The road home - Super rugby 2014

[Brumby Runner]

So in the end, my table looks like this:

Sharks 51
Brumbies 49
Crusaders 46
Hurricanes 45
Chiefs 45
Highlanders 44
Waratahs 44
Force 43
Blues 39
Bulls 39

I think it is between those 10. Pressed for a call, I'd say Sharks and Brumbies for top 2, Blues and Bulls to miss out. Very little between the Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Highlanders, Waratahs and Force for a place in the qualifiers.

I like your analysis, but I cannot see 4 NZ teams making the top 6 in any circumstances. Therefore, I expect either the Tahs or Force to make the 6 with a slight leaning towards the Force given their more favourable run home. That would be a remarkable outcome for the Westerners.

 

[Benaud]

Yeah I should clarify that. Of those 6 fighting for 4 spots, I expect 3 New Zealand teams and 1 Aussie team. One of the Kiwi teams could easily finish top 2 as well. They are clumped like that because I didn't know which ones would emerge so averaged them all out. The more likely scenario is that 1 or 2 will be clear of the rest - it's just a matter of finding which ones!

 

[Lindommer]

Version 1.1.

11 rounds gone, 8 to go. Table and future fixtures:

Sharks (31 points/played 9) Rebels, Ponies, Saders, Blues, Stormers, Cheetahs, Stormers
Brumbies (30/9) Saders, Sharks, Cheetahs, Bulls, Rebels, Tahs, bye, Force
Western Force (27/9) bye, Cheetahs, Stormers, Lions, Saders, Blues, Reds, Ponies
Hurricanes (26/9) Tahs, Rebels, Clan, Chiefs, Blues, Saders, Chiefs, bye
Chiefs (25/9) Lions, Blues, bye, Canes, Tahs, Clan, Canes, Blues
Waratahs (24/9) Canes, bye, Lions, Rebels, Chiefs, Ponies, Clan, Reds
Highlanders (24/8) Stormers, Lions, Canes, Saders, Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Saders
Crusaders (22/8) Ponies, Reds, Sharks, Clan, Force, Canes, Blues, Clan
Blues (20/9) Reds, Chiefs, bye, Sharks, Canes, Force, Saders, Chiefs
Bulls (19/10) Cheetahs, Stormers, bye, Ponies, Lions, Stormers, Rebels
Lions (16/9) Chiefs, Clan, Tahs, Force, Bulls, Rebels, Cheetahs
Rebels (16/8) Sharks, Canes, Reds, Tahs, Ponies, Reds, Lions, Bulls
Reds (16/9) Blues, Saders, Rebels, bye, Clan, Rebels, Force, Tahs

I won't go into great detail for the first review of my earlier piece.

The salient points are:

At this stage it's probably more accurate to list the Force on 27 points as third, rather than the leading NZ side, the Canes on 26. The competition rules state the three conference winners must be ranked 1/2/3 for the sake of scheduling the finals, so it's best to wait until we see who the conference winners are.

The Lions, Rebels and Reds are now effectively out of the finals race. I doubt if miracles could see any of them jumping five places in the run home.

The wins by the Canes, Clan and Blues have propelled NZ sides up the ladder to sit in positions 4/5/7/8/9 with points ranging from 26 to 20; the poor old Tahs are surrounded by the eastern hordes! A careful examination of remaining fixtures show there are 11 intra-NZ matches to play which will result in some of those teams not rushing up as they have this week. Conversely, there are 8 intra-Oz and 9 intra-SAf matches left. If the two Rebels/Reds and the one Cheetahs/Stormers matches are ignored (they'll have no bearing on the finals) there are effectively 6 "live" intra-Oz matches to go compared to 8 Saffer and 11 Kiwi. The top Kiwi spot's going to be a bunfight with only the Blues seemingly out of it. It's possible the other four NZ sides could all be on 26 points come next Sunday night, highly unlikely, I know, but mathematically possible.

The Australian conference has two (relatively) weak sides which SHOULD result in losses to most of their higher-ranked opponents.

