Where to for Super Rugby?

[Killer]

That would involve the RUPA doing more than just issuing press releases though. Not sure they have it in them TBH.

Yeah if Rod Kafer, a former rupa president (I think), is any indication of the calibre of their representation then they are the ARU's "you know what" But with potentially a new "you know what" master in town they will be torn and maybe start doing their job.

 

[The Honey Badger]

Um, why do the Sunwolves need a survival plan? They are not at risk.

Thought they had been told their performances were not at Super standard and had to improve.

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[stoff]

Now this is where it all starts to get really intersting and World Rugby (and especially the ARU will be getting vety nervous).

So lets just put aside the institutionalised views and beliefs and look what we have.

So is Rugby WA a union? Would anyone strip Rugby WA of that status for political gain and hurt players especially if its expanding the game; the publicity (and there is international reporting on this) would be quite significant? They are only making the best of a bad situation and wanting to keep rugby going in WA.

So, putting yourselves in the shoes of World Rugby would you say no to a massive investment from a solid investment and risk showing you will shut down people willing to put millions in to grow the game? Remember this is being played on the international stage and not some backyard stouch in NSW! (remember the ARU has chewed through $770mil in 10 years, Twiggy just made more than 50% of that just in profits this year so the funding cash cow is on a different scale).

If Twiggy were to sang a Japanese team World Rugby would not dare a fight pre-RWC.

If Twiggy were to get TV coverage (backing) again (just remember Kerry Stokes has also weighed in on this) would World Rugby dare act as TV will follow the money and the ARU and SANZAAR may find negotiations very difficult in future.

The other question to ask is in reality is how much power do World Rugby really have? It would only take one "group" to break ranks and the door opens for others and then what will World Rugby do? Exclude countries, impose sanctions, block player trades and movement? Really, what can they do?

Even if they could, would they want to in this situation it maybe the saviour of the game here and the interference could be the final dropping of the axe that ends it all.

The argument about access to the "best" players is really moot. The Wallabies pool of players is still quite small and Ben Mowen showed that not all players are interested in playing the ARU selection games. Other good players certainly can play internationally (without the Wallaby dependency we wish they had) playing in invite tournaments and Barbarian games (like Lilo did 2 seasons ago) which shows that you can be top flight and not in favour for national selection and still play on the international stage with the best players in the world.

Looking at really successful rugby (as in ratings / crowds / support) being played right now its the Mitre 10 and Currie Cup which only "FEATURES" some of the top flight players and is fantastic to watch and is the key demonstration that you don't need the draw cards to built a good product. In fact, it the place draw cards are built (PS: you will notice in SA its not the Currie Cup teams having issues its the Super Rugby teams!)

So let get real and look at the contenders in this cage fight: Regulation 16.2.1 v $445mil worth of dividends (at least) and several hundred Rugby players, multiple clubs and an audience who wants to see good rugby (sanctioned or not).

I would be interested to see the attitudes of players right now. Jobs being cut, contacts being blocked by the ARU...

The power in world rugby isn't in the Southern Hemisphere. You forget there are a number of unions doing quite nicely up north who will not stand by and watch the status quo be rocked. If you think WR (World Rugby) wouldn't back the ARU cutting a rebel union if it meant a possible rocking of the boat elsewhere I think you may be surprised.


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[dru]

The power in world rugby isn't in the Southern Hemisphere. You forget there are a number of unions doing quite nicely up north who will not stand by and watch the status quo be rocked. If you think WR (World Rugby) wouldn't back the ARU cutting a rebel union if it meant a possible rocking of the boat elsewhere I think you may be surprised.


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Time may well tell, Stoff. Suffice to say the opinion that WR (World Rugby) would stomp on Twiggy is at best unclear.

 

[Killer]

The power in world rugby isn't in the Southern Hemisphere. You forget there are a number of unions doing quite nicely up north who will not stand by and watch the status quo be rocked. If you think WR (World Rugby) wouldn't back the ARU cutting a rebel union if it meant a possible rocking of the boat elsewhere I think you may be surprised.


