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Reds 2019

Strewthcobber

Andrew Slack (58)
Get this thread back on rugby. interestingly to make the finals, one bookie has Rebels at $1.12 favourites, Brumbies at $1.45, Reds @ @.30 and Tahs $2.63. I would have thought it was much closer. Definitely not the Rebels that short.
Yeah maybe - 37 points probably gets you to the finals

Rebels - 3 wins from 7 - win at home to Reds, Tahs, Bulls and/or away to Sunwolves (Should be OK)
Brumbies - 4 wins from 6 - win home and away v Sunwolves and then 2 of three home games v Bulls, Tahs, Reds (Not bad)
Tahs - 4 or 5 wins from 7 - win home v Jags & Brumbies and then away v reds and Rebels (Tough!)
Reds - 5 wins from 7 - win home v Sunwolves, Tahs, Jags and Blues and away win against Chiefs or Rebs (Doable but unlikely)
 

fatprop

George Gregan (70)
Staff member
I think the Reds are in with a big shout. on there day they beat anyone.


Yeah but every other day the Rebels have the best squad, team and bench, all the other sides are in a gimp fight for the second semi spot so they can go lose away somewhere
 

Derpus

George Gregan (70)
Yeah but every other day the Rebels have the best squad, team and bench, all the other sides are in a gimp fight for the second semi spot so they can go lose away somewhere
Isn't the most likely outcome that none of them make it?
 

Strewthcobber

Andrew Slack (58)
Isn't the most likely outcome that none of them make it?
Bookies normally know what they are talking about.

Looks like Rebels and Brumbies are forecast to make the finals based on those odds

In order of bookies odds
Crusaders and Hurricanes - there already

More than 50% chance of making it
Highlanders
Rebels
Brumbies
Jags
Sharks
Stormers

Less than 50% chance of making it
Bulls
Lions
Reds
Blues
Watarahs
Chiefs
Sunwolves
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
Yeah maybe - 37 points probably gets you to the finals


36 points made the finals last year (Sharks) and also missed the finals (Rebels).

Last year the Sunwolves were last on 14 points (already on 11 this season) and the Blues were second last on 18.

The evenness of the competition so far could mean that the points needed is slightly lower than last year. If everyone other than the Sunwolves got to 30 points and the Crusaders were still right up there on over 60 points potentially that 36 drops to 35 or 34.

The pricing of those odds reflects the fact that the Rebels will be hard to beat as conference winners and if they are there's a strong chance if will be because another side has done really well and both of them make the finals.
 

waiopehu oldboy

George Smith (75)
Bookies normally know what they are talking about.

Looks like Rebels and Brumbies are forecast to make the finals based on those odds

In order of bookies odds
Crusaders - there already

More than 50% chance of making it
Highlanders
Rebels
Brumbies
Jags
Sharks
Stormers
Bulls
Lions

Less than 50% chance of making it
Reds
Blues
Watarahs
Chiefs
Sunwolves

So you're saying Horrorcanes are pretty much toast then? :)
 

Rebels3

Jim Lenehan (48)
Get this thread back on rugby. interestingly to make the finals, one bookie has Rebels at $1.12 favourites, Brumbies at $1.45, Reds @ @.30 and Tahs $2.63. I would have thought it was much closer. Definitely not the Rebels that short.
Remember those odds are to make the finals and not win the conference.

Apart from the Tahs I think the rest of the Aussie teams should go into more games remaining in the season as favorites than not.
 

SouthernX

Jim Lenehan (48)
Not the prettiest win. Would of loved to come away with 4 points where the game was 15 on 15 but reds are in the drivers seat I’d say to control their own destiny and make an unlikely push to make the finals.

Controlling our own destiny based on assumption that Tahs/Rebels lose this week and then the reds take care of business against rebels next Friday in Melbourne and the upcoming clash vs the warraroaches at Suncorp whenever that maybe.
 

Beer Baron

Phil Hardcastle (33)
Whilst noting that i wasn't glued to the screen last nigh,t I am concerned about how under utilised Sefa and CFS were/are. I would be interested to see how many carries he got. Jock got the ball a lot more - was that luck, my wrong observation or better hunting?

wright and ASY (Angus Scott-Young) again outstanding i thought - both very consistent.
9,10,15 continue to improve. I really liked the smart kicks by Stewart to touch when there was nothing on.

To beat Rebels, Tahs we need much better attack utilising CFS and Sefa out wide.
 

dru

Tim Horan (67)
There were some individual promising performances - I’m really liking Kerevi for 1.

As a team though we were unable to change tack to target the man advantage. Reds needed a bonus point given how it planned out. A pattern that is a well travelled, friendly groove becomes a rut if we can’t adapt to opportunity.

It is interesting how the points table is currently sitting, so you never know.
 
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Adam84

Nick Farr-Jones (63)
Well... On a positive note, its a good sign that the Reds played badly but still managed to win, albeit against a bad opposition. There will be a lot of things to take away from that match.

Set piece is struggling in consistency, it doesn’t have its dominance that it did last year and they need to recognise that when opting for a scrum off a penalty. Last night they could have gone for a penalty goal to sustain the pressure and keep the score line ticking overs rather then trying to use the scrum to force further penalties.

Halves, pretty happy with how McDermott and Hegarty are progressing, given one’s a rookie and ones a journeyman they are doing a pretty good job controlling the game and seem to be getting better each week.

Finally, Jock Campbell did a really good job on debut i thought, found a bit of space and was solid in defence, importantly i thought his decision making was pretty good. When he found space a few times he opted to step back in and take the hit rather then trying to tip-toe the touch line, not the fastest or biggest guy, but technically quite proficient for a winger.
 

Ignoto

Greg Davis (50)
The Reds backline was woeful last night, I couldn't see any type of gameplan/lines they were trying to run. I'm not too sure if thats because the Sunwolves weren't giving them the space to do it through the rush defence + toeing the onside line and as a result, Hegarty just had to shovel it to Kerevi and CFS.

Anyway, I thought Thor and Tate were superb last night. Thor seemed to be constantly busy even towards the back end of the game while Tate is demonstrating his ability to see what's in front of him and react. While I hope he's involved with the Wallaby squad this year, I'm conflicted as I think he could do with a solid off season to add a bit more bulk to his body to handle the pressure that will come at the highest level.
 
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PhilClinton

Geoff Shaw (53)
I think Hergarty has been a great find this season. He’s only 27 and finding himself playing top level footy each week for once. He will get better, it’s a shame his outside backs will most likely be drastically different next year.
 

Strewthcobber

Andrew Slack (58)
I think Hergarty has been a great find this season. He’s only 27 and finding himself playing top level footy each week for once. He will get better, it’s a shame his outside backs will most likely be drastically different next year.
Is he staying for next year?
 

TSR

Mark Ella (57)
Just watched the reply of the U20 game vs. NZ. Seems that youngsters Wood, McReight & Wilson have a lot of potential and seem to fit in nicely with what characteristics Thorn is trying to develop. Will be very interested how they develop/come through over the next 2 yrs. Super Rugby is a different beast and the list of promising youngsters who couldn’t push on is lengthy, but the raw ingredients all appear there.

On top Wright, ASY (Angus Scott-Young), Rodda, Salalakai-Loto, Mafi & Tupou there appears a very solid side emerging.
 
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