Super Rugby 2019 Predictions - Aussie Conference

[Derpus]

Is there a realistic chance the tahs will just say fuck you and play them all? At the end of the day it’s only a handshake agreement isn’t it?

It would be very irritating if they did.

 

[Slim 293]

There would appear to be a number of top Wallabies who have not had their second rest week...........

It would probably make sense to ditch them with only a few rounds left, otherwise there's going to be tears.

 

[Silverado]

Is there a realistic chance the tahs will just say fuck you and play them all? At the end of the day it’s only a handshake agreement isn’t it?

No, but I bet they're regretting leaving it so late when every game is so vital now. I agree with Derpus to target the Highlanders game. The Rebs and Brumbies are must win games to top the conference and have any chance of playing finals.They might not even be in the mix by then.

 

[Rebelsfan]

Brumbies now on 39 points with two games to go. next game, if Brumbies d Tahs they go to 43 points; last game, surely Brumbies d Reds, now at 47 points, definitely make it into the finals.
Rebels on 34 points: Rebels will not (imo) d Crusaders; last game, surely no chance defeating Chiefs who just slaughtered the Crusaders, so remain at 34 points.
Tahs 30 points. next game, if Tahs d Brumbies, Tahs go to 34 points; last game, surely no chance defeating Highlanders, remain at 34 points. Rebels lead on PD so make it into the top 8! Tahs say good bye to 2019.

 

[Derpus]

Brumbies now on 39 points with two games to go. next game, if Brumbies d Tahs they go to 43 points; last game, surely Brumbies d Reds, now at 47 points, definitely make it into the finals.
Rebels on 34 points: Rebels will not (imo) d Crusaders; last game, surely no chance defeating Chiefs who just slaughtered the Crusaders, so remain at 34 points.
Tahs 30 points. next game, if Tahs d Brumbies, Tahs go to 34 points; last game, surely no chance defeating Highlanders, remain at 34 points. Rebels lead on PD so make it into the top 8! Tahs say good bye to 2019.

^^^
Except the Safa teams will knock you out.

 

[KOB1987]

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that all 3 teams make it. I won’t be having a huge wager on it but it’s certainly possible

 

[Strewthcobber]

Yeah, looks as though the Bulls or Lions, and Sharks or Stormers will make it (winner of each of those games)

So 2 Saffas + Jags, 2 kiwis, 1 Aussie (almost certainly Brumbies) definitely to finals.

Chiefs, Wolves and Reds are out.

So that leaves Rebels, Tahs, Highlanders and Blues fighting for 2 spots. Rebels need 1 win, the other three need to win 2/2. And Blues need other results

With lots of other results, winnner of Tahs v Highlanders probably makes it (if Tahs beat Brumbies as well)

 

[Rebels3]

Coming into the last week i believe it will be 8 teams vying for 4 remaining spots.

It also happens that those 8 teams play each other.

Highlanders v Waratahs
Rebels v Chiefs
Stormers v Sharks
Bulls v Lions

Lions are the only team that can qualify with results going their way this weekend.

So basically if you win the last week, good chance you will qualify.

 

[Brumby Runner]

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that all 3 teams make it. I won’t be having a huge wager on it but it’s certainly possible

Would mean both the Tahs and Reds have to beat the Brumbies. If that happens, no need for any Aus teams in the finals at all.

I am thinking the Chiefs might sneak into the finals at the expense of one of the Saffa teams and probably the second Aus team.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^ first they'd need to beat Rebs: with a BP they finish with 36 points. Plenty of teams with two games left who could overtake them, including Clan & Loss Bleus from NZ & all four from SA. Of those I reckon Clan have the slightly better draw.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Have to admit I overlooked the bye this week for the Chiefs. Will make it extremely difficult for them.

Highlanders fate lies in this week's game v the Bulls. Win that and they will be a big chance to make the finals with their last match against the Rebels. Would also place pressure on the Bulls as they play the Lions in the last round.

Sharks have probably the hardest run in with the Hurricanes at home and the Jaguares away.

Stormers well placed with home games against the Sunwolves and the Sharks to come.

