Obviously no one outside of France really has a hope in hell, going on budgets and playing staff but, Ulster and Munster have both shown a bit of form even if Leinster are complete toilet under Matt O'Connor. So, this weekend my predictions/ hopes as to the winners in the Heineken cup (lite) are Quins, Munster, Glasgow, Clermont(hopefully), Racing Metro, Ulster, Ospreys, Toulouse, Toulon and Leinster.
So much depends on which French sides show up. If Quins can limit the handling errors, they may be able to get their offload game going, and that's when they're dangerous. When they don't and they don't, they're not. But Castres are near the bottom of the Top 14 table, so you have to wonder if they're going limit their focus on the league, or if they'll decide to prove they can still play by opening up in the I Can't Believe It's Not the Heineken Cup.
I haven't watched enough Sale this year to know where their strengths are, but I'm sure Munster would be more than happy to punch the ball up with the forwards and only pop it out wide if there's plenty of overlap.
And that's probably what Leicester will want to do to Ulster, but Ulster have enough dangerous players and can play at a fast enough pace that they can make it uncomfortable for Leicester. Cockerill's team will be flying a bit high after whomping Quins, but that's one complete game they've put together, and their confidence will still be brittle -- a couple of surprise plays, especially if Trimble or Bowe pick off some more passes -- could make Leicester shell up. Plus Ulster will be feeling strong after putting 29 on Glasgow.
And Glasgow will hurting after losing to Ulster by 20, and will be out to prove a point. They've shown a few times this year that they can either play like Leinster from a few years ago, or they can lose their heads for a few minutes and let it slip away from them. Bath have been more than competent this season, have a decent pack, and a not-half-bad midfield. Glasgow will have to be sharp if they want to take that fixture. If they can get their game flowing, they can take it, but if it gets sloggy, I'd bet Bath take it by a score.
Many of Clermont's wins have been fairly close, and they've been blown out a couple times this year. Saracens on their own plastic pitch may be more than they're ready for; Clermont may have to way for their home fixture in the sixth round to take one from Saracens.
Racing and Northampton could be close. That could be the armwrestle of the round.
Ospreys already rolled Treviso, and so has everyone else.
If the Toulouse that played Toulon shows up against Montpellier, that could be a cracker of a match. If the Toulouse that has played most of their games this season shows up, I'll enjoy watching Rene Ranger. (I'll enjoy watching Rene Ranger either way.)
As for Toulon and Scarlets, it's probably less a question of who takes it and more a question of the spread.
Until they find some form, Leinster's best hope is to catch a Wasps team in disarray after the furore over their move to Coventry. Wasps' pack has been impressive, especially their back row, and Leinster's is injured. Wasps have won some big games, beat Northampton and Bath and had a couple close losses to Saracens and Quins, but they also lost to Sale. Wasps feel more like a settled team, while Matt O'Connor seems like he's still trying to figure out what his best team set-up is, and the injuries don't help matters. Madigan at 12 and Gopperth at 10? Madigan at 10 and Reid at 12? Who'll be their big ball carriers and breakdown artists? Let's just say it's a chance for players like Rhys Ruddock and Jack McGrath to make their names known to the rest of Europe. But unless Leinster start concentrating and limiting handling errors, coordinating their breakdown work better and clicking as a team, I hate to say it's Wasps' game to lose.
So for me, it's Quins as long as they can keep their hands on the ball; Munster if they play within themselves; Saracens at home; Bath by a try; I'll go RM 92 at home, but it'll be close; Ulster if they can get on top early; Ospreys; Montpellier; Toulon; and Wasps in what'll be a frustrating game to watch.
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Challenge Cup: Gloucester; Newcastle; Bordeaux-Begles; Lyon; Grenoble; Zebre (! -- they're not great, but neither are Oyonnax, and Zebre are niggly at home); Connacht (and just wait till their marquee signings show up, but until then, Connacht are giving the marquee players something to live up to); Exeter; Stade Francais; London Irish.