The relative positions in the Saffer conference are more interesting. The Sharks are a monte to finish in the top four, probably the top two. The Bulls are the only finals contender who've played 10 matches, they have a mere six matches left to garner points. In their favour four of them are against the weaker Saffer sides, but it's difficult to see them gaining enough points to make the finals, especially when they have to advance over the Saders and the Clan who both have two games in hand over them. I reckon only one Saffer side will feature in the 2014 finals leaving the Sharks with a wonderful opportunity to play all their finals matches at home.

The Sharks, Force and Clan have the worst of the travel over the remaining rounds.

The surprise packet of 2014, the Force, continue to surprise. Well done, Force. Wouldn't it be great for Oz rugby if they made the finals? AND it was in Perth!

 

[D-Box]

So long as they play it at NIB

Sent from my HTC_PN071 using Tapatalk

 

[Lindommer]

Version 1.2.

12 rounds gone, 7 to go. Table and future fixtures:

Sharks (35 points/played 10) Ponies, Saders, Blues, Stormers, Cheetahs, Stormers
Brumbies (30/10) Sharks, Cheetahs, Bulls, Rebels, Tahs, bye, Force
Chiefs (30/10) Blues, bye, Canes, Tahs, Clan, Canes, Blues
Waratahs (29/10) bye, Lions, Rebels, Chiefs, Ponies, Clan, Reds
Western Force (27/9) Cheetahs, Stormers, Lions, Saders, Blues, Reds, Ponies
Crusaders (26/9) Reds, Sharks, Clan, Force, Canes, Blues, Clan
Hurricanes (26/10) Rebels, Clan, Chiefs, Blues, Saders, Chiefs, bye
Highlanders (26/9) Lions, Canes, Saders, Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Saders
Blues (25/10) Chiefs, bye, Sharks, Canes, Force, Saders, Chiefs
Bulls (23/11) Stormers, bye, Ponies, Lions, Stormers, Rebels

Salient points:

We can safely say the Rebels, Lions and Reds are now out of contention. To expect the Rebels to score 10 more competition points than the Saders AND jump five places on the ladder is stretching credulity.

The most interesting point starting now is the intra-NZ competition: there are 11 all-NZ matches left to play. The Kiwi sides are bunched up in the middle of the table from 30 to 25 points, four of them on 26 and 25. Who's going to advance? Who's going to start jumping up-and-down on the spot? To my eye the Blues look the most unsettled of our eastern friends, but I could be way out there. One pundit over on The Roar reckons the Chiefs won't make the finals! As if..... The NZ teams HAVE been playing well, but they all can't win in these intra-Kiwi games. Let's look at their away wins:
Canes: Saders
Chiefs: Saders and draws against the Bulls and Cheetahs adding up to another win
Saders: Lions, Cheetahs and Chiefs
Clan: Sharks
A team's gotta do more than win its home games to make the semis, the Blues have no away wins.

The Bulls' finals hopes are hanging by a very thin thread. They have to, somehow, replace the Saders on 26 points, the Force on 27 or the Tahs on 29 while jumping up at least four spots. Sadly for the Bulls the Saders and the Force both have two games in hand over them while the Tahs have one. Hard to see, very hard.

The bye for the Tahs this weekend could well see them drop out of the top six. However, they're still a strong chance of a top four finish.

 

[Pfitzy]

Here is what we need from here - for the good of Australian rugby, you understand:

1 Tahs
2 Crusaders
3 Sharks
4 Brumbies
5 Force
6 Chiefs

WEEK 1:
Chiefs go to Durban - doesn't matter who wins because they're going to have to travel back across the Indian Ocean. But let's say Chiefs because, as I think I've made pretty clear: fuck Jake White, whose Sharks finish with less points than the Force after a shocking run home.

Brumbies and Force play out an absolute gob-smacker at a packed Canberra stadium. Force manage to get up and send the travelling sea of blue wild.

WEEK 2:
Waratahs play the Chiefs (lowest ranked qualifier) and thrash them handsomely, physically beating them up so Kiwi journalists have to eat their words over "too soft".

