SupeRugby Final 2011: Queensland Reds V Canterbury Crusaders

[Scotty]

Stats or no stats....Link will get Quades head in the right space for Saturday night. Wonder if changing boots has got much to do with it! Those laces were bright!

My theory on Cooper is that he only makes mistakes when he has time to think. Think about that loose forward running at him, think about that kick he is lining up, think about that clearance kick he needs to make. He has to learn to switch off and just 'be in the zone' to become a great kicker.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I'd have some concerns over the Reds set pieces for the final. Saia's line out throwing seems to be getting worse as the time goes on (he's still great around the paddock) and the pack is still battling in the scrums. Those are two areas I would expect the Cru to target. With that said, the Reds counter attack and general play was exemplary. Genia was a real general and directed play beautifully (as he has all season) and Cooper was at his mercurial best. Some of that running rugby was breathtaking and I hope they continue to do it on Saturday. Having Robinson and Gill as the one-two punch at openside was also a great move. Beau did the tough stuff at the start of the game and Gill seemed to pilfer the ball at will towards the end. They will be coming up against a similar situation against the Cru, however. Todd has been a revelation and it will be a fascinating battle at the breakdown.

 

[fatprop]

This might be contentions but I think the Crusaders were flattered by a fairly dismal Stormers effort on the weekend. They have a great lineup on paper but have often misfired this season. The Reds, by contrast, are more than the sum of their parts - a team. I don't see any reason why they can't win this.

Dunno whether the Stormers were that bad or the saders just didn't let them into the game. The saders simply stopped their set piece, they took Bekker out of the game at lineout time and demolished their scrum - it is damm hard to win much with no set piece.

I expect the saders to play a bit different against the Reds (they stacked the front of the lineout to limit the mauling, against the Reds I expect them to stack the back to slow the quick ball off the top and try to force the Reds to take their lineouts at the front)

 

[Groucho]

Footy games are won on the field not on paper (or the newspapers for that matter) and statistics don't count for zip in a final. It all comes down to who has the better tactics and plays the game in front of them ON THAT DAY. The Reds have been the best at that all year but the Crusaders have a habit of winning when it really counts - shapes up as one hell of a game

People sometimes misconstrue statistics. Any statistician will tell you that of course they don't influence the result. They are actually more important than that. They are our memory of the past - a true record of what has happened, free of the cloudiness and plasticity of anecdote. And they don't only tell you what happened, they can also reveal why. That's why sports organizations rely on them so much.

The Crusaders record of winning when it really counts is a statistic. So is the difficulty of winning after a long two-way trip. In neither case does the statistic influence the result - it can't - but it reveals how these teams and teams like them have historically performed. You might argue that the Crusaders are somehow 'above' that kind of analysis, but that record includes the Crusaders themselves.

I think the long trip is a biggie. The physiological effect of a long flight plus west to east jet lag is well understood and hard to counter. It will affect players energy levels and concentration. That has nothing to do with statistics: the stats simply record the effect that travel has had in the past, in this case with a high degree of certainty. The Crusaders aren't gods. They will be affected. The question is by how much.

They will also be affected by playing away from home. I'm sure they don't 'care', but the raw statistics in this case stand for a raft of factors that will be to the Crusaders' disadvantage, whether it effects them mentally or not. This is why the All Black's record at Suncorp is worse than at most grounds. They don't care either, but they are still affected.

The team that will be effected emotionally by playing at Suncorp is the Reds. Their record is spectacularly better at home. This game won't be won or lost by the Crusaders attitude: it will be won or lost by two teams playing rugby. And the Reds play better rugby at home. That's an historical fact.

 

[Raugeee]

Elephant in the room

I don't know why people are saying the saders are favorites. 3 time zones in two weeks and returning from south Africa v the number one side in the comp with a win over them already. QLD are the frontrunners, crusaders have done well to brilliant to be where they are but QLD and aus rugby fans need to embrace that the reds are hot to trott here.

After so many years of being the entertainers, the saders slowing this game done and keeping it tight is what is going to win it for them, cant wait, best result for the final out of this weeks games.

 

[Scotty]

You'd expect the Saders to try and come out of the blocks early, and put some tries on the board in the first half. It is extremely likely that the Reds will finish the better from a fitness perspective, and with the home crowd behind them, but if the Saders put them under scoreboard pressure the less experience Reds might start to struggle.

 

[Raugeee]

I don't know why people are saying the saders are favorites. 3 time zones in two weeks and returning from south Africa v the number one side in the comp with a win over them already. QLD are the frontrunners, crusaders have done well to brilliant to be where they are but QLD and aus rugby fans need to embrace that the reds are hot to trott here.

After so many years of being the entertainers, the saders slowing this game done and keeping it tight is what is going to win it for them, cant wait, best result for the final out of this weeks games.

I know nobody wants to talk about the elephant in the room but the reason Crusaders are favorites is that Bryce Lawrence will be in charge of the game. To borrow another animal themed metaphor it's like putting the fox in charge of the chicken coop.

It's a joke.

My prediction is that Reds score 2 tries to one but will lose by 4 points on the back of Carter penalties. Those penalties will be from scrums where Lawrence will be wilfully hoodwinked by the Crusaders.

