The road home - Super rugby 2014

[Hugh Jarse]

@Cyclopath, not entirely your fault WRT the Mocker Gods. The senior of the Junior Jarses has been strutting around like a prize bantam rooster all week with performances similar to yours. He is also 0/5 this week.

I'd be on a duck this week except for the O'Donohue face scrunch.

The Competition table is tighter than a ducks backside ATM for positions 2- 7 all within 4 points and 4 of those 6 teams have 1 game in hand. Tahs in 8th are 6 points off 2nd place with 2 games in hand.

The cat is really right in the centre of the pigeons.

 

[qwerty51]

I reckon the top 6 will finish like this

Sharks
Waratahs
Chiefs
Crusaders
Brumbies
Force

Unfortunately means both the Force and Brumbies could find themselves away in NZ first up.

 

[Benaud]

I just finished reworking my likely ladder and got exactly the same result Qwerty.

The match between the Tahs and Brumbies in Sydney shapes as the likely determinant of who finishes top of the Aussie conference.

 

[Forcefield]

Version 1.4.

13 rounds gone, 6 to go. Table and future fixtures:

Sharks (40 points/played 12) Blues, Stormers, Cheetahs, Stormers
Brumbies (35/12) Bulls, Rebels, Tahs, bye, Force​

Chiefs (35/11) Canes, Tahs, Clan, Canes, Blues
Waratahs (34/11) Rebels, Chiefs, Ponies, Clan, Reds​

Highlanders (34/11) Saders, Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Saders​

Crusaders (32/11) Clan, Force, Canes, Blues, Clan
Western Force (31/11) Lions, Saders, Blues, Reds, Ponies
Hurricanes (31/12) Chiefs, Blues, Saders, Chiefs, bye
Bulls (28/12) Ponies, Lions, Stormers, Rebels
Blues (25/11) Sharks, Canes, Force, Saders, Chiefs

Getting very, very hot up there.

Blues and Bulls can hope but things aren't looking good with both teams needing to win 4 of their finals games.

The Waratahs had a big win versus the Lions. They will be confident next week against the Rebels and they may just need to be. I can see them getting at least three wins and topping the Aussie conference.

The Highlanders surprised a few against the Hurricanes. I don't fancy their chances against an angry Hurricanes side. I still think they'll need three wins and apart from the Reds I just don't see them getting it.

The Hurricanes bummed out against the Clan. They still need 3/4 and it doesn't look like it will happen for them.

The Force have a mixed bag. They'll still need at least three wins. But with three home games, it is possible. I think there will be a closely run scrap between the Force, Bulls and Highlanders for the 6th final spot.

The Crusaders massively fucked up against the Sharks. I can see them bouncing back and making the finals, but they might not top their conference anymore.

The Brumbies vs Bulls game next weekend is make or break. The Bulls need it to stay in the hunt. The Brumbies need it to hold the Waratahs back. If they don't beat the Bulls, they'll need wins against both the Rebels and Force at home, which is definitely possible.

The Chiefs will make it. They are comfortable enough where they are but they can't afford to take any of their opposition lightly.

The Sharks managed a houdini against the Crusaders. How the fuck did they get out of that one? I don't see them winning another game.
​

 

[Pusser]

I reckon the top 6 will finish like this

Sharks
Waratahs
Chiefs
Crusaders
Brumbies
Force

Unfortunately means both the Force and Brumbies could find themselves away in NZ first up.

Sadly, as a. Brumbies supporter I am not confident. It is frustrating that apart from the Crusaders, we loose to the bottom teams. We have lost to the cheetahs, the reds and the rebels. Unfortunately that is not what you would expect from a genuine contender. It is so frustrating but I live in hope.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

[Hawko]

Version 1.4.​

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13 rounds gone, 6 to go. Table and future fixtures:​

​

Sharks (40 points/played 12) Blues, Stormers, Cheetahs, Stormers​

Brumbies (35/12) Bulls, Rebels, Tahs, bye, Force​

Chiefs (35/11) Canes, Tahs, Clan, Canes, Blues​

Waratahs (34/11) Rebels, Chiefs, Ponies, Clan, Reds​

Highlanders (34/11) Saders, Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Saders​

Crusaders (32/11) Clan, Force, Canes, Blues, Clan​

Western Force (31/11) Lions, Saders, Blues, Reds, Ponies​

Hurricanes (31/12) Chiefs, Blues, Saders, Chiefs, bye​

Bulls (28/12) Ponies, Lions, Stormers, Rebels​

Blues (25/11) Sharks, Canes, Force, Saders, Chiefs​

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Getting very, very hot up there.​

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Took me a while to figure things out because its round 14 with five to go. Assume italics means a loss.