Force use their status as the Crusaders' bogey team to keep the home side tryless as McCalman smashes McCaw in the tackle, Hodgson stealing the spilled ball to score at the other end and seal the game, despite being roundhoused in the face by McCaw who earns a red card and a six week suspension because of it. Kiwis everywhere break into collective apoplexy as they contemplate a Bledisloe campaign without their head cheat.

WEEK 3 - the big one as we look to a new Super Rugby champion.

Waratahs play the Force at Homebush, with nearly 85,000 screaming fans there to set a new Super Rugby attendance record. In a scintillating game of heavenly rugby, 49 points are scored, no scrums are reset, approximately 650 women fall pregnant just from being in the vicinity and cold fusion is perfected when The Honey Badger tackles Israel Folau in the act of scoring the winning try, providing power to the world in perpetuity.

It is declared a public holiday across Australia forever more, while the NRL completely disintegrates from the waves of unstoppable awesomeness that flood outwards from the Olympic precinct. Australia is given a permanent seat at the UN, our politicians all start being honest, and Cheika is instantly canonised which he claims afterwards was "pretty fucking grouse".

A race of sexy aliens lands during the victory lap to offer peace treaties and environmental regeneration technologies to help save our planet and discover new ones. Religious zealotry evaporates as people come together over rugby, and forces everywhere lay down their arms to usher in a new age of peace and prosperity.

People from the eastern suburbs will still claim afterwards that there is no atmosphere at Homebush, despite not leaving their corporate box the whole game.

 

[Forcefield]

... is perfected when The Honey Badger tackles Israel Folau in the act of scoring the winning try...

How do you tackle a defender?

 

[Pfitzy]

Read it again.

With a sky blue eye patch

 

[Dismal Pillock]

Waratahs play the Force at Homebush, with nearly 85,000 screaming fans there to set a new Super Rugby attendance record. In a scintillating game of heavenly rugby, 49 points are scored, no scrums are reset, approximately 650 women fall pregnant just from being in the vicinity and cold fusion is perfected when The Honey Badger tackles Israel Folau in the act of scoring the winning try, providing power to the world in perpetuity.

 

[Forcefield]

Version 1.3.

13 rounds gone, 6 to go. Table and future fixtures:

Sharks (36 points/played 11) Saders, Blues, Stormers, Cheetahs, Stormers
Chiefs (35/11) bye, Canes, Tahs, Clan, Canes, Blues
Brumbies (34/11) Cheetahs, Bulls, Rebels, Tahs, bye, Force
Crusaders (31/10) Sharks, Clan, Force, Canes, Blues, Clan
Western Force (31/10) Stormers, Lions, Saders, Blues, Reds, Ponies
Hurricanes (30/11) Clan, Chiefs, Blues, Saders, Chiefs, bye
Highlanders (30/10) Canes, Saders, Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Saders
Waratahs (29/10) Lions, Rebels, Chiefs, Ponies, Clan, Reds
Bulls (28/12) bye, Ponies, Lions, Stormers, Rebels
Blues (25/11) bye, Sharks, Canes, Force, Saders, Chiefs

Getting very, very hot up there.

At this point I'd wipe out the Blues, who have 5 games remaining and all against higher placed teams. They'd need 4 wins and bonus points to get up there so I think it is safe to say that they are out. Hopefully they can put a spanner in the ride of the Canes, Crusaders and Chiefs.

The Bulls got 5 points and they bloody needed it. They'll need to win all of their remaining 4 games to be in with a chance. I think the Stormers or Brumbies will halt their progress.

The Waratahs have a good run home. They'd be unlucky to miss the finals at this point. The key games will be against the Rebels and Reds away. They will need at least one win from those two to go with three home wins.

The Highlanders have some tough opponents in the next few games. I'd love to see them share the spoils a bit in NZ but I can only see them beating the Reds from this point and even that is a maybe.

It's all NZ for the Hurricanes from this point on. They'll need at least three wins.

The Force have a mixed bag. They'll need at least three wins. But with three home games, it is possible. If they can take a win in Capetown things will look good.

The Crusaders are in red hot form. I think they'll win their remaining 6 to top the ladder.

