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Super Rugby AU Grand Final - Reds v Brumbies - Saturday 8th May 2021

ForceFan

Desmond Connor (43)
Apologies to Brumbies fans for the WF giving your team such a hard road to the final.
Seems like we still haven't the game plan to defeat the Brumbies.
Hopefully next year.
I'm looking forward to the SRAu Final to be a good showcase of Australian rugby.
 
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Zero_Cool

Arch Winning (36)
Having been unable to watch the Brumbs vs Force, I've got to assume Rob-V didn't disappear and had a big game. But that doesn't override him going missing for periods against the Reds in both those games. Hopefully for Australian Rugby he can keep his work rate high and be consistent for his whole time on the pitch. I suspect at least to start Wilson will get the start and Vali will probably come off the bench (like Uru has done for the Reds) brining that high impact.
I was reading a roar article that included the time between tackles & carries Wilson was at 7.2 & 7.1, McReight was an insane 6.6 min between tackles and a more mortal 9.8 between runs. Rob was 7.8 and 10.3.

This does indicate that concern about Rob-V's work rate in comparison to Wilson & McReight (the yard sticks this year). Obviously I don't think anyone expects him to match McReight's inhuman 6.6 min between tackles, but I think he does need to begin to approach Wilson's numbers.
 

TSR

Mark Loane (55)
Zero Cool - I read the same article and one of the things it concluded was that even though Wilson had a higher work rate, Valetini’s overall rating was better on both attack and defence.

I think you need to be careful selectively quoting parts of articles.

There have been a number of bits of analysis done on the backrows and the one’s I’ve read all indicate Valetini’s work rate has been fine - and I’m happy to admit I’ve been a critic in the past. He is operating wider so it is normal he will have a few less involvements than Wilson.

It did also highlight that McReight is exceptional in every aspect.
 

eastman

Phil Hardcastle (33)
Valentini had a big second half- he was running the ball with confidence and making metres at will - probably the best ball-running performance I've seen from him.
 

TSR

Mark Loane (55)
I will say it’ll be a shame if we reduce this thread to a dissection of one player. This has potential to be a cracker of a game with the Brumbies holding the deserved mantle of the bench mark side of Australian rugby and the Reds the team on the rise who want to take that from them.

A lot of people annointed the Reds favourites at the start of the year and I can’t imagine that sat very well with McKellar, his support staff and his players. I’m sure there is more than a little motivation to make people eat humble pie.

On the flip side I listen to some commentators/fans and they still seem to be almost personal in their dismissive view of the Reds and the derision of the players achievements to date. Tupou is too lazy, LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) is too soft, ASY (Angus Scott-Young) is a lightweight, Wilson is having second year blues (look - I’m not saying he’s the finished article by any stretch, but if this is him having second year blues, I can’t wait until he gets through it), McReight only looks good because the opposition is poor, McDermott is shaky under pressure, JOC (James O'Connor) plays too deep. Or too flat. Or can’t kick. Or kicks too much. Daugunu is suspect & Petaia is an overhyped, underachieving rookie. I missed a few - but all except Paisami (who seems universally loved) have their critics. And the thing is if the Reds don’t win a lot of these comments will continue - particularly if one of the players has a shocker or makes a critical error.

I’m looking forward to a cracking game. I have a lot of faith in the Reds but I also have a hell of a lot of respect for the Brumbies.

Hopefully we get a 50k crowd because the game deserves it. Unfortunately I won’t be one of them - but I’ve sent my Uni student daughter (with a bunch of her mates) as my proxy.
 

upthereds#!

Peter Fenwicke (45)
I will say it’ll be a shame if we reduce this thread to a dissection of one player. This has potential to be a cracker of a game with the Brumbies holding the deserved mantle of the bench mark side of Australian rugby and the Reds the team on the rise who want to take that from them.

A lot of people annointed the Reds favourites at the start of the year and I can’t imagine that sat very well with McKellar, his support staff and his players. I’m sure there is more than a little motivation to make people eat humble pie.

