H
hatchie
Guest
1 Sharks
2 Chiefs
3 Force
4 Brumbies
2 Chiefs
3 Force
4 Brumbies
S14 Predictions
- Thread starter barbarian
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Scarfman
Knitter of the Scarf
Each of the Aussie teams has a big issue. In the end I don't see any compelling reason to change last year's order.
Tahs - failed to replace talent, new coach, can't see them doing as well as last year
Force - coach / staff / player issues. On the other hand, teams sometimes do very well under these circs. I expect them to be very competitive.
Brumbies - I like what "Friendy" is saying, but I'm very surprised at his choice of captain. Maybe he knows something I don't, but this decision is a minus mark for me.
Reds - they usually suck. However, I like the sounds I'm hearing out of Mooney's mouth. But on the other hand, they've lost as much talent as the Tahs and they're starting from 12th place. Mid-table at very best.
Tahs - failed to replace talent, new coach, can't see them doing as well as last year
Force - coach / staff / player issues. On the other hand, teams sometimes do very well under these circs. I expect them to be very competitive.
Brumbies - I like what "Friendy" is saying, but I'm very surprised at his choice of captain. Maybe he knows something I don't, but this decision is a minus mark for me.
Reds - they usually suck. However, I like the sounds I'm hearing out of Mooney's mouth. But on the other hand, they've lost as much talent as the Tahs and they're starting from 12th place. Mid-table at very best.
Ash
Michael Lynagh (62)
Hmmm, I see a slightly different order to Scarfy, but I think any Aus side will struggle to make the semis. Total to give my asshole - er, opinion...
1. Tahs (5th) - weak tight 5 depth as has been said many times, and bit lacking of height at the lineout. No replacement of talent. That backrow for the first game really does not inspire any confidence. Despite all that they should have an improvement in the backs. To finish just outside the 4 but just ahead of the...
2. Brumbies (6th) - Friend made a lot of the right noises, but then picks such a curious looking first team and Hoiles as captain. Hope he proves that he knows more than us. Big problem for the Brumbies is still inexperience in key areas, especially the halves.
3. Force (8th/9th) - to finish a few positions below the Brumbies, languishing in mid-table mediocrity. Brilliant backline and back row let down by a pussycat tight 5 and woeful set peices, and constant struggle to overcome controversy. But they still finish above the...
4. Reds (11th/12th) - ah, the poor Reds. No more Latham, Moore and Croft, the three losses that really hurt. At least they replaced Croft, the others were practically irreplacable. Plus Horwill being out for half the season, plus the usual big injury toll - just earlier this year. They will finish higher than the Lions and Cheetahs, and will fight it out for 11th with the Highlanders.
My finalists, in no particular order:
Crusaders
Hurricanes
Sharks
Stormers
I lie. That's alphabetical order.
Blues to struggle this year, no real 1st five and they already have too many key injuries - down to about 7th.
Chiefs (weak tight 5) and Bulls (watch for a Morne Steyn brain dead kicking game) will languish towards the bottom of the table, just above the Highlanders and Reds.
Of course, I bet I will be totally wrong now and it'll be a Lions / Cheetahs final...
1. Tahs (5th) - weak tight 5 depth as has been said many times, and bit lacking of height at the lineout. No replacement of talent. That backrow for the first game really does not inspire any confidence. Despite all that they should have an improvement in the backs. To finish just outside the 4 but just ahead of the...
2. Brumbies (6th) - Friend made a lot of the right noises, but then picks such a curious looking first team and Hoiles as captain. Hope he proves that he knows more than us. Big problem for the Brumbies is still inexperience in key areas, especially the halves.
3. Force (8th/9th) - to finish a few positions below the Brumbies, languishing in mid-table mediocrity. Brilliant backline and back row let down by a pussycat tight 5 and woeful set peices, and constant struggle to overcome controversy. But they still finish above the...
4. Reds (11th/12th) - ah, the poor Reds. No more Latham, Moore and Croft, the three losses that really hurt. At least they replaced Croft, the others were practically irreplacable. Plus Horwill being out for half the season, plus the usual big injury toll - just earlier this year. They will finish higher than the Lions and Cheetahs, and will fight it out for 11th with the Highlanders.
My finalists, in no particular order:
Crusaders
Hurricanes
Sharks
Stormers
I lie. That's alphabetical order.
Blues to struggle this year, no real 1st five and they already have too many key injuries - down to about 7th.
Chiefs (weak tight 5) and Bulls (watch for a Morne Steyn brain dead kicking game) will languish towards the bottom of the table, just above the Highlanders and Reds.
Of course, I bet I will be totally wrong now and it'll be a Lions / Cheetahs final...
