Round 6 - Reds v Waratahs - Suncorp

[Wilson]

Lineout is doing well enough to handle that.

On a related topic: @RugbyReg where are you putting ASY (Angus Scott-Young)? Uru is tearing it up, Wright is such a great player, and the other 2 aren't going anywhere.

Potentially replaces Vest on the bench, depending on if they're still interested in experimenting with him as a lock option. Alternatively Uru shifts across into the locks but he's probably playing too well to move. It all gets much more complicated when Salakaia-Loto returns.

 

[Braveheart81]

Harris has been excellent this season and had a bad game against the Reds. I wouldn't be ditching him for that. He's got a big motor and has played 80 minutes or close to it most weeks and while he's looked like he was about to die a few times late in games, his ability to keep pushing has been good.

I would still have him as the starting 8.

Let's have a look when we've actually got Swinton back. I'd probably go Swinton, Hooper, Harris with Gamble as the impact sub for Swinton if that was the case.

 

[Pfitzy]

Potentially replaces Vest on the bench, depending on if they're still interested in experimenting with him as a lock option. Alternatively Uru shifts across into the locks but he's probably playing too well to move. It all gets much more complicated when Salakaia-Loto returns.

It might be that Thorn starts putting LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) on the bench anyway given he's signed overseas? Your starting locks on Saturday got through a power of work.

And locks aren't the issue with your lineout.

 

[RugbyReg]

Lineout is doing well enough to handle that.

On a related topic: @RugbyReg where are you putting ASY (Angus Scott-Young)? Uru is tearing it up, Wright is such a great player, and the other 2 aren't going anywhere.

Full strength squad I don’t think ASY (Angus Scott-Young) makes it. I’d have LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) there ahead of him in the 23.

 

[Wilson]

It might be that Thorn starts putting LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) on the bench anyway given he's signed overseas? Your starting locks on Saturday got through a power of work.

And locks aren't the issue with your lineout.

Yeah, there's a chance he does but I think there will be a big focus on getting the best team out there against the Kiwi sides. Either way I don't see him leaving any of Blyth, Smith and Salakaia-Loto out of the 23, which means there's only room for 2 of Wright, Uru and ASY (Angus Scott-Young) as standard. At this point that looks most like Wright missing out, even though he's co-captain and not playing poorly. There's a lot of utility in the backs though, so I wouldn't be amazed to see a 6-2 split tried.

 

[DELETE ACCOUNT]

Potentially replaces Vest on the bench, depending on if they're still interested in experimenting with him as a lock option. Alternatively Uru shifts across into the locks but he's probably playing too well to move. It all gets much more complicated when Salakaia-Loto returns.

Only a problem for the next 6 months before the mass exodus begins. Those not on Rennie's radar for RWC 2023 will be looking for the $$$$$ in other paddocks I reckon.

 

[Pfitzy]

At this point that looks most like Wright missing out, even though he's co-captain and not playing poorly.

I reckon Wright is your perfect Samu-like player in that he can cover the entire back row and move between jackal, link man, and lineout roles. ASY (Angus Scott-Young) not as much on the first two, tho he is a bloody hard worker.

 

[Wilson]

I reckon Wright is your perfect Samu-like player in that he can cover the entire back row and move between jackal, link man, and lineout roles. ASY (Angus Scott-Young) not as much on the first two, tho he is a bloody hard worker.

Yeah, I always feel very safe having Wright coming off the bench, he's just the sort of player you want to close out games and do a job as required. Main thing that makes me think ASY (Angus Scott-Young) might get the nod is lineout - he was calling them before he went down injured and I know they rate him there, at least tactically.

 

[LeCheese]

Yeah, I always feel very safe having Wright coming off the bench, he's just the sort of player you want to close out games and do a job as required. Main thing that makes me think ASY (Angus Scott-Young) might get the nod is lineout - he was calling them before he went down injured and I know they rate him there, at least tactically.

Could be wrong, but the lineout seemed to improve when Wright came on too, which maybe lessens that leg up for ASY (Angus Scott-Young) a bit

 

[RugbyReg]

I think the lineouts on the weekend were pretty much solely down to Nasser's throwing. I think the guy has been terrific this year. Far surpassed my expectations and doing a bloody fine job as a #3 hooking option. But that throwing is not as easy as it looks and in wet conditions against some canny and experienced jumpers, he was pressured into mistakes.

Perhaps your theory around Wright could be as much to do with him coming on as a replacement about 5 minutes before Nasser departed.

 

[Wilson]

I think the lineouts on the weekend were pretty much solely down to Nasser's throwing. I think the guy has been terrific this year. Far surpassed my expectations and doing a bloody fine job as a #3 hooking option. But that throwing is not as easy as it looks and in wet conditions against some canny and experienced jumpers, he was pressured into mistakes.

Perhaps your theory around Wright could be as much to do with him coming on as a replacement about 5 minutes before Nasser departed.

He's really stepped up at the right time, hasn't he. So happy to see the transition to hooker is working, I've always really liked him as a player. Hopefully the throwing will come with more time in the role, he has only been doing it for a couple of years and with only limited opportunities under pressure.