On the flip side I listen to some commentators/fans and they still seem to be almost personal in their dismissive view of the Reds and the derision of the players achievements to date. Tupou is too lazy, LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) is too soft, ASY (Angus Scott-Young) is a lightweight, Wilson is having second year blues (look - I’m not saying he’s the finished article by any stretch, but if this is him having second year blues, I can’t wait until he gets through it), McReight only looks good because the opposition is poor, McDermott is shaky under pressure, JOC (James O'Connor) plays too deep. Or too flat. Or can’t kick. Or kicks too much. Daugunu is suspect & Petaia is an overhyped, underachieving rookie. I missed a few - but all except Paisami (who seems universally loved) have their critics. And the thing is if the Reds don’t win a lot of these comments will continue - particularly if one of the players has a shocker or makes a critical error.

I’m looking forward to a cracking game. I have a lot of faith in the Reds but I also have a hell of a lot of respect for the Brumbies.

Hopefully we get a 50k crowd because the game deserves it. Unfortunately I won’t be one of them - but I’ve sent my Uni student daughter (with a bunch of her mates) as my proxy.



Well I guess we should be happy we have that many people at least worth talking about. Seems other teams have more players who are worthy of 0 mention and noone will ever know their name and the reason they have a contract is because so many of our players have had to leave $$.
 
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Zero_Cool

Arch Winning (36)
I wasn't saying Valetini is better or worse overall, I was just giving some substance behind the workrate concerns. Ultimately any discussion as to the overall contribution will come down to value judgments. I was giving Wilson and McReight as two yard sticks on work rate to compare to (and also likely being his back row competition for the weekend). Tizzano in defense was insane making a tackle every 4 min, while Samu the other way was quite lacking in attacking touches having nearly 15 min between touches. I think Valentini still goes missing for too long too often, but I would love to see him lift his work rate to match that of Wilson and retain his impact, obviously Wilson has slowed down since his blistering pace last year, but interestingly he has been turning it up coming to the back end of the season.
Lineout wins I think are often deceptive because that only really shows how often the team throws to you, as an example McReight is very capable as a lineout jumper but ASY (Angus Scott-Young) has bee largely taking that role as back row jumper for the Reds, Wilson is probably more capable but even more useful running the ball so gets used there.

I agree Valetini has this year made a lot more impact with his involvement this year, I just worry that at Test Level he goes missing again, his level of impact is broadly where it has been where he has been capable of for a number of years now (IIRC 2018 NRC he really burst onto the scene). I would really like to see him get his work rate to more around that level Wilson has had this year, and for him to be one of those players you say stood up for his team when they are under pressure, that I haven't seen him do yet (again I didn't get to see the Brumbies vs Force) but maybe he did it then. And I would LOVE to see him take that step in the Grand Final! If he leads the Brumbies to a win then I'll be calling for him to get a Wallabies start. But as I said I think at this stage it's safer for the Wallabies to start Wilson and have Rob in that Uru type impact player role and he's extremely well suited to that too.
 

Zero_Cool

Arch Winning (36)
I'll be really really interested to see the team the Reds announce they have soo many key selections they can make. Do they pick ASY (Angus Scott-Young) or the Captain Wright, do they try to play both after it not working against the Force? Why is Blyth on the out after having looked the goods for so long? Who's going to play next to Tupou and BPA (where is Harry Hoopert?!)?
Who comes in for Hunter, do they move Jordie to 13 or keep him at 14? Do they bring in the kid Flook? Do they start Hegarty or Campbell? Do they bring back Moses or continue with Thomas? Do they start Vunivalu, or have him on the bench? What about Droasese?

I feel like the best Reds team might be:

1) Zander
2) BPA
3) Tupou
4) Smith (why is Blyth out of favor?)
5) LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto)
6) Wright
7) McReight
8) Wilson
9) McDermott
10) O'Connor
11) Daugunu
12) Stewart
13) Petaia
14) Vinuvalu
15) Campbell

16) Mafi
17) Fotuaika
18) Nonggorr (won't play)
19) ASY (Angus Scott-Young)
20) Uru
21) Sorovi
22) Hegarty
23) Droasese
 

PhilClinton

Jim Lenehan (48)
Zero - Hoopert has been getting his ass handed to him in clubland. He never really came back the same player as the start of 2020. So much competition for prop spots at the Reds I don’t see him cracking the team again this year (by that I mean SRTT and the grand final).

