RWC 2027 Australia

[Wilson]

Despite adding 4 teams on 2023 it feels like a stronger group overall (or at least as strong), with the progress that some of the sides have made. Only Hong Kong and Zimbabwe look to be really out of their depth, and I don't think Zimbabwe are any weaker than Namibia has been in the past. Maybe helped by Spain not screwing up their eligibility this time (even with Paraguay making their own mistakes).

Hong Kong probably have a bit of potential thanks to expats if they can build off of qualification, though it does look a bit like a combined Asia/Pacific grouping would make more sense for qualification than having them separate.

 

[Omar Comin']

Don't sleep on Georgia or Spain

Yeah for sure - Spain were leading Fiji after 72 minutes this weekend without their 6 Top 14 players.

Definitely a team high on the list of potential future tier 1 nations. Their under 18's also beat Georgia over the weekend for the first time in a long time.

 

[Mr Pilfer]

Regardless of who we draw from band 1 there is no way the wallabies should not finish top 2 in their group. It is easier now the way it is structured. But yes I know the issue is finishing 2nd and then what happens after that. Best case scenario would probably be getting Argentina but if we get our shit together could beat Ireland, France or England at a packed home ground

 

[Marc Wite]

Despite adding 4 teams on 2023 it feels like a stronger group overall (or at least as strong), with the progress that some of the sides have made. Only Hong Kong and Zimbabwe look to be really out of their depth, and I don't think Zimbabwe are any weaker than Namibia has been in the past. Maybe helped by Spain not screwing up their eligibility this time (even with Paraguay making their own mistakes).

Hong Kong probably have a bit of potential thanks to expats if they can build off of qualification, though it does look a bit like a combined Asia/Pacific grouping would make more sense for qualification than having them separate.

Hong Kong are an aging side - their average age is well above 30 (back row in particular). Age is not necessarily a barrier, but injuries and fitness for those older guys will be, come 2027.

Hopefully they can unearth some younger qualified guns (maybe already playing in UK or Australia), and integrate them into their new pro contract system.

Otherwise, I expect we'll see some cricket scores against Hong Kong.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

And could be the last time we see them unless they want to go on a Japan like recruitment mission. Less and less people are spending years in HK these days leading which qualify a heap of these blokes that were born there when Mum & Dad got sent there for work.

 

[Wilson]

And could be the last time we see them unless they want to go on a Japan like recruitment mission. Less and less people are spending years in HK these days leading which qualify a heap of these blokes that were born there when Mum & Dad got sent there for work.

Based on the current qualification model they'd need to be passed by another Asian side - UAE, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Malaysia were the other contenders there and the closest anyone else got to beating them was the UAE in a 43-10 loss in Dubai. Unless that qualification changes before 2031 Hong Kong probably get at least another cycle before anything changes, particularly given World Cup participation (and the Nations Cup) will give them a leg up from here.

 

[Marc Wite]

Based on the current qualification model they'd need to be passed by another Asian side - UAE, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Malaysia were the other contenders there and the closest anyone else got to beating them was the UAE in a 43-10 loss in Dubai. Unless that qualification changes before 2031 Hong Kong probably get at least another cycle before anything changes, particularly given World Cup participation (and the Nations Cup) will give them a leg up from here.

Do Japan join that (Hong Kong, UAE etc.) Asian Qualifying Competition for 2031, if they fail to finish high enough in 2027?

Or would Japan continue through the Pacific Cup?

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Based on the current qualification model they'd need to be passed by another Asian side - UAE, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Malaysia were the other contenders there and the closest anyone else got to beating them was the UAE in a 43-10 loss in Dubai. Unless that qualification changes before 2031 Hong Kong probably get at least another cycle before anything changes, particularly given World Cup participation (and the Nations Cup) will give them a leg up from here.

That will absolutely help them but as the current group age out it's going to rely on more and more locals and that gap can shrink quickly when they lose 4-5 premier grade standard players.

 

[Wilson]

Do Japan join that (Hong Kong, UAE etc.) Asian Qualifying Competition for 2031, if they fail to finish high enough in 2027?

Or would Japan continue through the Pacific Cup?

Given it's based on the regional competitions they play in I think they'd have to continue as part of the pacific. Having them there definitely makes sense logistically, but it does make that one Asian qualifier spot seem a bit ridiculous now.

You could theoretically run it as a play off with that highest ranked pacific side not to qualifier (would have been Samoa this time) but I'm not sure they'll want to completely remove the loan Asian qualifier slot. Maybe if it was the top 2 Asian sides playing off against the top 2 (unqualified pacific sides) for 2 slots (so the current Pacific 3 and Asia 1 slots) it would work well enough in terms of opportunity, even if the result would likely be the same.

 

[Wilson]

That will absolutely help them but as the current group age out it's going to rely on more and more locals and that gap can shrink quickly when they lose 4-5 premier grade standard players.

I think they've still got a couple of generations of "Hong Kong born" (or parent/grand parents Hong Kong born) players they can call in playing pro around the world. World cup qualification will definitely help lure some in, though they'll need to back it with money and intent. Being in the world cup helps those too though. Half the effort is probably just going to be identifying them, but once (or if) they get serious about the player agents will probably do that work for them.