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who's to say it will all be negative. Besides why would these people choose to fight someone like TF when they could all do a deal and work together for everyone's benefit, I'm sure they are well aware the ARU are useless, just have to ask the other members of sanzaar.
If they want to pick a fight with TF he will hit back. But they are businessmen too and not interested in stupid fights, that's just the idiots at the ARU.

 

[I like to watch]

I hope someone has installed a camera crew at ARU HQ, & over the west to cover the shennanagins, has the makings of a blockbuster fly on the wall type docu drama!

 

[Jon]

who's to say it will all be negative. Besides why would these people choose to fight someone like TF when they could all do a deal and work together for everyone's benefit, I'm sure they are well aware the ARU are useless, just have to ask the other members of sanzaar.

If they want to pick a fight with TF he will hit back. But they are businessmen too and not interested in stupid fights, that's just the idiots at the ARU.

One would think that WR (World Rugby) might be open to actually looking at the evidence as opposed to ignoring the majority of it like the ARU as well.

If - and it's a big if - a new competition can be created with local regional partners who are currently not in Super Rugby, and the business/operations/financial plans check out you'd have to imagine they would at least consider it. if not look upon it favourably. As ultimately more professional rugby means more money for them down the line. As well as greater exposure.

Probably getting very much ahead of myself here but, this also has the potential to be the precursor to the competition that replaces Super Rugby. As it could be expanded to include the remaining aus Super Rugby teams. as well as the kiwis should we find ourselves without Super Rugby to play in.

(the concept of the ARU coming begging to a competition created because they fucked over one of their member unions is also just so goddamned juicy. I would love it to happen)

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Not really World Rugby has nothing to do with super rugby nor any other domestic league.

If we have to have another super league type war for oz rugby to sort out its shit I am all for it.

We need a frigging revolution and revolt imo to get people to actually give a shit and do something. Example is with decision to cut the Force which led to more wider public support and energy behind wa rugby than ever seen before.

Oz rugby supporters and stakeholders are a pretty apathetic bunch who will whinge a lot but do bugger all about it until major pain about to be inflicted on their interest group.



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[Sauron]

If we have to have another super league type war for oz rugby to sort out its shit I am all for it.

We need a frigging revolution and revolt imo to get people to actually give a shit and do something. Example is with decision to cut the Force which led to more wider public support and energy behind wa rugby than ever seen before.

Oz rugby supporters and stakeholders are a pretty apathetic bunch who will whinge a lot but do bugger all about it until major pain about to be inflicted on their interest group.



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100% agree.

One of the worst things about this current crisis, is the fact that people have gone beyond anger to ridicule and complete apathy.

Fan interest is dying fast.

 

[mst]

The power in world rugby isn't in the Southern Hemisphere. You forget there are a number of unions doing quite nicely up north who will not stand by and watch the status quo be rocked. If you think WR (World Rugby) wouldn't back the ARU cutting a rebel union if it meant a possible rocking of the boat elsewhere I think you may be surprised.


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You raise a good point and in doing so may have identified the achilles heal of WR (World Rugby). If the Southern Hemisphere don't want the WR (World Rugby) ways they certainly can go it alone.

It well reported the NZRU want better deals and a better system. The SARU have a foot on each side of the equator and both Ireland and SA (both Pro 14) are 2 of the 3 RWC 2023 bidders.

On top of the the 2019 RWC also sits down south so the power you say the WR (World Rugby) has in the NH may not really be much. It lays with the next dollar.

The heavy hitters in the NH are the RFU and FRU and both rely on the SH team for revenue generation at the test level.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Time may well tell, Stoff. Suffice to say the opinion that WR (World Rugby) would stomp on Twiggy is at best unclear.

Does anybody actually support the ARU anymore......? Serious question as they indeed seem to have lost the support of most of oz rugby public (what's left of them they have not killed off) and probably most of the major rugby stakeholders as well. I mean who actually wants the ARU? Not I sir.

 

[Highlander35]

That's a strange way of looking at it mst.

