Wallaby 31 players for 2015 RWC

[Purce]

@ Peter Toohey,

Back to front of this thread and the start it was said that Skelton couldn't be considered until he played 80 minutes and caught some lineout ball. Now the goal posts are moving?

Sanzar stats say he has taken 17 lineouts (1 turnover last night) while Arnold has 24. However Skelton has made 200+ metres with ball in hand and made 24 offloads and 3 clean breaks. He also has a 93% tackle completion.

http://www.sanzarrugby.com/superrugby/teams/?competition=205&season=2015&team=200

Skelton beats Arnold on every metric except lineouts caught and that is only by a statistically small margin.

Carter the stats say only makes 80% of his tackles and makes exactly 1 metre per carry with the ball with no offloads, no tackles broken or defenders beaten.

Colman comes closest to Skelton in terms of run offloads and clean breaks etc and actually makes more metres than big Wil per run. But again his defence is not as high in terms of completion.

As for the old heads Horwill has had two red cards to start with but his defence is high 80% completion and he makes less than a metre per carry. Simmons is very similar to Horwill with better defence and slightly better carrying of the ball (which was a surprise).

I think it is pretty obvious from the stats that the starting second row will be a combination of Skelton and either Carter or Simmons. The 6 will then be one of Jones, Higgers or Fardy and at this stage I think it will go to the incumbent.

I think the most impressive thing about Skelton this year is the way he has been able to continue playing his running and offloading game, while improving his lineout and scrum work, all while being heavily marked by sometimes three opponents. He more than any other player since Willy O attracts multiple defenders for an Australian side. I cannot see how he can be omitted from the starting side. Knowing his lineout limitations just means the team has to use his skills in that area correctly, at 2 or as a lifter and include the right balance in the backrow.

Why no mention of Luke Jones in this piece? More runs (124), more run meters (252), more clean breaks(4), more line out wins and steals(43/1), more tackles (106), higher tackle completion (94.6%), less turnovers conceded (10). Skelton tops him in defenders beaten, offloads and passes. Jones is THE best performing lock in the aus conference.

Surprisingly (to me) the next best lock behind Jones and Skelton statistically is Dennis.

 

[Gnostic]

Why no mention of Luke Jones in this piece? More runs (124), more run meters (252), more clean breaks(4), more line out wins and steals(43/1), more tackles (106), higher tackle completion (94.6%), less turnovers conceded (10). Skelton tops him in defenders beaten, offloads and passes. Jones is THE best performing lock in the aus conference.

Surprisingly (to me) the next best lock behind Jones and Skelton statistically is Dennis.

I didn't mention either because I and I think most others here regard both as Locks. Interesting the interview quoted above with Jones saying he is going to concentrate on lock. I certainly see a place on the bench for Jones, in fact I would have him there as both lock 6 cover and I don't think there is anybody else in Oz who could fill the role as well.

 

[KOB1987]

Jones is the best performing lock of the Aussies in this super season and for that reason and his adaptability to 6 (nothwithstanding the cheika interview) he will be on the plane.


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[Chris McCracken]

Why no mention of Luke Jones in this piece? More runs (124), more run meters (252), more clean breaks(4), more line out wins and steals(43/1), more tackles (106), higher tackle completion (94.6%), less turnovers conceded (10). Skelton tops him in defenders beaten, offloads and passes. Jones is THE best performing lock in the aus conference.

Surprisingly (to me) the next best lock behind Jones and Skelton statistically is Dennis.

I like Jones and would have him in the squad. But, it's pointless loading up on Joneses and Dennises without having excellent scrummaging as a key trait in a RWC. Simmons, Horwill and, nowadays, Skelton fit that for me.

I wouldn't take Dennis, but I would take Jones for his work rate and ability to manage 4 and 6, for which I think he's the top candidate in the country.

 

[Gnostic]

Any analysis of the statistics has to consider the areas of play that the various numbers are achieved. I am sure that more umbers people could give empirical evidence for it but my subject view is that Skelton makes a lot of metres in the middle of the field regardless of the defenders being backs or forwards. Jones is far more mobile and has been used running on the wings at times. (funny as an aside that Higgers is critcised for running on the wings but the World's best 8, K. Reid, is very often positioned on the wing, or supporting the wing). Also consider the offloads Skelton makes under the attention of multiple defenders.

If four locks are being taken in order of selection I think it will be:-

1. Skelton
2. Simmons
3. Jones
4. Horwill/Carter

That then plays into who will be selected in the back row to balance

6. Fardy (covered by McCalman and Jones)
7. Hooper & Pocock (Gill is pushing hard and may well displace McCalman or a back reserve but the question would be is there a genuine intention to play him if not he wouldn't go)
8. Palu (Covered by McCalman)

 

[TOCC]

I would take Dennis ahead of Carter


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[Chris McCracken]

Any analysis of the statistics has to consider the areas of play that the various numbers are achieved. I am sure that more umbers people could give empirical evidence for it but my subject view is that Skelton makes a lot of metres in the middle of the field regardless of the defenders being backs or forwards. Jones is far more mobile and has been used running on the wings at times. (funny as an aside that Higgers is critcised for running on the wings but the World's best 8, K. Reid, is very often positioned on the wing, or supporting the wing). Also consider the offloads Skelton makes under the attention of multiple defenders.

If four locks are being taken in order of selection I think it will be:-

1. Skelton
2. Simmons
3. Jones
4. Horwill/Carter

That then plays into who will be selected in the back row to balance

6. Fardy (covered by McCalman and Jones)
7. Hooper & Pocock (Gill is pushing hard and may well displace McCalman or a back reserve but the question would be is there a genuine intention to play him if not he wouldn't go)
8. Palu (Covered by McCalman)

This is precisely what I have come up with. Though I'm sold on Horwill in front of Carter. Because scrum.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I still want us to try Jones at eight but accept that it may not happen this year (or maybe even ever).

