Why is Tom Carter unpickable?

[Bruce Ross]

There are a couple of threads currently running such as "Wallabies Trinations Squad" where it seems to be common ground that Tom Carter is not worthy of any consideration for the national squad.

For the centre positions all manner of names have been proposed, including players who have rarely played there or who have been tried and found wanting previously, but when Carter is mentioned it is almost always dismissively or derisorily. Unusually for a player who has been a regular run-on for his franchise for the past four seasons, Carter has never been tried by the national selectors even at the "A" level.

When a national squad is being selected I would have thought that serious consideration should be given to players who regularly play in the position(s) for which they are being considered and who have been tested thoroughly in the heat of the Super competition.

As an exercise I have taken up-to-date statistics from the Fox Fantasy site to compare those players from the Australian franchises who are listed as Inside Backs. I have listed the Top 10 for each of the relevant performance measures used by Fox Fantasy:

Minutes played: Beale 1196, Cooper 1188, Carter 1110, Giteau 1106, Fainga'a 1057, Mortlock 1054, O'Connor 1016, Mitchell 1006, Ioane 1004, Vuna 894

Tries: Cooper 5, Carter 5, Ioane 4, Beale 4, Sidey 4, Giteau 4, Cross 4, O'Connor 3, Halangahu 2, Mortlock 1

Try assists: Beale 9, Cooper 7, Halangahu 2, Lealifano 2, Sidey 2, Barnes 2, O'Connor 2, Vuna 2, Cipriani 2, Carter 1

Runs: Ioane 133, Beale 123, Giteau 102, Cooper 92, Carter 91, Lealifano 89, Mortlock, Cross 76, Fainga'a, O'Connor 65

Tackles bust: Ioane 69, Beale 51, Cooper 48, O'Connor 36, Vuna 36, Giteau 34, Carter 32, Lealifano 27, Mortlock 23, Mitchell 21

Offloads: Cooper 35, Beale 23, Ioane 16, Giteau 14, Lealifano 13, Cross 12, O'Connor 9, Vuna 7, Carter 6, Mortlock 5

Linebreaks: Ioane 15, Beale 14, Cooper 13, Vuna 10, O'Connor 9, Mitchell 7, Mortlock 6, Lealifano 6, Giteau 6, Carter 6

Tackles made: Carter 154, Fainga'a 147, Mortlock 122, Giteau 106, O'Connor 80, Cross 77, Fairbanks 75, Lealifano 71, Halangahu 67, Beale 66

Tackles missed: Vuna 38, Halangahu 26, Mortlock 25, Giteau 25, Cipriani 25, Cooper 23, Fainga'a 23, Mitchell 22, Ioane 21, Lealifano 18, (Carter 14)

Tackle success of Top 10 tacklers (%): Carter 91.7, Cross 87.5, Fainga'a 86.5, Fairbanks 85.2, Mortlock 83.0, O'Connor 82.5, Giteau 80.9, Beale 80.5, Lealifano 79.8, Halangahu 72.0

Pilfers: Fainga'a 3, To'omua 2, Carter 2

Turnovers forced: Sidey 2, Carter 2, Halangahu 1, Mortlock 1, Ioane 1, Fairbanks 1, Cooper 1, Cross 1, Mitchell 1

Long arm penalties: Carter 10, Fainga'a 8, Ioane 7, O'Connor 7, Giteau 7, Cooper 6, Vuna 6, Lealifano 5, Cipriani 5, Mortlock 4

Yellow cards: O'Connor 2, Mortlock 1, Lealifano 1, Vuna 1, Giteau 1, Carter 1

Errors: Cooper 33, O'Connor 24, Beale 23, Giteau 14, Cipriani 13, Mortlock 11, Lealifano 11, Barnes 11, Fainga'a 10, Halangahu 9, (Carter 5)

Form: Beale 54, Cooper 46.7, Sidey 33.2, Carter 31.6, Giteau 24.2, Halangahu 20.8, Ioane 20, Smith 20, Tapuai 19.3, Mortlock 17

Total score: Beale 548, Cooper 495, Giteau 442, Ioane 411, Carter 367, O'Connor 356, Cross 241, Lealifano 235, Fainga'a 235

Would Tom Carter really be out of his depth in a Wallabies squad?

 

[light]

can't argue with statistics, you win this time around Bruce.

 

[light]

Would like to point out that he's got a yellow card. maybe thats it

 

[gladiator]

he's missing the X-Factor .

 

[jay-c]

have u got the stats on how fast he runs the hundred?
i like him bruce> a lot> cept for his silly hair and silly try celebrations
but the wallaby backs are fast- real fast and he wouldnt have a chance in hell of keepin up with them> hes been found out a few times for pace throughout his career. its the same reason mortlock wont get in and i fear gerrard.
wallabies have gotta play to their strengths> we arnt big enough to bash the saffas or kiwis, but we are quicker and can more more skillful= smarter

 

[Ruggo]

Carter is solid and reliable and these players are needed to balance out the stars in a team. There are a few getting around that are like that. I don't believe he is unpickable and don't necissarily agree when people say he does not have it for international rugby because making that conclusion without trial is unjust.

We often lose sight that for any player to reach this level, he has to have talent and something going for him.

Stats don't tell the story of the when and where variables so I take them with a pinch of salt. They lack context without this in my view.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Well timed post.

 

[pissedoffihavetoregister]

He's likes rockabilly too much. That's so 80's......