• Sharks are favourites against the Blues, whose forwards are not playing great and whose team appears badly coached. They will beat the Cheetahs but as they'll be confirmed as top team they might lose away to the Stormers. Three wins and one bonus point for losing gives them 53.
• If the Brumbies beat the Tahs (the Tahs don't play Jakeball teams well) then they'll get 3 wins and maybe a losing bonus point. Takes them to 48. Winning the Tahs game will be pivotal for their season.
• I can't see the Chiefs losing to the Canes, Clan and Blues. They might well lose to the Tahs even though they are at home, because they will find the Tahs hard to play against with their style. They might also lose one of the Canes games. Say three wins and three bonus points (two 4 try, one losing). Takes them to 50.
• Waratahs win against Rebels, Chiefs, Clan and Reds, two of those with four try bonus points. Lose to the Brumbies with a bonus point. Finish with 53.
• Highlanders will lose to the Saders twice, Chiefs and Tahs. A win against the Reds won't be enough. One win and two losing bonus points takes them to 40.
• Crusaders: Despite their braindead performance on Saturday, (gifting the Sharks four points they didn't deserve), I think they will only drop one game from here, probably the Canes away. Eighteen points takes them to 50.
• Western Force might get three wins and two close losses - 45points.
• Hurricanes: two wins, two losses, couple of bonus points - 41 points.
• Bulls have to win four and hope. I think they'll lose one with a bonus point - 41 points
• Blues: only two wins from here and totally out of it.

That leaves the table as Sharks (one more win), Waratahs, Crusaders (more wins), Chiefs, Brumbies, Force. Very close to Qwerty and Benaud, Chiefs will rue their draws. Final at Durban will get the Sharks home.

 

[Pfitzy]

Tahs basically have to win everything from here and hope Shorks and the Chokesaders lose one or two.

Fucking useless cantabs can't win with a two man advantage, yet had the opportunity to change the course of the whole competition

 

[ChargerWA]

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Took me a while to figure things out because its round 14 with five to go. Assume italics means a loss.

• Sharks are favourites against the Blues, whose forwards are not playing great and whose team appears badly coached. They will beat the Cheetahs but as they'll be confirmed as top team they might lose away to the Stormers. Three wins and one bonus point for losing gives them 53.
• If the Brumbies beat the Tahs (the Tahs don't play Jakeball teams well) then they'll get 3 wins and maybe a losing bonus point. Takes them to 48. Winning the Tahs game will be pivotal for their season.
• I can't see the Chiefs losing to the Canes, Clan and Blues. They might well lose to the Tahs even though they are at home, because they will find the Tahs hard to play against with their style. They might also lose one of the Canes games. Say three wins and three bonus points (two 4 try, one losing). Takes them to 50.
• Waratahs win against Rebels, Chiefs, Clan and Reds, two of those with four try bonus points. Lose to the Brumbies with a bonus point. Finish with 53.
• Highlanders will lose to the Saders twice, Chiefs and Tahs. A win against the Reds won't be enough. One win and two losing bonus points takes them to 40.
• Crusaders: Despite their braindead performance on Saturday, (gifting the Sharks four points they didn't deserve), I think they will only drop one game from here, probably the Canes away. Eighteen points takes them to 50.
• Western Force might get three wins and two close losses - 45points.
• Hurricanes: two wins, two losses, couple of bonus points - 41 points.
• Bulls have to win four and hope. I think they'll lose one with a bonus point - 41 points
• Blues: only two wins from here and totally out of it.

That leaves the table as Sharks (one more win), Waratahs, Crusaders (more wins), Chiefs, Brumbies, Force. Very close to Qwerty and Benaud, Chiefs will rue their draws. Final at Durban will get the Sharks home.

I was working on Italics means an away game.

 

[Hawko]

Tahs basically have to win everything from here and hope Shorks and the Chokesaders lose one or two.

Fucking useless cantabs can't win with a two man advantage, yet had the opportunity to change the course of the whole competition

Like just doesn't do it. I want the Saders coaches swabbed and their bank accounts checked. Even Hanson said the Crusaders refusal to change their gameplan was braindead.

 

[Lindommer]

Hawko, italics are away matches. In a perfect world they SHOULD be losses.

