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Listening device found in All Black hotel

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Dan54

Dan54

Tim Horan (67)
Geez snottebox don't getting into writing movies mate, to even put this shit on a forum would indicate your imagination is to much to make even a semi plausible movie:p
As I said Gard says he didn't do it, and until he been to court or hear full story I not assuming he did.
As the Patrick Tuipulotu case I think shows, it sometimes pays to wait until we know what actually happened before we hang anyone!!
 
amirite

amirite

Chilla Wilson (44)
Snotterbox said:
If the charges are right, the security guard both planted and discovered the device. Who benefits?

Certainly not the ARU, if they paid him to snoop. That would be a triple blow: the loss of the bug, the loss of the information it would've provided, and a public relations black eye. The last thing they'd want is for it to be found.

And obviously not the press, for exactly the same reason. There's no surveillance use of a bug that includes it being found. Therefore, it wasn't for surveillance.

Why would anyone other than the ABs use a trusted AB employee for the job? It would be much easier to recruit one than 'turn' one of theirs. And besides, an outsider with a trusted double-agent inside the group wouldn't need a bug. The security staff sees everything.

The ABs benefited from the ritual public humiliation of their bunnies in yellow on game day [in addition to the usual on-field tonking]. Is that enough of a reason? That depends on the attitude of the perpetrator. Mockery is the new black.

Until this man was charged, the only ones who benefited were New Zealand rugby, as the 'victims' in a drama that painted their opponents in a bad light.

My only assumption is that Hanson is enough of a joker to do something like this.

QED.
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Your 7 paragraph response very much suggests this is not Occam's razor, nor would I call this 'analysis', but rather some very weighted opinions you've made based on the way Hanson behaves in the media (he is a 'joker' therefore it's LIKELY he committed fraud?).

It's at best extremely unlikely that the ABs, in what was to them a dead-rubber match, decided to plant a listening device and dob the Wallabies into the media, even presuming it was a lie that spiralled out of control.
kiap said:
Occam's Razor has some currency (even usefulness) within the physical sciences. That's where simple universal laws tend to apply.
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I understand what you're saying mate, but I think academia and convention pretty strongly disagrees with you, as do I.

'Social science' has a great degree of fluidity, like you said, so the removing of as many assumptions and biases (in the case of our friend) as possible has a great degree of value in working out what likely happened.

In context, you are arguing that our friend saying "Hanson planted a listening device, went to the media, and now has lied to police, to fuck with the Wallabies" is not extremely unlikely, even though there's a whole lot of assumptions made with no precedence in anything Hanson has done. Or at least, you're saying the unlikelihood of those presumptions holds no weight.

It's difficult to say "this is what happened", but using it as a tool we can comfortably say "this is likely, that is very unlikely".
 
Dan54

Dan54

Tim Horan (67)
Of course we could also have a case of Chuckles got it planted, and was actually behind it getting leaked to the press on Match day to take heat off Wallabies, and make ABs bad guys.
Surely we can come up with some other 'likely' theories!!:p
 
stoff

stoff

Bill McLean (32)
Dan54 said:
Surely we can come up with some other 'likely' theories!!:p
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Easy. Hansen was worried that the players were planning a revolt against him. Unsure if it was the French or Australian model of coach killing, he planted the bug to find out. Unfortunately the security guy, whilst assisting in a post meeting all blacks cleaning session, found the bug. Shags obviously had to deny all knowledge, then using his knowledge as a former detective framed the Aussie security guy. Now I have written it down it seems so obvious
 
amirite

amirite

Chilla Wilson (44)
stoff said:
Easy. Hansen was worried that the players were planning a revolt against him. Unsure if it was the French or Australian model of coach killing, he planted the bug to find out. Unfortunately the security guy, whilst assisting in a post meeting all blacks cleaning session, found the bug. Shags obviously had to deny all knowledge, then using his knowledge as a former detective framed the Aussie security guy. Now I have written it down it seems so obvious
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Genious.
 
p.Tah

p.Tah

John Thornett (49)
I have it on good authority Steve Tew asked Gard to plant it in the chair. He go wind of a plan by the All Black coaching team to start a Rebel Rugby competition. The device was found when Hansen who was sitting in the chair, farted and blew Gard's eardrum whilst he was eavesdropping. His scream alerted the coaching who although didn't see Gard, suspected they were being monitored. They asked Gard to do a sweep and he found the device. Hansen suspected the Aussies and rang Tew. Tew who was overseas at the time following his Olympics junket said it would in everyone's best interest to sit on it for a week until he got back whilst they worked out the best plan of action.
That plan turned out to be to infer it was the Aussies. Tew told the NZ media manager to contact Fairfax and leak the story.
Once back in Sydney with the story broken Tew stood triumphantly outside the Ritz Carlton in Sydney and briefed the media.

............. and that my friends is what happened, sort of, actually no. I made that up too.
 
Brumby Runner

Brumby Runner

David Wilson (68)
Dan54 said:
Of course we could also have a case of Chuckles got it planted, and was actually behind it getting leaked to the press on Match day to take heat off Wallabies, and make ABs bad guys.
Surely we can come up with some other 'likely' theories!!:p
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Dan, try and make the story fit the facts. I understand the bug was found days beforehand and the story only made it to the press on match day.
 
kiap

kiap

Steve Williams (59)
amirite said:
I understand what you're saying mate, but I think academia and convention pretty strongly disagrees with you, as do I.
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Here's what I think.

You cited something you thought might garner some 'science cred' within some whodunnit banter on a rugby chatboard.

But you dunno a helluva lot about it. Amirite or amirite?

:D
 
amirite

amirite

Chilla Wilson (44)
kiap said:
Here's what I think.

You cited something you thought might garner some 'science cred' within some whodunnit banter on a rugby chatboard.

But you dunno a helluva lot about it. Amirite or amirite?

:D
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Incorrect, I used a term attributed to a philosopher, which is neither a science nor a social science.

Additionally, the inference that a scientific theory (or the scientific method itself) can't be applied to other contexts is absurd.

No 'science cred' required on my part. You may continue, but wipe the egg off your face first.
 
Dan54

Dan54

Tim Horan (67)
Brumby Runner said:
Dan, try and make the story fit the facts. I understand the bug was found days beforehand and the story only made it to the press on match day.
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Oh bugger, didn't realise we had to make the story fit the facts, couldn't we still use my one with ARU had really been told about it a few days before and held back info until match day?? Geez I didn't say it was a believeable story Brumby:confused:.
Ok guess I won't write any mysteries for tv series:(

Actually on second thoughts Brumby, none of us seem to have any facts, just bits and pieces fron new media, which from experience isn't very reliable, so maybe ......
 
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