 

[cyclopath]

have u got the stats on how fast he runs the hundred?
i like him bruce> a lot> cept for his silly hair and silly try celebrations
but the wallaby backs are fast- real fast and he wouldnt have a chance in hell of keepin up with them> hes been found out a few times for pace throughout his career. its the same reason mortlock wont get in and i fear gerrard.
wallabies have gotta play to their strengths> we arnt big enough to bash the saffas or kiwis, but we are quicker and can more more skillful= smarter

That's a furphy. Fruean, Dagg, Guildford, Rokocoko, Jane, Nonu for example are quick, at least as quick as their Aus counterparts. So too Aplon, de Jongh, Habana, Nokwe, Lambie and others for SA. I really don't see how we are substantially quicker. Carter would be about as quick as slower members of both backlines. There may be reasons to not pick him, but I'm not sure the "Oz are faster and more skillful" argument holds a lot of water.
I won't even start on the silly try celebrations (which I know was not part of your reasoning), but suffice to say, there are equally silly ones perpetrated by many others.

 

[Utility Back]

He has a annoying voice.

 

[Gnostic]

That's a furphy. Fruean, Dagg, Guildford, Rokocoko, Jane, Nonu for example are quick, at least as quick as their Aus counterparts. So too Aplon, de Jongh, Habana, Nokwe, Lambie and others for SA. I really don't see how we are substantially quicker. Carter would be about as quick as slower members of both backlines. There may be reasons to not pick him, but I'm not sure the "Oz are faster and more skillful" argument holds a lot of water.
I won't even start on the silly try celebrations (which I know was not part of your reasoning), but suffice to say, there are equally silly ones perpetrated by many others.

Fruen in particular showed that he beats AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) (the prefered 13 ATM) for pace by a long way.

 

[Groucho]

I'm convinced. Better than O'Connor. Whouda guessed?

 

[stusker]

Bruce,

Nothing in this statistical analysis surprises, other than that R Cross actually makes tackles and "Total Score" where James OConnor is pipped by Tom Carter....and there you have it.

Carter is a very strong defender (tackle % etc) and is durable (minutes played).

Carter is not a decent ballplayer (one try assist), elusive, creative (no errors unlike JOC (James O'Connor), Beale as he doesnt try anything), quick (must be amongst the slowest backs in Oz).

No he wouldnt be out of place defending next to QC (Quade Cooper), but he would interrupt the flow of the backline as he cant pass, make breaks/attract defenders etc.

Carter is also widely renowned as a bit of a doofus - see his post try celebrations. How any non-GenY finds him anything other than offensive and tedious is beyond me.....and Robbie Deams it would seem.

I also note Rory Sidey defeated/equalled Carter in many categories, and Tom defeated JOC (James O'Connor) and Kurtley. I reject your selection by statistics, Bruce.

I do hope D Vickerman shows some form in the next few weeks, however.

 

[chriss555]

TC is a good journey men. " Do good journey men play test rugby" ?

 

[Gnostic]

Stable, reliable to do what he does and not much more Bruce.

He still does not pass very well over any distance or very often, I don't think I have ever seen an effective kick. These two factors make defending against him very easy. He doesn't have the agility of someone like JOC (James O'Connor) to step somebody in tight and so you will see a case like the Stormers and Bulls where a good defender is lined up to hit him every time he gets the ball. All ruck ball from such tackles because they are predictable tends to be slow even though he invariably makes or gets over the gain line.

For mine he needs to be a lot more than just reliable to fill the spot for me.

 

[stusker]

That's a furphy. Fruean, Dagg, Guildford, Rokocoko, Jane, Nonu for example are quick, at least as quick as their Aus counterparts. So too Aplon, de Jongh, Habana, Nokwe, Lambie and others for SA. QUOTE]

Incorrect. Rokes is running on old legs, Nonu has never been quick. The Safas are quick straight line, Habana is diminishing, but would Nowke, Aplon or de Jongh make an Oz A side? No. Quotas aside, they are not SA RWC standard, Habana aside, so your analysis is irrelevant.

 

[Gnostic]

That's a furphy. Fruean, Dagg, Guildford, Rokocoko, Jane, Nonu for example are quick, at least as quick as their Aus counterparts. So too Aplon, de Jongh, Habana, Nokwe, Lambie and others for SA. QUOTE]

Incorrect. Rokes is running on old legs, Nonu has never been quick. The Safas are quick straight line, Habana is diminishing, but would Nowke, Aplon or de Jongh make an Oz A side? No. Quotas aside, they are not SA RWC standard, Habana aside, so your analysis is irrelevant.

Lambie at least would be on the wing I would think. He is a real talent. Habana has been out of form since his injury but is still a threat, Aplon is also an exceptional talent and would be a 50:50 call with our crop of talented youngsters. The big one that is missed in you run down of the fast SA backs who can run step and kick is JP Peterson - IMO he would beat Mitchell for a wing spot fully fit.

 

[stusker]

Lambie at least would be on the wing I would think. He is a real talent. Habana has been out of form since his injury but is still a threat, Aplon is also an exceptional talent and would be a 50:50 call with our crop of talented youngsters. The big one that is missed in you run down of the fast SA backs who can run step and kick is JP Peterson - IMO he would beat Mitchell for a wing spot fully fit.

Gnostic - Lambie on the wing? Preposterous. Aplon is garbage and has never performed at Trinations level. JP Pietersen is like Drew Mitchell 3 years ago, fast, elusive, but a headcase with poor ball security. Mitchell was in the best form of any winger globally pre-injury.

 

[Blue]

There have been many reliable Super rugby players over the years who would not let their national teams down.

That's the problem. He won't let them down but will he make a difference to the team? Add a dimension in attack or defense? Don't think so.

 

[Gnostic]

Stusker - what a rant.



Pity about the facts.