At this stage of the season the wheat's been sorted from the chaff and the cream starts rising to the top, if I'm allowed to mix my farming metaphors that is. Which makes last weekend's weird results even more difficult to understand. Let's presume for a moment the better teams should/will triumph against the also-rans for the rest of the season; I'm looking at the top ten teams winning every match they play against the bottom five. With one possible exception: the Stormers might (hopefully) hit a bit of home form against the Sharks. Added to that presumption the top ten sides win all their home games against each other. Although I mentioned the top ten the Bulls and Blues are no hope of making the finals, the Bulls (and the Canes) don't have enough matches left, and the Blues are just that bit too far behind the sixth-placed team to make it up.

SO, disregarding bonus points my final table looks like this:

50 Waratahs
48 Sharks (presuming one loss in three matches against the Cheetahs and Stormers)
46 Highlanders
44 Crusaders
43 Chiefs
43 Western Force
43 Brumbies
41 Bulls
39 Hurricanes
37 Blues

Some observations:

1. When are the wheels going to fall off the Sharks' caravan? They aren't that good a rugby side. The Blues are undefeated at Eden Park for some time, hopefully they can reel in the wobbegongs this weekend.
2. This weekend's Bulls/Brumbies match looms as a season-defining one for the Ponies. With only four matches left it's a must win.
3. The Tahs have their hands full with fixtures against three of the current top five in the next four matches. A win against the Rebels is essential if they're going to finish in the top two. The Chiefs, Saders and Clan also have their work cut out with matches against current top ten teams.
4. The remaining intra-NZ matches will continue to cannabalise those teams' chances.
5. Bonus points will, as ever, prove to be crucial. The Sharks have three matches against the cellar-dwellers (they can't win all three, surely?) while the Tahs and the Force have two, Tahs both away, Force both at home.

 

[qwerty51]

So you said the Sharks aren't a good side yet you have the Highlanders topping the NZ conference? They won't win another game.

 

[Lindommer]

The Clan have two home games left + the Reds in Brisbane. They aren't going to lose all three, no way.

 

[Hawko]

Hawko, italics are away matches. In a perfect world they SHOULD be losses.

50 Waratahs
48 Sharks (presuming one loss in three matches against the Cheetahs and Stormers)
46 Highlanders
44 Crusaders
43 Chiefs
43 Western Force
43 Brumbies
41 Bulls
39 Hurricanes
37 Blues

Some observations:

1. When are the wheels going to fall off the Sharks' caravan? They aren't that good a rugby side. The Blues are undefeated at Eden Park for some time, hopefully they can reel in the wobbegongs this weekend. That's the brilliance of Jakeball and why I hate it. It allows not so good teams who play in that negative fashion to still win.
2. This weekend's Bulls/Brumbies match looms up as a season-defining one for the Ponies. With only four matches left it's a must win. Agree, but the Bulls hopes of a top six finish also depend on this game. I don't think the Bulls can make it but I bet they do.
3. The Tahs have their hands full with fixtures against three of the current top five in the next four matches. A win against the Rebels is essential if they're going to finish in the top two. IMO the only match they can afford to drop is the Chiefs, but if they don't win all five they will cede the top spot to the Sharks. That means a final in Durban unless we get a swag of bonus points. The Chiefs, Saders and Clan also have their work cut out with matches against current top ten teams. Agree
4. The remaining intra-NZ matches will continue to cannabalise those teams' chances. Agree, but if one team goes on a run (cream rising to the top) they could still top the table.
5. Bonus points will, as ever, prove to be crucial. The Sharks have three matches against the cellar-dwellers (they can't win all three, surely?) If they lose to the Blues I think they will win all three, if they win against the Blues I think they are vulnerable to the Stormers at home while the Force have two, both at home. But they might well rack up some bonus points in their three SA matches.

If the Tahs can win the five games remaining then I think we are favourites for a home grand final. But if we win four I think we'll be pipped by the Sharks. Win three and we probably play away in the finals, lose three and we'll probably miss the finals.

I'm laid up in bed at home with the flu so I have happily spent hours looking at the permutations and combinations. But there is so much uncertainty that I think we will go into the final round still on tenterhooks. That game against the Reds, who think their season is a total success if only they can beat the Tahs, will be a huge banana skin.

 

[qwerty51]

The Clan have two home games left + the Reds in Brisbane. They aren't going to lose all three, no way.

Against the Crusaders and Chiefs.. no matter how bad the Reds are going I can't remember the last time the Highlanders even won on Aus soil.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

<snp> [The Tahs] game against the Reds, who think their season is a total success if only they can beat the Tahs, will be a huge banana skin.