 

[BDA]

Surely Beale couldn't be in Cheika's 23 to face the boks.

The tough selection for me is working out which of AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) / JOC (James O'Connor) / Speight / Horne to leave out of the 23. For mine, 2 start and one goes on the bench. I think Speight needs to get some tests under his belt asap.

 

[qwerty51]

11. Mitchell
14. Speight

23. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)

 

[Purce]

I didn't mention either because I and I think most others here regard both as Locks.

Huh? Everyone you compare in the post is a lock? Do you mean you do not consider them locks? Going on both their performances IMO I'd now consider them both to be locks then 6's.

I'm in agreeance with the rest of your post. Jones should be on the bench.

 

[Bairdy]

I didn't mention either because I and I think most others here regard both as Locks. Interesting the interview quoted above with Jones saying he is going to concentrate on lock. I certainly see a place on the bench for Jones, in fact I would have him there as both lock 6 cover and I don't think there is anybody else in Oz who could fill the role as well.

Dennis

 

[No4918]

Mitchell's claim to fame in the last 2 years is one good try a couple of weeks ago. Not in my squad for TRC or RWC.

 

[USARugger]

Did you watch the match? His defense was farkin' excellent. He sort of demolished Jonathan Davies and a few other guys.

 

[Scrubber2050]

Skelton is playing well in general play

Its just a shame the bloke cannot scrum or jump in lineouts.

That will relegate him to a bench spot

Betcha betcha betcha

 

[fatprop]

Skelton is playing well in general play

Its just a shame the bloke cannot scrum or jump in lineouts.

That will relegate him to a bench spot

Betcha betcha betcha

Close, but Skelton has been scrummaging quite well.

His work in maul destruction on the weekend was just amazing

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[KOB1987]

and his lineout jumping was last year's problem..it's still not world class but at least he's an option now..

 

[Brumby Runner]

@ Peter Toohey,

Back to front of this thread and the start it was said that Skelton couldn't be considered until he played 80 minutes and caught some lineout ball. Now the goal posts are moving?

Sanzar stats say he has taken 17 lineouts (1 turnover last night) while Arnold has 24. However Skelton has made 200+ metres with ball in hand and made 24 offloads and 3 clean breaks. He also has a 93% tackle completion.

http://www.sanzarrugby.com/superrugby/teams/?competition=205&season=2015&team=200

Skelton beats Arnold on every metric except lineouts caught and that is only by a statistically small margin.

Carter the stats say only makes 80% of his tackles and makes exactly 1 metre per carry with the ball with no offloads, no tackles broken or defenders beaten.

Colman comes closest to Skelton in terms of run offloads and clean breaks etc and actually makes more metres than big Wil per run. But again his defence is not as high in terms of completion.

As for the old heads Horwill has had two red cards to start with but his defence is high 80% completion and he makes less than a metre per carry. Simmons is very similar to Horwill with better defence and slightly better carrying of the ball (which was a surprise).

I think it is pretty obvious from the stats that the starting second row will be a combination of Skelton and either Carter or Simmons. The 6 will then be one of Jones, Higgers or Fardy and at this stage I think it will go to the incumbent.

I think the most impressive thing about Skelton this year is the way he has been able to continue playing his running and offloading game, while improving his lineout and scrum work, all while being heavily marked by sometimes three opponents. He more than any other player since Willy O attracts multiple defenders for an Australian side. I cannot see how he can be omitted from the starting side. Knowing his lineout limitations just means the team has to use his skills in that area correctly, at 2 or as a lifter and include the right balance in the backrow.

Gnostic, you've nailed it in relation to the locks. If Aus go well in the RWC it will be due in no small part to the impact Will Skelton has on a game. Those who think his set piece is not up to scratch apparently haven't watched him play this year. And his defense of the rolling maul is just getting better and better, and will largely take that weapon out of the armory of their opponents come RWC time.

I think one of Simmons, Carter or Jones will partner Will in the second row, probably Simmons. I'd probably prefer Jones for his greater workload. But either of Coleman or Arnold are looking good as backups for Skelton. I wouldn't be surprised if one or other make the squad this year.

 

[BDA]

Gnostic, you've nailed it in relation to the locks. If Aus go well in the RWC it will be due in no small part to the impact Will Skelton has on a game. Those who think his set piece is not up to scratch apparently haven't watched him play this year. And his defense of the rolling maul is just getting better and better, and will largely take that weapon out of the armory of their opponents come RWC time.

I think we should temper our excitement somewhat until the test season. On face value it looks like Skelton has made huge strides in the set piece. However, we won't know how far he's come until he plays against some decent test sides. It was only 8 months ago that he was a major liability in the scrum for the wallabies. He appears to have turned that around in Super Rugby but that doesn't necessarily mean it will translate to the test arena.

I call that the Ben Alexander Effect

 

[BDA]

Mods, is it perhaps time to introduce a few new threads given that we're now getting approaching the test season.

Maybe a general "Wallabies WC Campaign" thread and a "Wallabies Rugby Championship Campaign" thread would be good. I'm not sure where to post some of my comments.

- I note that Tuilagi is out of the world cup. Whilst England have a number of other options, I'd say this is a fairly significant blow for the world cup campaign. He was one of the stand-out players for England in their series against the All Blacks last June; England's main attacking weapon in the backline. I suspect the coaching team expected him to be there come the WC and were building a game-plan that involved his strengths at inside centre.

I wonder if this might open the door slightly for Sam Burgess, who has similar tackle busting power.