Australia v South Africa - Perth - 6 September 2014

[Pjmil]

While we are picking the team:

TPN to 2, Hansen to 16, manta ray out
Horwill to 5, Carter to 19
Higgers to 6, Fardy to 20
Speight to the bench, Hodgson out

You either start Fardy or leave him out, he's not an impact player. And honestly why can't he play 2nd row? He's 1.98cm and 113kg while Carter is 2m and 110kg and he has a bit of aggro. What's with Australian 2nd Rowers being placid oafs.

 

[fatprop]

I guess!

Look, before anyone says it, it's not anti-White, it was just a process of trying to critically analyse a player in a match.
As I have said repeatedly, I think both have problems at times, and Phipps had some big flaws in the past with his delivery. But it is hard to argue now that he is erratic, passes badly and is error-prone.
Yes, White is a better kicker, but of late, his kicking was not so flash.
I could go on with how the Phipps / Foley axis is complementary, and I suspect Phipps / Beale or White / Foley wouldn't necessarily work the same as Beale does not play as flat, and White is not quite as fast with his delivery.
I think both can improve, and hope they do.

yeah foley wasn't perfect, but his flatness in attack gave more space to the outsides (even with Beale on at the last, it was Foley who touched the ball twice for the try) and workrate and effort n defence (he chased hard to tackle Etzebeth after Habana's break)

On our scrum, it struggled when Slipper was wounded and stayed on, but before he went down and after he was replaced the scrum was all right

 

[D-Box]

I'm surprised that Folau keeps getting criticism for those two kicks that didn't make meters. From a side on point of view, he kicks the ball 40m down field from tight on the sideline and it lands just outside the field of play, closer to the line than he was standing. That means if the ball flew straight it crossed the line at least more than half the distance of the kick. But each time he was only awarded 10m or less. The touchie is indicating he has kicked it out only 10m down field where it has then turned and flown parallel to the line of touch.

I'd be interested to hear the point of view for someone who was at the game and may have had a better angle, but to me it seems we got duded and Folau didn't do as badly as some are suggesting.

Was sitting at the city end of the ground and looking down the line I reckon the AR got it right. Both the second half kicks had a fair bit of bend in them, either due to the kick or the breeze. I think they got pretty close to the second red line marked for the TV crew before coming back. One was actually only about 30cm from landing back infield

 

[fatprop]

I would like to see Kerevi in the 12 jersey at some point.

maybe November 2015

 

[Pfitzy]

Was sitting at the city end of the ground and looking down the line I reckon the AR got it right. Both the second half kicks had a fair bit of bend in them, either due to the kick or the breeze. I think they got pretty close to the second red line marked for the TV crew before coming back. One was actually only about 30cm from landing back infield

Agree. It looked windy as fuck

 

[Hawko]

TWAS both locks were poor whatever way you look at it..one of them will be replaced in the starting lineup by horwill and whichever one escapes link's machete will need to lift their game immensely


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Given the scrum issue against the Argies I can see Horwill and Skelton starting to provide enough grunt. Losing lineouts can be bad, but losing tight heads and penalty tries is suicide.

 

[qwerty51]

No Speight - Tomane called up.

 

[Wilson]

Given the scrum issue against the Argies I can see Horwill and Skelton starting to provide enough grunt. Losing lineouts can be bad, but losing tight heads and penalty tries is suicide.

If there is any worry about the scrum Skelton won't be starting, he is far and away the worst scrummaging lock in the wallabies have available. Technique is way more important then size.

 

[barbarian]

I have never understood how people can make assessments on the scrummaging ability of locks. What evidence do you have to go off? Have you scrummed alongside them?
.

 

[Benaud]

All signs seem to point to Fardy moving to the 2nd row with Horwill. Higgers at 6, Skelton on the bench, Carter and Simmons out.

I can't see much alternative with Jones not called up.

 

[Paradox]

OK, time for a few naysayers to get a gentle reality-check.
I know we all get a bit biased, but I was genuinely bemused after watching the game to then read this thread, and some other material, claiming Phipps was average / poor / shithouse and so on. Not a lot, but more than a few.
I wondered if I completely missed what was happening, or if it was a case of some perceptions being somewhere adrift from reality.

So I coded the game today and looked just at Phipps.

What did I code?

Passes and when they occurred - a fast delivery was the ball being passed straight away or as fast as was possible for the ball being trapped in a ruck and not immediately available.

Who he passed to.

Where the pass went - F = front (i.e. on the money), B = behind, L = low, H = high (over head or player had to reach up at all to take)

Error related to the pass

Error in option taken / decision - harder to judge and I'll explain why

Other stuff - kick receives, tackles, missed tackles, ruck assists.

