Super Rugby Round 9, 2018 - Rebels vs Jaguares - Saturday 14 April @ AAMI Park

[Hawko]

They sure should have taken the draw. It wasn't a difficult kick.

No matter how good your lineout is, I don't think you have a 50% chance of scoring from that 5m lineout which is kind of the odds you need to make it worthwhile going for 4 competition points instead of 2.

They had one point guaranteed. Say they had an 80% chance of making the kick to give them two points - so equivalent to 1.8.
To get another three points they had to score a try. The odds of doing so only need to be about one in three to beat the 1.8 expectation. On that basis IMO going for the win was the right call, unless you believe the Rebels had less than 30% chance of scoring or winning another penalty during the phases following.

That they didn't was down to Berry and the Rebel execution.

 

[Braveheart81]

Woops. My logic was right out forgetting about the losing bonus point they already had.

The final call from Berry was bizarre. Once he called tackled, surely that had to be a penalty.

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[Derpus]

They had one point guaranteed. Say they had an 80% chance of making the kick to give them two points - so equivalent to 1.8.
To get another three points they had to score a try. The odds of doing so only need to be about one in three to beat the 1.8 expectation. On that basis IMO going for the win was the right call, unless you believe the Rebels had less than 30% chance of scoring or winning another penalty during the phases following.

That they didn't was down to Berry and the Rebel execution.

Nope, just Berry.

 

[Rebels3]

Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture eg. making the top 8. It was only one point difference on the ladder but with the SA tour coming up plus momentum and confidence, points might be at a premium.

He had 3 options - take the points, go for the line out and take the scrum. At the end of the day he picked the worst of the 3.

Coleman will learn from this. Should of took the points and lived for another day

 

[Braveheart81]

The Rebels did well to keep the ball for so long at the end there but it also felt like they didn't really have any momentum and both their lineout and scrum were stuttering. I certainly didn't feel confident when watching that they were going to suddenly be clinical and win the game.

 

[Rock Lobster]

The funny thing is it almost looked like they were playing for a penalty and then when they got one they turned it down...odd. I applaud them for having a crack but if you are going to take a scrum, knowing the opposition is going to have a decent crack at you, taking the weight of the No.8 off and trying to pick it up probably isn't your best option.

Just on Mafi, he had 25 carries in this game! The rest of the forwards, including subs, had 47 carries between them . I know the guy is a weapon but surely one player taking such a disproportionate amount of the workload is going to create issues somewhere.

 

[Derpus]

Just on Mafi, he had 25 carries in this game! The rest of the forwards, including subs, had 47 carries between them . I know the guy is a weapon but surely one player taking such a disproportionate amount of the workload is going to create issues somewhere.

It does, in the second half when he runs out of steam and you lot start looking like a subbies team.