• Welcome to the Green and Gold Rugby forums. As you can see we've upgraded the forums to new software. Your old logon details should work, just click the 'Login' button in the top right.

COVID-19 Stuff Here

fatprop

fatprop

George Gregan (70)
Staff member
The_Brown_Hornet said:
Yeah Ferguson appears to be a professional wrongologist. His track record of prediction has been so poor over a long period of time that it's a wonder anybody still listens to him. That and the fact that he was breaking isolation by knocking off a lady on the side reflects rather badly on him I'd say.
Click to expand...


It appears in that modelling world being wrong high never is a problem in retrospect. The most pessimistic wins the attention

But I would love to see someone ask Morrison if they would have shut down the country if the predictions were 5 times worse (ie 500 deaths) or even 1,000 deaths because we always factor in risk to every government decision, like it or not
 
Up the Guts

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
From the Herald:

“A Melbourne protestor has tested positive and was likely infectious at the protest.”

This could get interesting.
 
The_Brown_Hornet

The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
fatprop said:
It appears in that modelling world being wrong high never is a problem in retrospect. The most pessimistic wins the attention

But I would love to see someone ask Morrison if they would have shut down the country if the predictions were 5 times worse (ie 500 deaths) or even 1,000 deaths because we always factor in risk to every government decision, like it or not
Click to expand...


Economic forecasting is no different. When things start to turn south, there is usually a cavalcade of "smartest people in the room" who fall over themselves to predict the worst possible outcome. Funny how nobody hears from them or frankly even follows up with them when things don't turn out like they said they would.
 
Up the Guts

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
The_Brown_Hornet said:
Economic forecasting is no different. When things start to turn south, there is usually a cavalcade of "smartest people in the room" who fall over themselves to predict the worst possible outcome. Funny how nobody hears from them or frankly even follows up with them when things don't turn out like they said they would.
Click to expand...
Maybe this is true in general public discussions but certainly at investment banks there are no gains to be made from forecasting overly pessimistic outcomes. If a bank's opinion is the market is too bearish (say jobs numbers aren't as bad as the market predicts), the trading desks will take on more bullish trades to gain from the expected bounce when more positive numbers hit.
 
The_Brown_Hornet

The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
Up the Guts said:
Maybe this is true in general public discussions but certainly at investment banks there are no gains to be made from forecasting overly pessimistic outcomes. If a bank's opinion is the market is too bearish (say jobs numbers aren't as bad as the market predicts), the trading desks will take on more bullish trades to gain from the expected bounce when more positive numbers hit.
Click to expand...


Even if the traders are taking short positions?
 
boyo

boyo

Mark Ella (57)
fatprop said:
Why would you trust this guy's modelling? (unless it suits your political position)

He has been badly wrong at every stage, everytime he has been "trusted"





https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/...its-time-to-permanently-dump-epidemic-models/




https://www.theguardian.com/comment...coronavirus-world-scientists-optimism-experts
Click to expand...

If you don't like that, try this (including the pdf):-

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7
 
Up the Guts

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
The_Brown_Hornet said:
Even if the traders are taking short positions?
Click to expand...
Yep, if you move into short positions based on dire predictions and those predictions don’t come true you’re not making money from the short trades. If it was true that the market always overestimated the extent of an economic fallout then contrarian strategies would be profitable, which they aren’t.

Pandemic forecasting seems to be a rare field where there is no strong disincentive not to make extremely risk averse predictions and policy recommendations.
 
Kenny Powers

Kenny Powers

Ron Walden (29)
Up the Guts said:
Pandemic forecasting seems to be a rare field where there is no strong disincentive not to make extremely risk averse predictions and policy recommendations.
Click to expand...

Where does that put climate change modelling?

A fair few merchant bankers are trying to turn a dollar out of that with rent seeking schemes / scans in the energy field. The ones I know worship of the dollar is greater than their belief based on the big engine cars they drive, energy guzzling houses they live in and expensive overseas holiday flights (pre covid).
 
Lindommer

Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
Staff member
America now has 118,815 deaths, hurtling towards 120k dead; deafening silence from the orange idiot. I quite realise few politicians are perfect (maybe none) but our lot in Australia and New Zealand have performed bloody well in this difficult time.

Brazil has just overtaken Britain for the second spot, another idiot in charge.
 
The_Brown_Hornet

The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
formerflanker

formerflanker

Ken Catchpole (46)
Lindommer said:
America now has 118,815 deaths, hurtling towards 120k dead; deafening silence from the orange idiot. I quite realise few politicians are perfect (maybe none) but our lot in Australia and New Zealand have performed bloody well in this difficult time.

Brazil has just overtaken Britain for the second spot, another idiot in charge.
Click to expand...
I would imagine the politicians facing most of the wrath of Americans will be the Democrats who sent Covid19 hospital patients to nursing homes.
Deliberately placing increased risk on the shoulders of the most vulnerable is beyond reprehensible.
Cuomo is responsible for approx 4,000 deaths in New York alone.
At least President Trump, contrary to your "stupid" claim, restricted flights from China in January in brave opposition to WHO advice.
"Our lot" had the huge advantage of a bloody great moat.
 
I like to watch

I like to watch

David Codey (61)
The fact that Cuomo made some poor decisions that clearly cost lives, has absolutely no bearing on Trumps performance in dealing with the pandemic.

stupid isn’t nearly strong enough to describe his incompetence.

Describing him as “brave” pretty confirms you have such a bias that you can’t accept the facts.

its a disturbing characteristic of the politics over there, and bizarre.
 
waiopehu oldboy

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
21/50 US States are seeing an increase in cases & deaths. Cuomo's NY isn't one of them but several of those that lifted stay-at-home orders etc at Trump's behest (& before meeting CDC's criteria for doing so) are.

IMG_0999.PNG
 
waiopehu oldboy

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Yet to be peer-reviewed but there's a study out based on Chinese medical, media and bureaucratic reports that concludes the outbreak may have started as early as October & as its peak been at least ten times more prevalent/ fatal than China claims.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12339675

As others have previously noted on here China's response to the outbreak e.g. the pop-up hospitals & influx of medics into Wuhan in particular always seemed out of proportion to the official numbers so I'd expect this study to pass peer review. That still doesn't excuse the failure of some countries to act early enough and/ or strongly enough.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top