Passes = 94 (48 1st, 46 2nd)
Fast = 82 (87%); Slow = 12 with 7 slow to come, 2 deliberate in last 60 sec of game, 3 where no receivers set to take the ball
Adjusted to Fast = 89 (94.6%) but note 2 deliberately slow (2%), 3 no runners (3%)
Note - 34 passes to Foley = 36%

Accuracy = 87 (43 1st, 44 2nd) = 92.5%
High = 3 (1 dropped, 2 had no impact)
Behind = 2 (1 lost possession, 1 no impact)
Low = 2 (1 cleaned up by Horne, 1 into touch but had advantage)
Adjusted for no impact / under advantage = 91 (96.8%)

Other
Errors = 3 from bad passes, 1 where he passed to an isolated runner (Simmons at 14.52) who actually called for the ball.
He also passed to static runners 3 or 4 times; 1 of these Palu dropped although the pass was fine, 1 To'omua got flat footed but almost put AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) in with the grubber.
Kick receives = 4, includes 1 without clean win but contested and led to turnover for us
Ruck Assist = 3 (held possession x 2, lost x 1)
Tackles = 3
Tackle missed = 1 (Bok try, covering and missed Hendricks 2m from line on cut-back)
Quick tap = 2 - 1 questionable option
Snipe = 1

If any of that makes his game average / poor / shithouse then I just don't understand rugby anymore.
Fast pass rate = 94.6%
Accurate pass rate = 96.8%
Error rate is harder to score but poor passes causing disadvantage / missed tackles / bad decisions = 5% or so of involvements

Have at it, folks.

Kudos for all the work....But what are you comparing this to? I recall seeing at least one poor Phipps pass that result in a lost try opportunity. Surely that represents at least a 20% decrease in overall performance. I think he may have passed that one into the stands/

 

[qwerty51]

I have never understood how people can make assessments on the scrummaging ability of locks. What evidence do you have to go off? Have you scrummed alongside them?
.

Sometimes there's clear evidence, I remember a Crusaders game in 2011 vs Chiefs. Saders scrum was getting smashed all game, Thorn comes on at TH lock and first scrum they smash the Chiefs with no other personnel changes. Continued the dominance throughout the game.

 

[Wilson]

I have never understood how people can make assessments on the scrummaging ability of locks. What evidence do you have to go off? Have you scrummed alongside them?
.

It might not be as simple to judge as work rate or defence, but there has to be a reasonable way to make an assessment without packing down with or against the guy. It's not as though selectors just say "well we weren't in the scrums so will just ignore how they performed there".

Watching the 3rd French test specifically and the Waratahs in general the scrum is often weaker when Skelton is on, weather he starts or comes off the bench. Technique wise, from what I've seen he packs too high and ends up slipping up his prop when pressure comes on. Admittedly I'm no expert but the pattern seems clear enough for me to trust my read on the specifics.

 

[qwerty51]

All signs seem to point to Fardy moving to the 2nd row with Horwill. Higgers at 6, Skelton on the bench, Carter and Simmons out.

I can't see much alternative with Jones not called up.

I've got the feeling this could be the case too.

1. Slipper
2. Hansen
3. Kepu
4. Horwill
5. Fardy
6. Higgers
7. Hooper
8. Palu

16. TPN
17. Cowan
18. Alexander
19. Simmons
20. Skelton

Finish the game with Cowan, TPN, Alexander, Simmons, Skelton, Fardy, Hooper, Higgers

 

[cyclopath]

Kudos for all the work..But what are you comparing this to? I recalling seeing at least one poor Phipps pass that meant a try opportunity was lost.

I'm not comparing it to anything or anyone, I'm just looking at how he went in this game, using some things measurable for a 9, since a few people marked his game as poor etc.........
When was the pass? He threw one that missed all players and went to touch, when we were already under advantage for the Habana "high" tackle. They were forcing the issue a bit with the penalty coming. We had 3 players in short space, but not exactly about to score, so a try not definite.
He threw the one that JdV intercepted standing 2-3m offside where we had 2 players clear, and under advantage again,but I wouldn't blame him not getting the pass over a 6'4" guy in the way!! His other bad passes were a way out from the line.

 

[Paradox]

Sometimes there's clear evidence, I remember a Crusaders game in 2011 vs Chiefs. Saders scrum was getting smashed all game, Thorn comes on at TH lock and first scrum they smash the Chiefs with no other personnel changes. Continued the dominance throughout the game.

Remember the Hugh McMeniman (I think) at lock et al in scrums vs England at Twickenham? I don't believe the locks were even bound to each other.

 

[Paradox]

I'm not comparing it to anything or anyone,

I think you need to in order for us to judge his effort. I know I'm ungrateful...

For the record, I thought was pretty good overall and deserves another crack.

 

[Paradox]

I thought Hooper was average to poor in this match.

 

[cyclopath]

I think you need to in order for us to judge his effort. I know I'm ungrateful.

For the record, I thought was pretty good overall and deserves another crack.

Why? I wasn't saying he was "better" than anyone, I was saying he didn't play badly. The speed of service and its accuracy was not bad, that's all. I don't think another set of data will make 95% and 96.8% suddenly become bad figures, nor necessarily be comparable - different opposition, different conditions etc.
That's all it was.

 

[BDA]

Re the scrums - Slipper seemed to be struggling at the end of the first and in the second. He was clearly suffering from something. They became clear because the scrum regained its composure once Cowan came on.