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Rugby World Cup 2019


Will Genia (78)
Staff member


Greg Davis (50)
Neat little tool to predict quarter and semi finals. https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/bracket

I'm assuming the seeds will progress without major upsets, bar Argentina beating the French. Toss a coin between Australia and Wales, but NZ and Ireland should be locks.

Pool A
Ireland (predicting 1st)
Scotland (predicting 2nd)

Pool B
Black Orcs (predicting 1st)
South Africa (predicting 2nd)

Pool C
White Orcs (predicting 1st)
Argentina (predicting 2nd)

Pool D
Australia (predicting 1st)
Wales (predicting 2nd)

White Orcs v Wales

Black Orcs v Scotland

Australia v Argentina

Ireland v South Africa

Semi 1
Wales v Black Orcs

Semi 2
Australia v South Africa

Australia v Black Orcs.


John Thornett (49)
On the topic of predictions:

An economist who specialises in analytics predicts the All Blacks will win the 2019 Rugby World Cup and beat South Africa in their opening game and the final in Yokohama on November 2.

The analysis predicts the pool winners in Japan will be England, New Zealand, Wales and Ireland, who would play quarter-finals against Australia, Scotland, France and South Africa respectively.

The All Blacks are forecast to beat Scotland and face England, the 2003 champions, in the semi-finals. Wales, World Rugby's official No 1 after this month ending New Zealand's reign of almost decade on top spot, are tipped to beat France in the last eight and reach their third semi-final. South Africa would have finished second in Pool B behind the All Blacks having lost that opening game to the reigning world champions, but the Springboks, champions in 1995 and 2007, are predicted to reach the last four after beating the Irish, extending Ireland's miserable run of results in knockout games at the World Cup.

With England facing the All Blacks and Wales playing South Africa, Winchester's analytics predicts the two southern hemisphere nations will prevail to contest a rematch of the famous 1995 World Cup final won by the Springboks at Ellis Park in Johannesburg. The champions would, however, be the All Blacks on this occasion and mean a fourth World Cup crown for New Zealand.

Furthermore, the results forecast the probability of every team's chances of reaching various milestones if the tournament was played 10,000 times. The All Blacks would be winners 53.6 per cent of the time, England 15.5 per cent, South Africa 12.9 per cent, Wales 7.1 per cent, Ireland 5.4 per cent and Australia 3.8 per cent. The remaining 14 nations are all below 0.8 per cent.


Science, bitches.

waiopehu oldboy

George Smith (75)
FWIW I'll be placing my "to make the Final" bets thus:

$50 NZ v SA paying $4.33
$30 NZ v Wales @ $9.50
$20 NZ v Ireland @ $6.00

As previously posted I don't think it's possible for Ringinland to make the Final with their draw (Arg, Fra, QF, SF & Final in successive weeks) so even at $11.00 I'm not tempted.

waiopehu oldboy

George Smith (75)
I'll fight Winchester and his stupid predictive analytics model.

My "it's the vibe" model involving a spittle-daubed finger upthrust into the prevailing breeze will win

Just out of interest, when did Straya last beat SA one week & NZ the next?


John Eales (66)
Just out of interest, when did Straya last beat SA one week & NZ the next?

2008. 2004 and 2000 before that. In 2011 they did it a fortnight apart.

EDIT. SAF last beat AUS then NZ in successive weeks in 2014, both at home. I only looked back as far as 2008, they didn’t do it any other time in that period.

waiopehu oldboy

George Smith (75)
^ interesting but meaningless factoid gleaned from the above: the winners in '99, '03, '07 & '11 were all knocked out in the QF of the previous tournament, based on which Oirland supporters the world over will be convinced that "THIS is our Year, all the other times were just fine-tuning the fifth-equal-to-Champions formula" :).


John Eales (66)

waiopehu oldboy

George Smith (75)
Wales squad:

Forwards: Jake Ball, Adam Beard, Rhys Carre, James Davies, Elliot Dee, Ryan Elias, Tomas Francis, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Jones (capt), Wyn Jones, Dillon Lewis, Ross Moriarty, Josh Navidi, Ken Owens, Aaron Shingler, Nicky Smith, Justin Tipuric, Aaron Wainwright.

Backs: Josh Adams, Hallam Amos, Dan Biggar, Aled Davies, Gareth Davies, Jonathan Davies, Leigh Halfpenny, George North, Hadleigh Parkes, Rhys Patchell, Owen Watkin, Liam Williams, Tomos Williams.


waiopehu oldboy

George Smith (75)
Can't find it to link to it but Foster was quoted over the weekend saying that one of TJP, Crotty or JBar will play 5/8 in a RWC Pool match. Also that this would be news to them as they hadn't actually "had that conversation yet" or similar. I'd have thought the last 20 v Tonga this weekend would be an appropriate time to trial it.