Wallabies vs Lions , 19th July Suncorp

[The Red Baron]

Reading the tea leaves, I think this will be the team.

Also, in honour of Christy, here's my exclusive prediction of our team for the first test.

1. Bell
2. Faessler
3. Ala'alatoa
4. Williams
5. Skelton
6. Gleeson
7. McReight
8. Wilson
9. Gordon
10. Lynagh
11. Potter
12. Ikitau
13. Sua'ali'i
14. Jorgensen
15. Wright

16. Porecki 17. Slipper 18. Nonggorr 19. Frost 20. Hooper 21. McDermott 22. Donaldson 23. Kellaway

If this is indeed the team that Joe selects, I'm assuming that Williams and Wilson will be primary jumpers in the lineout, with Gleeson as a third option? I'd imagine that Frost would sub in for Skelton, so that would strengthen the lineout down the stretch. We'd likely finish the game with a stronger lineout that we'd start with, which isn't a bad thing.

 

[Tomthumb]

Harry Wilson as your 2nd lineout option isn’t ideal

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

I think it's fine. 196cm is more than enough.

The line out isn't U9s where the tallest kid wins. If it operates at speed with a good throw it'll work.

They can also get Skelton up for a few throughout the game. These are all big boys who can execute an explosive play. La Rochelle have used him more than enough to show he's an option and if he gets up in front of you there is almost no chance of competing with his frame.

 

[Slim 293]

Is there any hints that Skelton is starting?

I thought it was rumoured that he was likely coming off the bench against Fiji until injury...

Frost was probably one of our best against Fiji and I would've thought they'd stick with him and Williams to start, which provides a stronger lineout from the beginning and have Skelton and probably Tom Hooper come on around the 50-60 min mark.

 

[Braveheart81]

I will say... Kellaway has been particularly good in Gold over the years so if he plays well I'm very very happy to eat my own hat here.

He has and I've always been a fan but his form this year has been substantially worse than in previous years.

I put him in the team I listed because it sounds like he might be selected but given one of my primary concerns for that position is coverage of 12 and 13, I don't think he's the ideal option.

 

[Merrow]

Let’s hope they sell the 1000s of tickets still available on ticketek. Whole bays remain unsold

Rubbish. 800 tickets left as of last night

 

[Braveheart81]

Is there any hints that Skelton is starting?

Nothing specific that I've seen.

I just see his game as being far better suited to setting the tone physically from the start than trying to provide impact in the last half an hour.

 

[stillmissit]

Anybody - What's the Score on Saturday night?

My guess is 31-15 Lions win.

 

[SamoanNo8]

these things aren't mutually exclusive discussions... if two outside backs are of similar quality then you're going to consider what their point of difference is. that doesn't mean it's at the exclusion of their core skillset.

Oh of course - I agree with your point. That is assuming, however, that the outside backs are 'of a similar quality' (insofar as their skills as outside backs are concerned). If not, their skills as an outside back should come first and foremost.
Fellow G&G members may argue that Daugunu does not have the same polish as an outside back compared to some of his teammates.

 

[fatprop]

I wouldn't select Kellaway either. I'd either have Daugunu or Paisami. Our bench issue is definitely a lack of coverage for 12 in particular (and to a lesser extent 13) which is why I'd potentially lean to Paisami. I'm not the biggest fan but it's definitely the biggest issue we'd face if there was an injury somewhere.

Potter and Jorgensen don't really provide versatility outside of the back 3 which makes it very hard to have either Pietsch or Toole on the bench in my opinion.

Yeah, I would pick Daugunu off the bench, I think he could play a shift at 12 if he had to (or Donaldson at a pinch)

Kellaway hasn't been good enough, really smart player, but we now have really smart wingers with higher work rates

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Anybody - What's the Score on Saturday night?

My guess is 31-15 Lions win.

I think a bit closer and very similar to the last tour.

23/17 loss

 

[parkfootyenthusiast2]

Nothing specific that I've seen.

I just see his game as being far better suited to setting the tone physically from the start than trying to provide impact in the last half an hour.

You're aligned with Eddie Jones on this one - for whatever that is worth.

Jones basically came out and said the Wallabies should go big early, start Tupou and Skelton, as well as Nic White? He also advocating starting Donaldson. 1/4 aint bad Eddie.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

You're aligned with Eddie Jones on this one - for whatever that is worth.

Jones basically came out and said the Wallabies should go big early, start Tupou and Skelton, as well as Nic White? He also advocating starting Donaldson. 1/4 aint bad Eddie.

This is almost hate speech.

 

[Braveheart81]

I would probably pick Paisami in the 23 shirt personally primarily as coverage for 12. Ikitau covers 13, Sua'ali'i covers wing and fullback.

It's a more conservative selection as it is about risk mitigation rather than upside (because if all goes well Paisami wouldn't take the field until the final minutes).

You're aligned with Eddie Jones on this one - for whatever that is worth.

Jones basically came out and said the Wallabies should go big early, start Tupou and Skelton, as well as Nic White? He also advocating starting Donaldson. 1/4 aint bad Eddie.

I don't know that Tupou is in the same category. He can play more a bit more fast and loose (at his best).

Skelton is going to hit rucks and disrupt mauls and is best in tight. If the game opens up and there are fewer breakdowns he's probably least impactful.