Scarfman
Knitter of the Scarf
More importantly, which teams can do we want to put money on?
I'm the Stormers for the S14 Win @ 13.00
and the Force for the Finals @ 7.00
In other words, I think the chances of the first happening are greater than 8% and the second greater than 14%.
I have also bet the following:
- The Sharks to finish higher than the Blues (evens)
- The Waratahs to finish higher than the Chiefs (evens)
I note that Centrebet have three new bet types: Kickit Kurtley (will he kick at better than 65.5%) and Try-Qiri (will Lote score 3 tries in a game). The odds on Lote are 10-1 :lmao: Finally, I've taken a few dollars for fun on Francois Steyne kicking a field goal from the 50m or further during the regular season (@ 4.85). I like those odds.
I'm the Stormers for the S14 Win @ 13.00
and the Force for the Finals @ 7.00
In other words, I think the chances of the first happening are greater than 8% and the second greater than 14%.
I have also bet the following:
- The Sharks to finish higher than the Blues (evens)
- The Waratahs to finish higher than the Chiefs (evens)
I note that Centrebet have three new bet types: Kickit Kurtley (will he kick at better than 65.5%) and Try-Qiri (will Lote score 3 tries in a game). The odds on Lote are 10-1 :lmao: Finally, I've taken a few dollars for fun on Francois Steyne kicking a field goal from the 50m or further during the regular season (@ 4.85). I like those odds.
My guesses, with only a little bit of provincial bias (Scarfy said it was OK, but I accept he is one of us)
Tahs
I think the Tahs will suffer at least 1 front row injury and will be cruelly exposed. I think they'll compete well, but struggle to make the semis. 4-6 position.
Ponies
Will surprise more than 1 team, and if some cohesion develops with inside backs, may be the goods. Think they might just pip the Tahs. I hope Friend can get Holmes to realise some of his potential at 9 - we need competition there. Again 4-6
Quokka-Chukkas
As others have pointed out, forward depth especially at front row will be their undoing, not to mention the problems that will inevitably arise when large player egos further marginalise Mitchell. There is some talent there, but they could descend into a rabble. 6-8
Banjo-Pickers
I really, really want the Reds to do well. No, that is not sarcasm, 'tis the truth. Except against the Tahs. But I suspect they won't. Their backs could be a handful, if the pack can compete at set piece, which it probably won't. 9-12.
Of course, I would love to be wrong and see them finish 1-4 in the above order.
Tahs
I think the Tahs will suffer at least 1 front row injury and will be cruelly exposed. I think they'll compete well, but struggle to make the semis. 4-6 position.
Ponies
Will surprise more than 1 team, and if some cohesion develops with inside backs, may be the goods. Think they might just pip the Tahs. I hope Friend can get Holmes to realise some of his potential at 9 - we need competition there. Again 4-6
Quokka-Chukkas
As others have pointed out, forward depth especially at front row will be their undoing, not to mention the problems that will inevitably arise when large player egos further marginalise Mitchell. There is some talent there, but they could descend into a rabble. 6-8
Banjo-Pickers
I really, really want the Reds to do well. No, that is not sarcasm, 'tis the truth. Except against the Tahs. But I suspect they won't. Their backs could be a handful, if the pack can compete at set piece, which it probably won't. 9-12.
Of course, I would love to be wrong and see them finish 1-4 in the above order.
Ash
Michael Lynagh (62)
Scarfman said:
I should create a betting account one of these days for the hell of it...and here I go showing my lack of knowledge. Is there much difference between the different ones? Does Centrebet have betting on everything, e.g. Kurtley hitting the post with a kick in a game?
Some of those bets are really interesting...good luck Scarfy :thumb
TSF had a thread last year where every week people would post there multi-bets. Had some interesting bets in there.
R
rugbywhisperer
Guest
top 5rugbywhisperer said:
AFter the first round some very clear trends appeared
- not necessarily in final order
Crusaders
Waratahs
Stormers
Sharks
Hurricanes
rugbywhisperer said:
We've now had four rounds and I have a sneaking suspicion the current top 4 may be it. So:
Bulls
Tahs
Sharks
Canes
Although I'm waiting for the lack of depth in the Tahs' tight 5 to bite them on the arse.
The bottom 4:
Reds
Clan
Lions
Cheetahs
P
PhucNgo
Guest
I'm thinking that the Tahs will porbably fall off in the back half of the competition and come back into the pack. Too early to get carried away with wins only (no disrespect intended) over the likes of Highlanders, Chiefs and Reds.
R
Rugby Rat
Guest
Stormers are the worse than the Force.
Tahs should hold their ground.
Tahs should hold their ground.
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