I think Vunivalu on the bench for Droasese. He’s a bit of a trump card for this game. There is little doubt the bloke has ability in spades. If the Reds find themselves chasing points midway through the game he’s the type of player that could get them back into it in a hurry, but there is high risk with that as he’ll be underdone and still isn’t what I’d call rugby smart.
 

Zero_Cool

Arch Winning (36)
Yeah, I do worry about Vuni, but at the same time I feel like he's too good to leave out. Playing him from the bench is the safer option. Having said that Vuni is a champion, he was a key player for the Storm and during his time they won the comp twice and were runners up once (and minor premiers three times during his time too).

I just remember his abuse of that Force defense, surely you can't keep a guy THAT good out of your XV. Having said that Droasese is going to be very good too, and I see the merits to bringing Vuni off the bench.
 

Zero_Cool

Arch Winning (36)
Yeah, I do worry about Vuni, but at the same time I feel like he's too good to leave out. Playing him from the bench is the safer option. Having said that Vuni is a champion, he was a key player for the Storm and during his time they won the comp twice and were runners up once (and minor premiers three times during his time too).

I just remember his abuse of that Force defense, surely you can't keep a guy THAT good out of your XV. Having said that Droasese is going to be very good too, and I see the merits to bringing Vuni off the bench.
 

spikhaza

John Solomon (38)
I'm in the start Vunivalu camp. He's powerful, he's played rugby at a schoolboy level and will cause the Brumbies a lot of problems. So what if he's not the best defender in the comp yet, he's not some raging liability, he was a bona fide star at the Storm and I'm sure he'll kill it on Saturday (and we will get abused by League fans saying how easy it is to run through defenders in rugby etc etc)
 

rugbyontherange

Frank Nicholson (4)
Def’s big decisions to be made by Reds coaching staff this week, on the back of the loss to the Force.
* Paisami out - Do you slot in Flook, it worked the last time and I have been impressed with Flook, but these are big matches. Easy for Brumbies to identify the young ones as targets.
- Does Vunivalu or Campbell come in to wing and Jordy move across?
I’ve seen previously when Vunivalu is on, there is a tendancy for the attack (JOC (James O'Connor)) to just rush and send it across to him, without working towards setting up the attack. They really started playing their best attack, (as opposed to high risk percentage attack), when Vunivalu is off. Happy for him to come of the bench for impact.
*Is Campbell recovered from injury? - Campbell or Hegarty in 15.
I kind of think you need keep good/tactical kicking strength onboard to keep the ball down the end away from the Brumbies attackingh/lineout/maul danger zone.
My feeling is Hegarty is better at the back end of the game when a calm strength is required, not so much at the front end of the game when high impact and intesity is the go.
* ASY (Angus Scott-Young) to lock was not a successful move. (Hats off to ASY (Angus Scott-Young) who had a cracker individually with 18 tackles, but the scrum was under pressure, the lineout was under pressure, the forwards general go forward was under pressure, which put Tate under pressure). To me, Wright or ASY (Angus Scott-Young) on the bench.
This is a big dance game where you need your experienced players on. Particularly if they decide to start with Flook. I’m with you ICE COOL, and many others, for the life of me can’t see why Blyth isn’t in the mix. He hasn’t appeared on Thorn’s naughty list (unlike Stewart), and he has the “toiling away experience” from all those games nearly won as the young group of players found their resiliance.
On checking stats, he is up there with all of the locks across the board for tackles made, runs, one of the best locks for stats for minimal missed tackles and least penalties given away. He has been strong in the lineouts and certainly, whilst Smith has done his job, he has not been outstanding and Smiths stats are average for tackles made. I actually can’t recall Smith getting a lineout thrown to him in his games so far, I could be wrong, but it doesn’t seem that they have confidence in him yet. Looking at the Reds site, Blyth has 23 Caps which were against international teams such as Sth Africa, NZ and Argies, Smith has had 3 starts and 4 x 10 min stints from the bench against the Aus teams only.
I know everyone has their opinions, a lot of us are sharing them re the Reds Locks, but if we go to ESPN Game stats, Blyth has the highest tackle rate after ASY (Angus Scott-Young)’s last weekend, is the only Lock in the Reds matches to be in the top 10 twice, and has the least amount of game minutes when you compare those games: ( ie Blyth plays 65 mins whilst LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) plays 80.) LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto)’s tackle stats are pretty poor but his runs/run meters are the compensation. Blyth doesn’t do the runs but makes up for it in defence. Smiths runs/run meters are comparable to Blyths but his defence isn’t as strong.
Looking at games : Reds v Waratahs R 1 & 5 , Reds v Rebels R 2 & 6 , Reds v Brumbies R 3 & 7, Reds v Force R 4 & 8
Tackles per game; Rankings of Top 10
ASY (Angus Scott-Young) - 17 R 8 Against Force (18 - no missed tackles, no turnovers conceded, 1 penalty given away)
Blyth - 12 R 4 Against Force (12 - no missed tackles, no turnovers conceded or penalties given away)
Neville - 9 R 7 ( 15 minus 4 missed tackles, minus a penalty given away, minus a turnover conceded)
LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) - 9 R 8 Against Force ( 11 - minus 2 missed tackles, no turnovers conceded, no penalties given away)
Swain - 9 R 3 (10 minus no missed tackles, no turnovers conceded, 1 penalty given away)
Caird - 7 R 1 (9 minus 2 missed tackles, no turnovers conceded, no penalties given away)
Blyth - 7 R 1 (8 minus no missed tackles 1 turnover conceded, no penalties given away)
Hosea 5 R 6 (8 minus 3 missed tackles, no turnovers conceded, no penalties given away)
Uru 1 R 1 ( 8 minus 3 missed tackles, 2 turnovers conceded, 2 penalties given away)
Cummings 6 R6 ( 7 minus no missed tackles, turnovers conceded, 1 penalty given away)
Next big question mark ??? Will Thomas being on the bench for such a big match. It was proven he was not up to big match pressure (yet) in last weeks game and defensivley he is quite poor.
The crux will be the forwards maintain their dominance so Tate can stay on for most of the game.
If my coaching hat was on, I would be wanting my most experienced team on until we are up by 50 ;)
Go Reds, so excited for the game.
 

