 1996.

Dizzle for someone who leads us to believe he is educated - your mathematics is certainly not a strong suit.
 
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