I reckon they'd be more than happy to go go double round robin 6 Nations and look to see the SH boys come crawling back for NH subsidisation, particularly given the comparatively stable Domestic scene, which needs a significantly smaller fraction of top down support than the structures down here do.

 

[mst]

Not really. By reports Magnay is being has been denied a Reds contract (ie a Super Rugby contract) if he looks to experience in Japan in the off season.

Fixed. As with Alcock, Toua and Ah-Wong.

 

[mst]

That's a strange way of looking at it mst.

I reckon they'd be more than happy to go go double round robin 6 Nations and look to see the SH boys come crawling back for NH subsidisation, particularly given the comparatively stable Domestic scene, which needs a significantly smaller fraction of top down support than the structures down here do.

Which requires they split the unions, kill the BIL tours, end of year tours.......and the NH audience could be over the repetitive content it quickly.

We live in a world where Trump is president so nothing is ever too strange to happen.

Actually, the decline in live TV sports audience and the need for variety in content is a key determining factor.

 

[Strewthcobber]

That's a strange way of looking at it mst.

I reckon they'd be more than happy to go go double round robin 6 Nations and look to see the SH boys come crawling back for NH subsidisation, particularly given the comparatively stable Domestic scene, which needs a significantly smaller fraction of top down support than the structures down here do.

Yep, England has been happy enough to not play NZ for 4 years until November 2018 up north and aren't exactly short of cash

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[Highlander35]

Which requires they split the unions, kill the BIL tours, end of year tours...and the NH audience could be over the repetitive content it quickly.

I'm struggling to see something there that wouldn't also apply to the SH audience but not impact them faster due to the comparative lack of liquid funds, financial security in the domestic game and real estate assets, all of which put any financial war of attrition firmly in the NH's favour.

 

[stoff]

That's a strange way of looking at it mst.

I reckon they'd be more than happy to go go double round robin 6 Nations and look to see the SH boys come crawling back for NH subsidisation, particularly given the comparatively stable Domestic scene, which needs a significantly smaller fraction of top down support than the structures down here do.

Those domestic leagues are also where their millionaires and billionaires already play out their rugby fantasies.


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[stoff]

who's to say it will all be negative. Besides why would these people choose to fight someone like TF when they could all do a deal and work together for everyone's benefit, I'm sure they are well aware the ARU are useless, just have to ask the other members of sanzaar.
If they want to pick a fight with TF he will hit back. But they are businessmen too and not interested in stupid fights, that's just the idiots at the ARU.

These people don't give a shit who Forrest is. They don't give a shit that the ARU are useless right now. They give a shit about maintaining the order they preside over. They are basically the ARU on a huge scale.


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[mst]

I'm struggling to see something there that wouldn't also apply to the SH audience but not impact them faster due to the comparative lack of liquid funds, financial security in the domestic game and real estate assets, all of which put any financial war of attrition firmly in the NH's favour.

It would be a new competition that is not encumbered by a set calendar or locked in to WR (World Rugby) rules, catering to a market that is wanting content.

Internationals would be irrelevant to this SH competition which is the key money spinner to HN unions like the RFU.

With the "öld" unions compromised with weaker teams and less supporter / audience base (player bases split) which could mean lower TV dollars it becomes a significant risk to revenue.

So in reality there is nothing stopping a new Aus v NZ v SA V pacific nations international series (representing each country) in direct competition of the WR (World Rugby) format. It can be held when they want to maximise rating etc.

The key is if it not "endorsed" by WR (World Rugby) there ain't no rules to bind it which is a real threat to the establishment if it actually got off the ground. Next you know some American with money will try it........

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Yep Northern Hemisphere have the population, the big billionaires/millionaires playing fantasy rugby (in French and English comps at least) and in turn the player base...

And now got South African sides in Pro 14 which only strengthens Northern Hemisphere's status....

Our best bet is to look to Asian for long term salvation and growth as remember how much money being pumped into Rugby in China!!! Plus Japan still relatively close to be involved.....

Yes not a short term plan but long term our only way commercially to grow given smaller populations of OZ and NZ (and fact SA and Argentina is just too far geographically).