Cancelled Account

Desmond Connor (43)
I'll be really really interested to see the team the Reds announce they have soo many key selections they can make. Do they pick ASY (Angus Scott-Young) or the Captain Wright, do they try to play both after it not working against the Force? Why is Blyth on the out after having looked the goods for so long? Who's going to play next to Tupou and BPA (where is Harry Hoopert?!)?
Who comes in for Hunter, do they move Jordie to 13 or keep him at 14? Do they bring in the kid Flook? Do they start Hegarty or Campbell? Do they bring back Moses or continue with Thomas? Do they start Vunivalu, or have him on the bench? What about Droasese?

I feel like the best Reds team might be:

1) Zander
2) BPA
3) Tupou
4) Smith (why is Blyth out of favor?)
5) LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto)
6) Wright
7) McReight
8) Wilson
9) McDermott
10) O'Connor
11) Daugunu
12) Stewart
13) Petaia
14) Vinuvalu
15) Campbell

16) Mafi
17) Fotuaika
18) Nonggorr (won't play)
19) ASY (Angus Scott-Young)
20) Uru
21) Sorovi
22) Hegarty
23) Droasese
No sure about Zander starting, but neither here or there with Fotuaika.
Switch Wright and ASY (Angus Scott-Young).
Switch Campbell and Hegarty.
Really liking Uru and would not mind seeing him get a start, but has been great impact from the bench
DEFINITELY Sorovi over Thomas.
 

James GC

Larry Dwyer (12)
No sure about Zander starting, but neither here or there with Fotuaika.
Switch Wright and ASY (Angus Scott-Young).
Switch Campbell and Hegarty.
Really liking Uru and would not mind seeing him get a start, but has been great impact from the bench
DEFINITELY Sorovi over Thomas.
I'd tend to agree with all of those changes bar Campbell for Hegarty. Also DEFINITELY Sorovi over Thomas.
 
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