 

[RugbyReg]

He's really stepped up at the right time, hasn't he. So happy to see the transition to hooker is working, I've always really liked him as a player. Hopefully the throwing will come with more time in the role, he has only been doing it for a couple of years and with only limited opportunities under pressure.

and with three hookers in a squad how many actual throws would he have gotten over the years with key jumpers? Not 1000 hours worth that's for sure.

 

[Up the Guts]

Who starts ahead of Harris in the Tahs squad so he can come on for "Impact"?

TBH that seems like a bit of a throwaway statement, and doesn't take team balance or game plan into account. Harris did not carry the ball very much - 4 runs for 2 metres according to ESPN, which I don't really accept as the gospel truth, but is a useful comparison tool, judged against itself.

On the same stats base, Wilson racked up 55 metres off 13 runs, but wasn't exactly blasting holes in the Tahs' defence. And he had Tupou out there with him who is a primary source of gain line ball. So did Wilson have a quiet game and maybe need some time off the bench?

For the record: I don't think either of the back rows were dominant - they all did a lot of the dirty work, they pretty much nullified each other on the main points around ruck time. The Tahs game was played wider and this is somewhat reflected in the stats. Number of carries top 5 according to ESPN:

QLD
- Wilson 13 (55m)
- Uru 13 (36m)
- McReight 11 (36m)
- Smith 9 (13m)
- Campbell 8 (107m) / JOC (James O'Connor) 8 (86m)
Nothing shocking there: Reds back row does a lot of ball carrying.

NSW
- Roberts 14 (49m)
- Marky M (Nawaqanitawase) 10 (104m)
- Edmed 8 (24m)
- Ruan Smith 8 (4m)
- Newsome 7 (67m) / Gamble 7 (24m) / Cridge 7 (6m)
There's a notable difference here: Tahs are using their backs more, while their bigger boys are just hitting up in close to try and suck in defence.

On the flipside: highest tackle count for the Reds is Stewart with 15 (2 missed), which reflects where the Tahs were putting the ball through Roberts. Midfield runs as a comparison: Roberts + Foketi 17 (107m) versus Stewart + Paisami 10 (39m).

The Reds had 6 players with double-digit tackle counts, while the Tahs had just 3. Similar number of overall tackles (QLD 134 / 128 NSW).

Worth noting off those stats - and I again stress that stats never tell the whole story - Edmed passed 30 times to JOC (James O'Connor)'s 16. I didn't see kick stats in there but I'll bet JOC (James O'Connor) played a lot of territory.

Excluding scrumhalves, the Tahs passed 109 times to the Reds' 69.
- Tahs 7 clean breaks to Reds 2.
- Tahs defenders beaten 20 to 15.
- Tahs offloads 8 to 5.
- Reds conceded 7 penalties - 2 of them cards - to Tahs 13.

What any stats don't tell you is where the penalties happened that meant a team could maul their way to a try instead of passing. Or how good the kicks were to set up field position and force the other side into another kick or take the pass option if the bounce/direction is favourable.

Or what the game plan was. In this case, Harris having a quiet night is probably reflected in the fact that he wasn't the fulcrum of the attack. The Tahs aren't the Reds, who rely on their back row to do a mountain of carrying with Tupou, and the other 4 forwards to cover rucks and support.

Diff'rent Strokes and all that.

I thought Wilson had a good game but the metres run stat is a bit off given he had one 20 odd metre charge off a line dropout.

 

[RugbyReg]

I thought Wilson had a good game but the metres run stat is a bit off given he had one 20 odd metre charge off a line dropout.

Yeah. He probably should have just stopped and waited for the Tahs to tackle him.

 

[Pfitzy]

and with three hookers in a squad how many actual throws would he have gotten over the years with key jumpers? Not 1000 hours worth that's for sure.

Could be a combination of time in the game and missing ASY (Angus Scott-Young) as the primary lineout caller. The Tahs marked up on Uru a couple of times as he seems to get a lot of ball - maybe a more experienced lineout caller sees that and starts to adjust.

 

[The Nomad]

Nasser’s lineout throws were just way too flat. Picked off at 2 easily by the Tah’s jumper getting up early and in front without really even having to reach that far.

Problem is when you are getting picked off at 2 it’s hard to confidently throw to 4 or 6, particularly when it’s a recently developed skill and has had limited time under match pressure.

 

[PhilClinton]

On a side note - both Reds hookers have been pinged for ‘borking’ over the last few weeks. Seems like some general confusion with the lineup setup itself, as well as average throws.

 

[Braveheart81]

On a side note - both Reds hookers have been pinged for ‘borking’ over the last few weeks. Seems like some general confusion with the lineup setup itself, as well as average throws.

Balking?

 

[Pfitzy]

Problem is when you are getting picked off at 2 it’s hard to confidently throw to 4 or 6, particularly when it’s a recently developed skill and has had limited time under match pressure.

Match pressure, yes. But if a hooker in the pro ranks can't throw a lob to any point in the lineout, it points to a development journey that didn't face many challenges. I'm aware he's only 22, but he should have been able to throw a lob to any position in the lineout from Colts.

 

[Braveheart81]

I'm aware he's only 22, but he should have been able to throw a lob to any position in the lineout from Colts.

I think the main issue for Nasser is that he was playing prop and only transitioned to being a hooker a couple of years ago.

His first couple of years out of school he was still a prop.