Australian Schoolboys 2014

[Inside Shoulder]

^^^ Different time periods constraining the samples.
Most of his data sets are 1973 - 2008 but he has 12.5% of schoolboys making Wallaby Caps. My data is 1973 - 2009 and it has 13% and in so far as any statistics* are concerned that is close enough as sh!t is to swearing for this little black duck.

"Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics". B Disraeli.

Yep I see that now.
The conversion rate is going up.
I fear it is because the pathway is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. We did better at senior level when the pathway was unpaved track and everyone slummed it irrespective of schoolboy achievements.
There is no doubt that ASRU selectors are not engaged in predicting the next cohort of wobblies and that the discrepancy is not due to poor selection at that level.
But, and it is a big but, we should not lose sight of the fact that the best kid in a position at 18 may well not be the long term best in that position. hence we need to be sure we keep everyone in the game for as long as possible.

 

[Braveheart81]

Or is the conversion rate going up because technology is making talent identification easier? It's no longer a case where outside of the elite private schools there's a huge black hole of no information.

It would strike me that good video footage of schoolboy games is far more prolific than even 10 years ago. Technology also makes it easier for coaches and selectors to share ideas and point out certain players that are excelling.

As IS says, players develop at different rates and there are many notable situations where a 17 year isn't that great but 5 years later they are in line to play for the Wallabies. The challenge is to make sure those players stay playing rugby until they can fulfil their potential. Given that they are late bloomers to begin with, it's unlikely they'll be lost to other sports due to contract offers not forthcoming in rugby union.

 

[Braveheart81]

I would also wonder whether talent identification at the private schools has also improved meaning that more players end up in the AAGPS or CAS systems through whatever means.

That would then make the schoolboy selectors' jobs easier because more of the best players can be watched on a regular basis and are better known.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

There are some inside those associations you mention that are happy with a more Corinthian approach to talent development than some of the others in their association, and they just do the best that they can with what they are given, and see rugby games as an adjunct to but important part of the education process.

Also there may be one or two Schools in the ISA that would think they do reasonably well in the talent identification and development process, but you are right that the Clipboards are getting more canny about where they should show up and where they shouldn't. You can bet your bottom dollar that not many Clipboards go to the Redlands vs All Saints 1st XV or Homebush BHS vs Epping BHS game on the off chance that there is a rare but unpolished gem at fullback that no other Clipboard has seen before.

On another thread a parent has posted about the indifference that the ARU Clipboards have towards viewing SJRU A Grade age group games. Zero chance for the otherwise A Grade and talented lad who wants to play with their mates at their Junior Village Club that can only scrape together a B or C grade team, and attends St Nigels College of the Anonymous.

My fear is that the heavy lifting in the talent identification and development process has been outsourced to a subset of the rugby playing Private Schools of Sydney and Brisbane.

 

[Lee Grant]

^^^^^^^^
These matters mentioned by Braveheart and HJ are right.

As one has whanged on about before: it is not good that rugby outside of the big rugby schools in Sydney (for example) has marginalised junior rugby outside the system but in the real world it is not going to change.

And to offset this bad situation, we at least get the benefit of locking the boys up in our sport until their U18 year at the rugby school, most often, and giving the best of them top coaching and conditioning during that time.

Assessing them against each other on a regular basis is a plus also.

Sure there are problems with it and I know most of them, but the clipboard guys like it because they can do their work 80/20 - spending 80% of their assessment time on 20% of the schools' matches.

PS - don't ever think that the clipboarders in Sydney don't assess the lads at St. Augustines or Oakhill on a regular basis. I've seen Rapp at their games.
.

 

[Brian Westlake]

I meant what was in the pdf thingy in your post 573.
.

pdf Thingy???
So computer savvy.... Love it Uncle Lee

 

[Inside Shoulder]

PS - don't ever think that the clipboarders in Sydney don't assess the lads at St. Augustines or Oakhill on a regular basis. I've seen Rapp at their games.
.

In the course of his present job or the one he held prior to it?

 

[Brian Westlake]

^^^^^^

Both. You have to keep your eye on your future job as well (and plan the bus route )

 

[Inside Shoulder]

^^^^^^

Both. You have to keep your eye on your future job as well (and plan the bus route )

certainly do in oz rugby - have a look at how many people have been sacked in the Kurtley Beale thread: no wonder we have a 3rd world unemployment rate!