Still a lot to unfold, but I expect 3 NZ sides will make it.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^ should've mentioned that Clan are starting from further back than most but IF three NZ teams make it I believe they'll be the third. Still wouldn't bet against three SA teams (plus Jags, obviously), making it but.

 

[KOB1987]

Would mean both the Tahs and Reds have to beat the Brumbies. If that happens, no need for any Aus teams in the finals at all.

I am thinking the Chiefs might sneak into the finals at the expense of one of the Saffa teams and probably the second Aus team.

Don’t know how you work that out. Yes the Tahs would have to beat the Brumbies and the Highlanders but the Reds v Brumbies game will be of no consequence. If the Rebels also win one of their games then depending on other results both the Tahs and Rebels can sneak in. Like I said I’m not backing it to happen but it could.

 

[Rebels3]

We also need to remember it’s not a simple win 2 make it through for x, y, z. All the teams in competition for spots are playing each other in most games. There is still a mathematical chance (and a very slim one) the Rebels could make it without collecting a point. But that’d require an extreme set of results such as the Sunwolves beating the Stormers and depriving them of a bonus point.

 

[Derpus]

Got me blue tinted glasses on but i think the Tahs will finish first. I doubt they'll rest all the Wallabies at the same time, so if it's well managed it shouldnt be as deleterious as some have suggested.

Rebels have had many seasons with a theoretically great team and it never eventuates. Their front row was absolutely atrocious last year, regularly cost them games and they haven't fixed it.

Havent seen anything from the Reds to suggest they'll be any better than last season either, other than the shipping out of some dross. They are almost the inverse to the Rebels. Crack front row but Stewart and Hegarty as your key playmakers leaves a bit to be desired.

Brumbies lost Naisarani but have a fit (hopefully) Valetini and have signed Samu. The rest of the team really came good at the end of last season and should kick on. Brumbies and Tahs competing for top spot. They have better depth than the Rebels as well, in my opinion.

Not as bad as i first thought, and i even prefaced my prediction that the Tahs would finish top by acknowledging it as provincial bias.

 

[Jimmy_Crouch]

Have to admit I overlooked the bye this week for the Chiefs. Will make it extremely difficult for them.

Highlanders fate lies in this week's game v the Bulls. Win that and they will be a big chance to make the finals with their last match against the Rebels. Would also place pressure on the Bulls as they play the Lions in the last round.

Sharks have probably the hardest run in with the Hurricanes at home and the Jaguares away.

Stormers well placed with home games against the Sunwolves and the Sharks to come.

Still a lot to unfold, but I expect 3 NZ sides will make it.

Its cold and raining tonight in Invercargill. Pollard is back for the Bulls. I fancy an away win.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^ lucky they're playing in Dunners then, eh

'tahs get to sample deep-Southern hospitality next week.

 

[KOB1987]

^ lucky they're playing in Dunners then, eh

'tahs get to sample deep-Southern hospitality next week.

whilst resting 6 players

 

[Rebelsfan]

Brumbies def of Tahs keeps Brumbies in first position in Aussie ranking, on 43 points with one more game against Reds, surely this is another 4 points for them, so will finish on 47 points and top the Aussie rankings.
Rebels loss to Crusaders not unexpected, next week expect another defeat, so stay on 34 points. Currently 7th in ranking. But they play Chiefs who are on 31 points now, so they would move up the rankings to 35 and Rebels would move down the rankings to 8th.
Tahs defeat this week hurt them, they are on 30 points - even a win next week would only move them to 34 points, possibly nudging out Rebels, depending on the pd. Can Tahs defeat Highlanders? It is possible, but not in Dunnedin, in which case, Highlanders move to 35 points and knock out Rebels.
And I haven't really looked at the SA impacts. Sharks v Stormers, if Sharks win, then they knock out the 2nd Aussie team, if Stormers win, status quo remains the same.
To stay alive, Rebels need to win and they need Tahs to win but not by much.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^ Clan v 'tahs is in Invercargill not Dunners. Likely to be cold and/ or wet and/ or windy depending on when the next storm rolls up from Antarctica.