COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Braveheart81]

How is a trans-Tasman bubble going to work given the different strategies in NZ and Aus? Shirley the NZ border isn't going to open -- or, at least, the quarantine removed -- until either Australia has a better handle on its situation, or NZ abandons the elimination strategy?

EDIT: Or we might just let Tasmania in, as they seem to be nearing 0 recorded cases too. Hell, we might as well annex the little wee buggers if they're still producing cricketers to Ponting's level.

It will be interesting how they do this.

Certainly the number of community cases in Australia is incredibly low now.

They will presumably do temperature screening at the airports and also ask the regular questions about whether people have had symptoms.

Maybe people going overseas will need to have a COVID-19 test x number of days before their departure to minimise the chance that anyone with it travels?

 

[Aurelius]

This is interesting. Norway's public health chief has claimed that Norway could have controlled the spread just as well without lockdowns as with them, and that the rate of transmission was well on its way down before the lockdowns came into place on March 12. The key quote is here:

‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

 

[Up the Guts]

It will be interesting how they do this.

Certainly the number of community cases in Australia is incredibly low now.

They will presumably do temperature screening at the airports and also ask the regular questions about whether people have had symptoms.

Maybe people going overseas will need to have a COVID-19 test x number of days before their departure to minimise the chance that anyone with it travels?

Won't be any risks taken on the NZ side till the 20th of September.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^ as of today we have eight active cases & no new ones since 22 May. Some researchers from Otago University reckon we could with 95% certainty declare ourselves virus-free around 18 June. That being the case & while Australia's numbers are following a similar trajectory, it's gunna be hard for Jacinda to hold out much last late June, esp with her Deputy calling for Trans-Tasman travel to resume "yesterday".

 

[fatprop]

It will be interesting how they do this.

Certainly the number of community cases in Australia is incredibly low now.

They will presumably do temperature screening at the airports and also ask the regular questions about whether people have had symptoms.

Unless they take a panandol (the advise a doctor gave a mate who was flying home to Singapore last year)

Maybe people going overseas will need to have a COVID-19 test x number of days before their departure to minimise the chance that anyone with it travels?

And if they get it they day before they fly? No symptoms, no fever ............

 

[formerflanker]

No wonder I'm cynical about "the science" behind the lockdown. re the sad death of the young bloke from Emerald, in Central Queensland
Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said it was believed the man had an underlying medical condition.
"He has a complicated medical history and that also needs to be worked through," she said.
"The other thing is we don't know the impact of the other medical issues he had.That will be something for the coroner to look at.
"Whether or not COVID-19 was the precipitating cause for his death, that's how we report it."

 

[fatprop]

I wonder if someone who dies in a car crash, but was covid positive, would it be reported as a covid death

 

[Braveheart81]

And if they get it they day before they fly? No symptoms, no fever ....

There's no perfect solution but testing people before they fly would certainly reduce the risk to almost zero.

We're talking about a scenario where there are already next to no unknown cases in the community to make the Australia/NZ travel bubble an option.

You seem to be taking the position that because no option is perfect we should do none of them.

 

[Up the Guts]

I don’t think Australia-NZ travel is that hard. The problem will be sorting out which, if any countries, a similar non-quarantine arrangement can be made with in the next year or so. Of course, the long run problem is how long do you keep mandatory quarantine for.

 

[Aurelius]

American states that eased their restrictions over three weeks ago have suffered no ill effects, according to the (American) ABC:

JUST IN:
@ABC
looked at 21 states that eased restrictions May 4 or earlier & found no major increase in hospitalizations, deaths or % of people testing positive in any of them. [SC, MT, GA, MS, SD, AR, CO, ID, IA, ND, OK, TN, TX, UT, WY, KS, FL, IN, MO, NE, OH] via
@AMitrops

It seems we're starting to catch up in WA. From Saturday week, pubs will be allowed to reopen and restaurants can serve up to 100 customers at a time, with the 4 square metre rule being replaced by a 2 square metre one.

When will Victoria get with the programme? Apparently Dan Andrews is threatening to fine businesses if their employees aren't working from home.