 

[Brian Westlake]

I haven't been game to venture back there yet... Much to some peoples chagrin

 

[Brian Westlake]

Damn You Inside Shoulder... You made me look there didn't you????

HAHA

 

[Lee Grant]

In the course of his present job or the one he held prior to it?

Present i.e. this year.

Manu Sutherland (Aus Schools selector and ARU Under 20s clipboarder) has been at their games also.
.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

^^^^^^^^
<snip>
PS - don't ever think that the clipboarders in Sydney don't assess the lads at St. Augustines or Oakhill on a regular basis. I've seen Rapp at their games.

Both mentioned are quality rugby nurseries within an association that is frequently overlooked by punters obsessed with AAGPS, and the Barker, Knox, Waverley and Trinity performances in CAS.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

In the course of his present job or the one he held prior to it?

Present i.e. this year.
Manu Sutherland (Aus Schools selector and ARU Under 20s clipboarder) has been at their games also.
.

I suspect the question from @IS was somewhat rhetorical in nature, and more related to the propensity of talented kids from some schooling associations to pop up in other associations for senior college.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

I suspect the question from @IS was somewhat rhetorical in nature, and more related to the propensity of talented kids from some schooling associations to pop up in other associations for senior college.

like a book

 

[sarcophilus]

realy rough number on what has been posted So 1 in 8 Aus school boys make it to wallabies on average 3 or 4 per squad of 32 school boy players

though 12/30 wallabies played Aus school boys 40%
18/30 did not play Aus school Boys

According to IRB registration numbers (not the Manly ferry counting technique used by ARU but actual registrations? need to be checked )and I will admit this is from Wikipedia, not direct from IRB. Australia has 87000 registered teenage males playing rugby in 2013

if you were to have all of the remaining positions filled from one age group of boys( I am going to assume a reduced number though combining u17 and u18 would no be unreasonable ) allowing for late teen leakage 6000 players in an age produces 28 or 29 wallaby players

12% Aus school boys get a chance
0,5% a generous registered players proportion get a chance. If you weren't as inclined to take short cuts you may find the second figure would need two decimals to register

if you were taking bets and offering the same odds for a Aus school boy and a non Aus school boy winning the race to gold I would not be putting my money on the Non school boy rep player

A whole range of factors contribute to who wins the race up the mountain. Willingness to compete and enjoyment of that should be first and foremost measure of success. Don't create expectation in either group just create a desire to do the best with what you have.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Sacro, you've made by brain hurt.
All else being equal you have more chance of being a wallaby if you do not play oz schools. Correct?

 

[sarcophilus]

Not the way I see it
I really don't think there is a value in trying to link these as cause and affect as the wording may suggest
Aus school boys is a snap shot of players that can best deliver the coachs/selectors plan in a given year

1 in 8 if you are an Aus School Boy
1 in 200 a generous estimate if you are not
will make it to the Wallabies

of that 1 in 200 are players that

• may have made it but were injured in the 2 month window at the end of a fooball season (from post here that could be anything up to 5 players)
• players that have not fully developed or
• have a skill set or game style that is not required at u19 levels and more useful at seniors
• excluded because of political expediencies

As Discussed School Boys are selected (or not selected) from a small window of not fully developed young men that have not been in total charge of their own destiny or other life pressures
More significant bone, muscle and brain development will be continuing for the next 5-7 years for many of the less then 18 year olds qualifying for any year
athletic ability, co-ordination and attitude does not disappear because someone was or was not selected or because they turn 20

there are so many qualifications for any such study a single 10 second grab is not possible

 

[Brainstrust]

There are of course factors such as many boys do not actually aspire to playing at the top level. Careers etc play a big part. I would suggest that what programs boys are exposed to after school had a bigger influence. Boys that play Australia schools will be chased by clubs with strong development programs, and at least get a look into the ARU ddvrlopme pathway. The boys that don't play Aust schools can also flourish once exposed to s professional development pathway. I think that Aus schools is s good start but it is really all about how bots are developed after school that matters. Background is irrelevant, but how they are developed after school is the key, it's more about that opportunity. It would be interesting to see what after school programs that the super 15 and wallabies are emerging from.

 

[sarcophilus]

"Aus schools is s good start but it is really all about how bots are developed after school that matters"

yes I have heard a leading coach sugest he looks for athletes with large bums and low body fat