Richard Graham could name the Sunnybank Under 18's as the Reds team for the game against the Tahs, and they would play like Beserkers and probably win, and if not, the Tahs would be as bashed up as Napoleon's troops were on the retreat from Moscow. The State of the Union match means a fair bit to the Red team, moreso when they have had an unsuccesful season and their pride is on the line.

 

[Blue]

Sharks will win two of the three back in SA.

They are getting Lambie and Coetzee back which gives them the opportunity to vary their play and balances the back row again. Their young locks are stepping up big time, against all expectations.

Cannot see the Cheetahs beating them. Just can't. They will demolish the Stormers pack.

Ain't going nowhere, these fish.

 

[Pfitzy]

Cannot see the Cheetahs beating them. Just can't.

Yes. I had the same thought the same about the Brumbies against the Cheetahs. And the Crusaders over the Sharks when they were gifted a man advantage

It has been a very competitive season, by and large. I won't rule out any result, though perhaps that comes from years of being a Tahs fan?

 

[Forcefield]

Version 1.5.​

​

4 rounds to go. Table and future fixtures:​

​

Sharks (44 points/played 13) Stormers, Cheetahs, Stormers​

Waratahs (39/12)Chiefs, Ponies, Clan, Reds​

Crusaders (37/12) Force, Canes, Blues, Clan​

Western Force (36/12) Saders, Blues, Reds, Ponies​

Hurricanes (36/13) Blues, Saders,Chiefs, bye​

Highlanders (36/12) Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Saders​

Brumbies (35/13) Rebels, Tahs, bye, Force​

Chiefs (35/12) Tahs, Clan, Canes, Blues​

Bulls (33/13) Lions, Stormers, Rebels​

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Another crazy round of Super Rugby. It is windy at the top!​

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• The Blues are officially out.
• The Bulls need their three wins (and probably bonus points to stay in it. The Stormers could do a lot of teams big favours.
• The Brumbies trip to South Africa was very expensive. They need 2 wins and lots of BPs or 3 wins to finish the season. It will be touch and go. Their final round game against the Force will be decisive.
• The Highlanders were unlucky against the Crusaders and maybe that's the end of their run. 3 Away games and some tough teams to boot. It'll be a scramble. They'll need at least 2 wins and BPs.
• Hurricanes reigned supreme over the Chiefs. They have three games and will need to win two and win bonus points.
• The Force pulled a rabbit out of a hat in their game against the Lions. They got the much needed 5 points. They'll hope for 2 wins and 2 BPs in their final games.
• The Crusaders had a get out of jail against the Highlanders. 3 home games should easily see them through to the finals.
• The Waratahs have a couple of tough games but should win 3 of their last 4 for a top 2 finish.
• The Sharks will be tired coming back to South Africa. They play an ever improving Stormers and will need to hang on tight to keep top billing.

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Is this the closest Super Rugby competition ever?​

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[Forcefield]

My predictions (wins underlined):

Crusaders (55 points) Force, Canes, Blues, Clan
Sharks (53 points) Stormers, Cheetahs, Stormers
Waratahs (53 points) Chiefs, Ponies, Clan, Reds

Western Force (46 points) Saders, Blues, Reds, Ponies
Highlanders (46 points) Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Saders
Brumbies (45 points) Rebels, Tahs, bye, Force
Chiefs (45 points) Tahs, Clan, Canes, Blues
Bulls (43 points) Lions, Stormers, Rebels
Hurricanes (42 points) Blues, Saders, Chiefs, bye
Maybe I am being a bit too hopeful. What is certain from here on: All teams apart from the Sharks need two wins from their last three or four games to make the finals. The Bulls need all 3.

 

[Brumby Runner]

My predictions (wins underlined):

Crusaders (55 points) Force, Canes, Blues, Clan
Sharks (53 points) Stormers, Cheetahs, Stormers
Waratahs (53 points)Chiefs, Ponies, Clan, Reds

Western Force (46 points) Saders, Blues, Reds, Ponies
Highlanders (46 points) Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Saders
Brumbies (45 points) Rebels, Tahs, bye, Force
Chiefs (45 points) Tahs, Clan, Canes, Blues
Bulls (43 points) Lions, Stormers, Rebels
Hurricanes (42 points) Blues, Saders,Chiefs, bye
Maybe I am being a bit too hopeful. What is certain from here on: All teams apart from the Sharks need two wins from their last three or four games to make the finals. The Bulls need all 3.

Think you might be close to the mark. But, unfortunately for the Brumbies, I think the Chiefs will also beat the Blues and hence finish above us. Just hope there will be one or two upsets that keep us in the running.