 

[Aurelius]

This is brilliant. A resident of Illinois sued the government there over their restrictions and won. Here's a taste of the judge's summation which just beautifully sums up some of the official insanity we've seen right around the world:

Since the inception of this insanity, the following regulations, rules or consequences have occurred: I won't get COVID if I get an abortion but I will get COVID if I get a colonoscopy. Selling pot is essential but selling goods and services at a family-owned business is not. Pot wasn't even legal and pot dispensaries didn't even exist in this state until five months ago and, in that five months, they have become essential but a family-owned business in existence for five generations is not.
A family of six can pile in their car and drive to Carlyle Lake without contracting COVID but, if they all get in the same boat, they will. We are told that kids rarely contract the virus and sunlight kills it, but summer youth programs, sports programs are cancelled. Four people can drive to the golf course and not get COVID but, if they play in a foursome, they will. If I go to Walmart, I won't get COVID but, if I go to church, I will. Murderers are released from custody while small business owners are threatened with arrest if they have the audacity to attempt to feed their families...

More here:

https://www.steynonline.com/10317/the-supreme-ayatollahs-of-expertistan

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

On a slightly more uplifting note:

"Coronavirus: 103 year old US woman beats Covid-19, celebrates with beer"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/...d-us-woman-beats-covid19-celebrates-with-beer

Onya, Jennie!

 

[Kenny Powers]

I don’t think Australia-NZ travel is that hard.

Imagine a COVID19 case is imported to NZ from Australia. We will never hear the end of it from Kiwis, the only good thing that could come from it is that it would replace the underarm bowling incident in the Kiwi psyche (and maybe Wayne Barnes too!)

 

[Ignoto]

American states that eased their restrictions over three weeks ago have suffered no ill effects, according to the (American) ABC:

Couple of things, just as an example, here's a breakdown of GA or Georgia.

Reported cases and deaths have stayed the same over the last two months. Interestingly, in the past 24 hours they did 4,800 tests and also 523,359 tests since the start of March.

The state of Georgia is 10.6 million people.

By way of comparison, Australia as a nation completed almost 33,000 tests on the 25th of May with the lowest amount of tests in the last week on the 22nd at 26,000.

I'll let you work out the % difference if you want. But napkin math would suggest that the 'no ill effects' is down to head in the sand stuff.

 

[Up the Guts]

^^
Georgia’s tests per million are not much lower than Australia’s:

https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/australia-and-the-united-states-by-the-numbers

 

[Braveheart81]

^^
Georgia’s tests per million are not much lower than Australia’s:

https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/australia-and-the-united-states-by-the-numbers

And they're averaging around 700 new cases and 30 deaths a day.

It's becoming pretty clear that if you've allowed a serious outbreak of COVID-19 that lockdowns or no lockdowns don't make a helluva lot of difference to what happens next.

I'm not really sure what the lesson here is.

 

[Up the Guts]

And they're averaging around 700 new cases and 30 deaths a day.

It's becoming pretty clear that if you've allowed a serious outbreak of COVID-19 that lockdowns or no lockdowns don't make a helluva lot of difference to what happens next.

I'm not really sure what the lesson here is.

Well the original contention was that Georgia were testing a much lower % than Aus, not exactly true. As for the lesson, seems pretty clear in this crisis that countries that did not have too many imported cases before shutting the borders were able to suppress the spread. The extent of the spread before shutting the borders has more to do with geography than regulatory actions by government.

 

[Ignoto]

Well the original contention was that Georgia were testing a much lower % than Aus, not exactly true. As for the lesson, seems pretty clear in this crisis that countries that did not have too many imported cases before shutting the borders were able to suppress the spread. The extent of the spread before shutting the borders has more to do with geography than regulatory actions by government.

You can make an argument that Australia's testing per 100k has dropped significantly because we've been doing a good job isolating which in turn, means no-one is getting flu like symptoms and thus no-one is going out for tests.

 

[Aurelius]

You can make an argument that Australia's testing per 100k has dropped significantly because we've been doing a good job isolating which in turn, means no-one is getting flu like symptoms and thus no-one is going out for tests.

Couldn't the same be true for places such as Georgia? That fewer people are showing symptoms, therefore fewer people are getting tested?

 

[Up the Guts]

You can make an argument that Australia's testing per 100k has dropped significantly because we've been doing a good job isolating which in turn, means no-one is getting flu like symptoms and thus no-one is going out for tests.

Well, your original claim was Georgia wasn’t testing in comparable rates to Australia. Nevertheless this second argument is tough to make when daily testing has increased: