Reds 2021
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Gervais_rugbylives
Allen Oxlade (6)
The Nomad
Bob Davidson (42)
Defensively he would be less of an issue at 12 than 13 . Nothing wrong with his tackling ability, the 13 channel is more about timing and who to hit, toughest spot in the backline to defend .
His ball distribution would need to go up a level , but hat was a criticism of him playing 13 only last year . With time he could be a very good 12 .
Gervais_rugbylives
Allen Oxlade (6)
He can definitely put a shot on but I still think he needs work. As far as I am concerned, Hamish Stewart was a mostly defensive 12 this year, with many tackles and a fairly small contribution in attack so I think the team that was suggested earlier would require some good defensive coaching and coordination.
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Desmond Connor (43)
Am I the only one that thinks Petaia would be an immense fullback?
9 McDermott (tier 2)
10 JOC (James O'Connor) (tier 1)
11 Dangunu (tier 1)
12 Stewart (tier 3)
13 Paisami (tier 1)
14 Vunivalu (tier 3 - yet to be proven)
15 Petaia (tier 1)
21 Sorovi (tier 3)
22 CFS unsigned (tier 2) / Hegarty (tier 3)
23 Campbell (tier 3)
That is quality. Sorovi is inconsistent and I would be focusing on developing another scrum half. Stewart needs to be in the team as the second playmaker and can slip into flyhalf if JOC (James O'Connor) gets injured. He will know the plays and structures.
Flook (tier 4) is a developing player and with the level of the players in the team for 2021, I don’t see Flook getting any time other than for injuries. He’s got a way to go yet.
Still need a developing flyhalf (?). We have got Mac Grealy (15 - potentially tier 1)and JoJo Fifita (13 - potentially tier 1) coming into the squad for 2021 and will need to make room for them in the next two years. Some good depth coming in making it a healthy competition for the starting jersey. It’s looking good for Queensland.
TSR
Mark Ella (57)
I think Petaia could be a good 15, but a great 13. I’d rather we see him put there and left there. Plus I know you don’t rate Campbell, but I think he was excellent, so I don’t see it as a position of weakness.
I think Stewart was excellent too. I agree his real strength is defence, but I thought his skills in attack complemented JOC (James O'Connor) nicely. He straightens the attack well, but also throws a good long ball to give our attack width and his kicking game is sound.
The ‘problem’ is that Paisami & Petaia are both Wallabies, both should be in our best backline and are both best suited to 13. Even if you were prepared to play Petaia on the wing for another season, that is a ‘problem’ too with Vunivalu coming and Daugunu. From everything I’ve seen of Vunivalu he won’t have any problems transitioning.
So, if everyone is fit, someone is starting off the bench.
Certainly initially I think Stewart provides a much better balance. Agree with all the comments that Paisami would have some way to go. But he does have some skills, he is not just a battering ram, so 12 might be an option for him in the longer run. And/or it might give us an option in the event we need injury cover.
The problem with all the young guys - including Flook - is that the guys in front of them aren’t much older and so aren’t really going to be moved on in the short term. This would be a great time to snare a young 10 who is happy to have a 3 year development cycle in front of him, or a young 12/15 as we lack depth there. But I don’t know the Reds will be prioritising locking in a young 13 on anything other than a rookie/development contract unless they are a genuine wing option. This creates the follow up problem where the Reds will invariably lose some great talent to other clubs who are prepared to pay overs for them because they have much smaller nurseries. They’ll get some of these right and some wrong but commercial reality will always play their part somewhere.
All of this, of course, is subject to the outlining if the new TV deal which may well still result in some unplanned departures.
I think Stewart was excellent too. I agree his real strength is defence, but I thought his skills in attack complemented JOC (James O'Connor) nicely. He straightens the attack well, but also throws a good long ball to give our attack width and his kicking game is sound.
The ‘problem’ is that Paisami & Petaia are both Wallabies, both should be in our best backline and are both best suited to 13. Even if you were prepared to play Petaia on the wing for another season, that is a ‘problem’ too with Vunivalu coming and Daugunu. From everything I’ve seen of Vunivalu he won’t have any problems transitioning.
So, if everyone is fit, someone is starting off the bench.
Certainly initially I think Stewart provides a much better balance. Agree with all the comments that Paisami would have some way to go. But he does have some skills, he is not just a battering ram, so 12 might be an option for him in the longer run. And/or it might give us an option in the event we need injury cover.
The problem with all the young guys - including Flook - is that the guys in front of them aren’t much older and so aren’t really going to be moved on in the short term. This would be a great time to snare a young 10 who is happy to have a 3 year development cycle in front of him, or a young 12/15 as we lack depth there. But I don’t know the Reds will be prioritising locking in a young 13 on anything other than a rookie/development contract unless they are a genuine wing option. This creates the follow up problem where the Reds will invariably lose some great talent to other clubs who are prepared to pay overs for them because they have much smaller nurseries. They’ll get some of these right and some wrong but commercial reality will always play their part somewhere.
All of this, of course, is subject to the outlining if the new TV deal which may well still result in some unplanned departures.
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Desmond Connor (43)
Tier 1 players need to be retained and start as a priority. If we want to keep Petaia, Paisami and Fifita the changes need to happen going into 2021. We lost Gordon who I see as the next Wallabies flyhalf because the 2021 team wasn’t mapped out, with this as my fear for Grealy over the next couple of years. Grealy will be our up and coming Wallabies fullback. Not much competition in that channel now as I don’t rate Banks.
Of course we will lose players in the backs if they have to bide their time on the bench but it’s all about identifying the tier 1 and tier 2 players early. Tier 3 players are Super Rugby level that are unlikely to progress to the Wallabies squad and that’s where movement to other clubs will (should) occur.
I reckon Stewart and CFS will follow Hegarty overseas in 2022 if there is no indication for them in the Wallabies squad in 2021. This leaves us a bit light on in the centres moving forward, so transitioning Paisami into 12 now is probably ideal if Petaia stays at 13. He’d make a bloody good fullback though. This allows Fifita developing into the centres.
Of course we will lose players in the backs if they have to bide their time on the bench but it’s all about identifying the tier 1 and tier 2 players early. Tier 3 players are Super Rugby level that are unlikely to progress to the Wallabies squad and that’s where movement to other clubs will (should) occur.
I reckon Stewart and CFS will follow Hegarty overseas in 2022 if there is no indication for them in the Wallabies squad in 2021. This leaves us a bit light on in the centres moving forward, so transitioning Paisami into 12 now is probably ideal if Petaia stays at 13. He’d make a bloody good fullback though. This allows Fifita developing into the centres.
Brumby Runner
David Wilson (68)
Would Paisami play 12 like Kerevi? Looks like a similar type of player with similar skills to me. With the rest of that backline I don't think the game plan would be a restrictive "give it to Paisami " as it was with Kerevi, but no way you'd want slow ball getting to the likes of Petaia, Daugunu etc.
TSR
Mark Ella (57)
Agree with the majority of that RR. Certainly it is make or break next year for Campbell & Stewart in terms of Wallaby selection and it they can’t take the next step you’d assume there is a fair chance they’ll try and maximise their career potential. Likewise CFS has been a great servant, but injury has pushed him down the pecking order. Can’t blame them for that. What the great teams like the Crusaders have done really well is have new guys always progressing in the background and, because they have handled their development well and because they are coming into settled, performing teams the new guys always look good coming in.
Melbourne Storm is a very good example where they frequently take guys who are run-of-the-mill elsewhere and they look like world betters in the Storm system because they are really good at identifying their Tier 1 guys and having a good system that makes it easy for others to slot in around them. Thorn played in three similiar systems at the Broncos, Crusaders & Leinster plus, of course, the ABs with the difference there it is not so much about ‘core’ players as excellence across the board. (The one big difference with the Storm of course is they don’t have a nursery as such).
My point being I think everything Thorn is doing says to me that his big drive is to build a ‘system’ which stands up over time and will even hold up better in an environment of restricted economics. But it doesn’t necessarily mean retention of every star. I’ve got no doubt that one of the big factors that will determine if we are going to keep a lot of these guys is whether they are happy to take less than they could possibly get elsewhere.
The one place we probably differ is our view on what happened with Gordon. Clearly you are a lot closer to him and the whole environment then I am, but even based off what you’ve written a big factor in losing Gordon was the decision to embrace JOC (James O'Connor) as a 10. So then you have the current Wallaby 10 v a potential future Wallaby 10. IMO the right decision here was clearly to back JOC (James O'Connor) and, from that point on, it was always going to be hard to retain Gordon. He is simply a much worth much more to the Rebels the he is to us at the present. So personally, from my perspective I don’t see it as such a failing. Unfortunate. Would love to still have him - but you can understand why he took the money/opportunity at the Rebels.
Melbourne Storm is a very good example where they frequently take guys who are run-of-the-mill elsewhere and they look like world betters in the Storm system because they are really good at identifying their Tier 1 guys and having a good system that makes it easy for others to slot in around them. Thorn played in three similiar systems at the Broncos, Crusaders & Leinster plus, of course, the ABs with the difference there it is not so much about ‘core’ players as excellence across the board. (The one big difference with the Storm of course is they don’t have a nursery as such).
My point being I think everything Thorn is doing says to me that his big drive is to build a ‘system’ which stands up over time and will even hold up better in an environment of restricted economics. But it doesn’t necessarily mean retention of every star. I’ve got no doubt that one of the big factors that will determine if we are going to keep a lot of these guys is whether they are happy to take less than they could possibly get elsewhere.
The one place we probably differ is our view on what happened with Gordon. Clearly you are a lot closer to him and the whole environment then I am, but even based off what you’ve written a big factor in losing Gordon was the decision to embrace JOC (James O'Connor) as a 10. So then you have the current Wallaby 10 v a potential future Wallaby 10. IMO the right decision here was clearly to back JOC (James O'Connor) and, from that point on, it was always going to be hard to retain Gordon. He is simply a much worth much more to the Rebels the he is to us at the present. So personally, from my perspective I don’t see it as such a failing. Unfortunate. Would love to still have him - but you can understand why he took the money/opportunity at the Rebels.
Adam84
Nick Farr-Jones (63)
From what I’ve heard the Rebels see Gordon as a starting Super Rugby player in 2021 and were prepared to pay him as such, Reds didn’t have a starting position for him and couldn’t pay the same amount of money for a squad player.
It sucks and I don’t think it’s a lack of vision, just a different timeframe of when that vision will occur, but I get why players in this kind of position move on.
It sucks and I don’t think it’s a lack of vision, just a different timeframe of when that vision will occur, but I get why players in this kind of position move on.
TSR
Mark Ella (57)
I think they’d be similiar. Definitely the game plan would not be just about giving it to Paisami. Paisami is a hard runner, but not nearly as devastating as Kerevi is. However he is a better defender.
Paisami distribution game is definitely a weakness, as Kerevi’s was, but hopefully Paisami has a much better coaching framework around him to improve. If Paisami was at 12 I think you definitely want someone like Campbell at 15 who reads play well and can distribute as well. Agree 100% it would be a poor outcome if it narrowed our attack.
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Desmond Connor (43)
I get it. Who knows what a couple of years will bring. We might see him back in our QLD colours.
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Desmond Connor (43)
Seeing the improvement in the Reds is definitely Thorn’s influence and experience in the higher echelons. Clearly JOC (James O'Connor) as Wallabies flyhalf will get preference over an unproven player but we still have the risk on injury. I’m just pissed that Gordon’s timing wasn’t a year delayed. What’s the go with Mason Gordon, it was mentioned on the Rebels2020 thread that he was off there as well. Who else have we got developing?
TSR
Mark Ella (57)
So, moving on from our backs, who are the young guys coming through in the forwards?
In particular depth for prop & lock. We were extremely lucky Tupou never got injured this year. We really need some depth on both sides, particularly if it’s true both Smiths are moving on. Zander has done incredibly well for a bloke plucked from relative obscurity- but I’m not sure he has the mobility to become a top level prop. Nonggorr looks to have a high ceiling, but I’d like him to be able to build gradually. Lock - not sure. I thought Tualima was okay. Not sure where he is at in terms of his ceiling though.
Who are the names to watch from QPR?
In particular depth for prop & lock. We were extremely lucky Tupou never got injured this year. We really need some depth on both sides, particularly if it’s true both Smiths are moving on. Zander has done incredibly well for a bloke plucked from relative obscurity- but I’m not sure he has the mobility to become a top level prop. Nonggorr looks to have a high ceiling, but I’d like him to be able to build gradually. Lock - not sure. I thought Tualima was okay. Not sure where he is at in terms of his ceiling though.
Who are the names to watch from QPR?
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Desmond Connor (43)
Wilson
David Codey (61)
For Locks there's also Ryan Smith in the squad and I won't be surprised if we see a bit more of Angus Scott-Young there next year.
Otherwise there's Blyth's younger brother Wilson at bond, he's probably a year or 2 of super at least but his development path has followed Angus', so he's a good shout for the future. Connor vest has been looking pretty good for UQ and has a few NRC seasons under his belt. At 192cm/6'3" he's a bit short, but fine for a super level lock. Both are playing in finals this weekend (Blyth on the bench) if you want to check them out. Not sure about the other sides.
I think there is some good depth at prop. It's been a great strength of Brad and Crapper.
1 - Hoopert, Zander, Straker
3 - Tupou, Zonggorr, Fotuaika
At lock outside of A Blyth and LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto), there's Tualima, Smith, Blyth Jnr and Fewtrell. I still wouldn't mind seeing some of those Brumby locks they contracted to come back home.
1 - Hoopert, Zander, Straker
3 - Tupou, Zonggorr, Fotuaika
At lock outside of A Blyth and LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto), there's Tualima, Smith, Blyth Jnr and Fewtrell. I still wouldn't mind seeing some of those Brumby locks they contracted to come back home.