 

[Agent]

Reading the tea leaves, I think this will be the team.

Also, in honour of Christy, here's my exclusive prediction of our team for the first test.

1. Bell
2. Faessler
3. Ala'alatoa
4. Williams
5. Skelton
6. Gleeson
7. McReight
8. Wilson
9. Gordon
10. Lynagh
11. Potter
12. Ikitau
13. Sua'ali'i
14. Jorgensen
15. Wright

16. Porecki 17. Slipper 18. Nonggorr 19. Frost 20. Hooper 21. McDermott 22. Donaldson 23. Kellaway

I would exclusively swap Gleeson for Hooper. Hooper is a genuine 2nd jumping option where as Gleeson is more a ball running back rower like Wilson.

 

[Braveheart81]

I would exclusively swap Gleeson for Hooper. Hooper is a genuine 2nd jumping option where as Gleeson is more a ball running back rower like Wilson.

I thought Hooper played well against Fiji and is generally in good form but I think we are going to need the physicality and ball running in the forwards more than anything else.

Gleeson was excellent against Fiji filling in for Valetini and that's primarily what I'm looking for. Someone to replace Valetini.

 

[parkfootyenthusiast2]

I don't know that Tupou is in the same category. He can play more a bit more fast and loose (at his best).

Skelton is going to hit rucks and disrupt mauls and is best in tight. If the game opens up and there are fewer breakdowns he's probably least impactful.

Haha I didn't say I'D pick Tupou... I just said Eddie would.

 

[Dctarget]

Lions news:

- Pollock and Farrell not in 23, Hansen and Kinghorn out injured
- Backrow of Chessum, Curry, Conan
- Marcus Smith on the bench

 

[Dctarget]

Their backrow gets me hopeful. Curry has been well off his best form (I would've picked Morgan or Van Der Flier) and Chessum is playing out of position. I'm also not big on Conan but understand he's quality. The Lions might have a torrid night at the ruck if they're not careful.

Means that Itoje/McCarthy are lock pairings. Pretty good lineout though with Chessum too.

Also Keenan is forced to play now through no options, he's coming off being quite sick, not in Test fitness I'd say. I'm going to keep clutching at straws.

Probable 15 then:

1. Genge
2. Sheehan
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5. McCarthy
6. Chessum
7. Curry
8. Conan
9. Gibson-Park
10. Russell
11. Lowe
12. Tuipulotu
13. Jones
14. Freeman
15. Keenan

 

[Wobblies2027]

My 2 bobs:
Front Row - Cohesion is key vs lions- Slipper (40mins) & AAA starting with all-tahs front row coming in off the bench (suspect I will cop heat for this but happy to have the discussion) and appreciate the point of not fielding your best XV from kick off. Faessler is the form hooker for me.
Second Row - Frost / Skelton (50mins for Williams), no-brainers for mine.
Back-Row - I think Langi has out-performed Wilson (c) this year but for consistency sake, Wilson keeps his spot & captains (although sounds like schmidt will name JG to captain and start). FMR 80mins. BobbyV - doubt he will play and I would bring in Langi at 6 if the case with Hooper cover bench)
Halves (9) - if anyone has concerns about TMD's kicking game, refer you to Oz. vs Georgia game (which leads to my next point) where he kicked exceptionally well from the base of the ruck.
First-Five Lynagh to start - I have concerns about giving a rookie 10 his first start against a powerhouse (ref. carter Gordon vs. AB's 2023 MCG - nightmare) but best option as Donaldson shouldn't start - watch Oz. /Georgia game last year for rationale.
Centres - Ikitau/JAS
Back 3 - Pietsch/Wright/Jorgo - these 3 are our best chance of breaking the game open IF lynagh / Suallii can distribute & find space for them.
Bench - Argument for Hooper to take the bench over Tizzano as I'm not sure what Tizzano will add given FMR wont come off but I like the thought of attacking the breakdown which the Waratahs did so well HOWEVER the lions will be ultra conscious of this and will get the ball the hell out of their own half through kicking into the corners.
- Gordon to close out / lead in the closing minutes and JOC (James O'Connor) to come on as coverage if needed but if Len goes down in the first minute (ref. Leileifano vs Lions 2013) this will be a major issue.

On the lions - IMO, the Hansen injury is a blessing in disguise for Farrell - James Lowe's left boot will prove lethal & i think the match-defining selections.

On form and in summary - the Lions SHOULD comfortably win this game as they have the superior team. A rookie 10 and (potentially) no Valetini are too much to overcome for the Wallabies but if they are going to steal a win, the cauldron is where it will happen.

1	James Slipper
2	Matt Faessler
3	Allan Ala'alatoa
4	Nick Frost
5	Will Skelton
6	Rob Valetini
7	Fraser McReight
8	Harry Wilson ©
9	Tate McDermott
10	Tom Lynagh
11	Dylan Pietsch
12	Len Ikitau
13	Joseph-Aukuso Sua'ali'i
14	Max Jorgensen
15	Tom Wright
16	David Porecki
17	Taniela Tupou
18	Angus Bell
19	Jeremy Williams
20	Langi Gleeson
21	Carlo Tizzano
22	Jake Gordon
23	James O'Connor