The Brumbies will be nervous about their trip to South Africa and their away match to the Tahs. They need to win at least one of those three. I think they have the goods to take at least two of them.

The Chiefs will make it. They are comfortable enough where they are.

The Sharks have a tough end to the season. I think they'll be third placed of the three conference winners.

Thoughts?

 

[Pfitzy]

The Tahs' hopes sit upon the crux of two weeks: Brumbies at Homebush and them Chiefs in NZ. None of the others are serious finals contenders. While those other games still have to be won, positions are on the line in these two and with it, the travel factor

 

[Lindommer]

Spot on, NtA, travel to Homebush for the vast majority of New South Wales rugby supporters is a HUGE challenge. Of course, that doesn't include you or me.

 

[Lindommer]

The New Zealand cannibalisation's started. Read here: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-news/canes-expect-highlanders-dogfight-20140515-zrd9f.html

 

[Pfitzy]

Spot on, NtA, travel to Homebush for the vast majority of New South Wales rugby supporters is a HUGE challenge. Of course, that doesn't include you or me.

Well of course not, because we're debonair as fuck and take it all in our stride.

 

[scaraby]

Spot on, NtA, travel to Homebush for the vast majority of New South Wales rugby supporters is a HUGE challenge. Of course, that doesn't include you or me.

Can you land the chopper out there nowdays?

 

[Forcefield]

Are the Sharks going to win another game this season?

 

[Forcefield]

I think I just jinxed the Crusaders.

 

[Lindommer]

The Sharks just did.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

4 weeks ago I posted my predicted top 9, as follows:

1. Sharks 57 (13 wins)
2. Waratahs 53 (12)
3. Chiefs 51 (10 - those draws are gonna hurt them big time)
4. Force 49 (11)
5. & 6. Brumbies & Crusaders 48 (11) on points differential
7. Hurricanes 47 (10)
8. Bulls 44 (9)
9. Highlanders 43 (9)

For the purposes of this update I've assumed that the Waratahs will pick up maximum points today.

After their win last night the Sharks will be near-impossible to overhaul, unless the Blues can pull off a sensational upset. Barring that the Sharks won't lose again this regular season.

I still like the Waratahs for Aussie conf winners & 2nd overall, should easily beat Rebels & Reds & pick up 2 other wins from their tougher games v Chiefs, Brumbies & the Clan.

The disaster of last night notwithstanding, I'm now thinking the Crusaders will pip the Chiefs for NZ conf & overall 3rd, like I said a month ago those 2 draws are gonna hurt the Chiefs big time.

I still think the Force will finish 4th, albeit with 1 less win than I previously thought, Chiefs 5th with same points as Force but 1 less win (that where the draws will bit their ass), with Brumbies & Clan scrapping it out for 5/6: Brumbies should end up with 10 wins v Clan's 9 but she'll be tight & their respective final round matches - Brumbies v Force at home, Clan v Crusaders away - will probably decide it.

Bulls & 'canes are both gone IMHO.

So, here's my revised Top 6 with previous predictions in brackets:

1. (1) Sharks 58 points (57) 13 wins (13)
2. (2) Waratahs 52 (53) 11 (12)
3. (5/6) Crusaders 50 (48) 11 (11)
4. (4) Force 46 (49) 10 (11)
5. (3). Chiefs 46 (51) 9 (10)
6. (5) Brumbies 45 (48) 10 (11)
7. (9). Highlanders 45 (43) 9 (9)

Looking back over my notes from my original post, and assuming I'm right about the 'Tahs picking up maximum points today, I'd managed to pick 15 of the 18 games I used to establish my top 9 up until Friday night, since then I'm 0/4 so you Waratahs really need to pull finger to get my % back where it belongs!

 

[cyclopath]

@waiopehu oldboy - I'm 0/5 this round so far, having had 6/7 both the past 2 weeks, and been a point or two off 7/7 both times. The mocker Gods hate me!!
The Waratahs have been handed a nice weekend's results though - Crusaders, Brumbies and Force all going down have been very handy, and a BP win today will jump them up to 4th by my reckoning.
But they've gotta actually win first!!