As always, I hope I'm wrong. David Gallup said before State of Origin 2 that the smart money would be on NSW. I can see a similar result occuring with Canterbury prevailing 19 -14 on Saturday.

Sorry to be a bummer but blame SANZAR.

 

[Gnostic]

This might be contentions but I think the Crusaders were flattered by a fairly dismal Stormers effort on the weekend. They have a great lineup on paper but have often misfired this season. The Reds, by contrast, are more than the sum of their parts - a team. I don't see any reason why they can't win this.

The only part I can agree with in this statement is the Crusaders defence. They weren't really tested at any stage by a Stormer's attack that was very average with ball in hand, the only real metres they made was from kick and chase with Habana again the only effective chaser

 

[RedsHappy]

....The team that will be effected emotionally by playing at Suncorp is the Reds. Their record is spectacularly better at home. This game won't be won or lost by the Crusaders attitude: it will be won or lost by two teams playing rugby. And the Reds play better rugby at home. That's an historical fact.....

Just a minor footnote to the above: if you haven't been there for the 48,000 last Cru game crowd or last Saturday's 45,000 Blues game, you can't fully appreciate the intensity of the Suncorp crowd roars of support (and booing at disagreeable ref's decisions) for the Reds. It is phenomenal, immense and Suncorp's design significantly accentuates it. Link recently likened it to an English PL soccer match's intensity and continuity, and he was spot on IMO. However, my TV replay did pick quite a bit of it up.

Just makes going to games with these crowds all the more exciting and fun and how football should be viewed and experienced (except when my son and I cover our eyes for QC (Quade Cooper)'s 'hard to miss' place kicks ;-) ).

 

[DPK]

Channelling Matt Burke there, RH?

 

[Slim 293]

Is it too late, or rather too soon to bill this match as the Floods v the Quakes?

 

[Raugeee]

Is it too late, or rather too soon to bill this match as the Floods v the Quakes?

Is that Quake Dooper?

 

[MajorlyRagerly]

I know nobody wants to talk about the elephant in the room but the reason Crusaders are favorites is that Bryce Lawrence will be in charge of the game. To borrow another animal themed metaphor it's like putting the fox in charge of the chicken coop.

It's a joke.

My prediction is that Reds score 2 tries to one but will lose by 4 points on the back of Carter penalties. Those penalties will be from scrums where Lawrence will be wilfully hoodwinked by the Crusaders.

As always, I hope I'm wrong. David Gallup said before State of Origin 2 that the smart money would be on NSW. I can see a similar result occuring with Canterbury prevailing 19 -14 on Saturday.

Sorry to be a bummer but blame SANZAR.

Sorry mate, but blaming the ref one week out from the game is shithouse. Look, we all think Lawrence is shit ok - both sides of the Tasman are in consensus for once. But looking at the misery of doom already from the Reds point of view on this already is seriously lame.

Reds to win, because too much going for them. Man for man across the teams, I'd give it to the Crusaders, but that combined with legacy isn't going to be enough to negate home advantage, the worlds most confident fly half (who I fucking hate (irrelevant but so what)) & a well drilled team who can, & have, beat anybody put in front of them.

Gonna be a cracking match, and if I can stay busy enough at work to keep my eyes out of the media (on both sides of the Tassie), I can't see me being more excited about a rugby match this year until knockout time at the WC.

 

[RedsHappy]

Is it too late, or rather too soon to bill this match as the Floods v the Quakes?

Love that! (And isn't this line getting a bit sickenly overworked in the media?)

 

[rsea]

Sorry mate, but blaming the ref one week out from the game is shithouse.

I'm fed up with this positive approach before every reaming and the inevitable "don't blame the ref mantra" afterward
We get screwed time and time again by Kaplan, Lawrence and Yonkers. We're got to be 10 points better on the day to have a shot at winning. It's BS.

 

[tigerland12]

Why isn't Marius Joubert The ref? I know they decide weeks in advance but really, a neutral ref should be chosen

 

[MajorlyRagerly]

I'm fed up with this positive approach before every reaming and the inevitable "don't blame the ref mantra" afterward
We get screwed time and time again by Kaplan, Lawrence and Yonkers. We're got to be 10 points better on the day to have a shot at winning. It's BS.

Blame the ref then, up to you. Makes you look very very lame in my opinion (but who cares about that anyway, I'm just a stupid kiwi). I'm guessing you probably thought Dickinson was awesome in the last Saders/Reds game though. Win some, lose some.

Tigerland - agreee, Joubert should be the ref, he was awesome in Saders vs Stormers.

But it's Lawrence, it's been decided it won't be changed. I'm sure both teams are studying the way he refs and looking forward to working with him as it's the right approach. It's a shame alot of fans can't take the same one.

 

[Raugeee]

Sorry mate, but blaming the ref one week out from the game is shithouse. Look, we all think Lawrence is shit ok - both sides of the Tasman are in consensus for once. But looking at the misery of doom already from the Reds point of view on this already is seriously lame.

Reds to win, because too much going for them. Man for man across the teams, I'd give it to the Crusaders, but that combined with legacy isn't going to be enough to negate home advantage, the worlds most confident fly half (who I fucking hate (irrelevant but so what)) & a well drilled team who can, & have, beat anybody put in front of them.

Gonna be a cracking match, and if I can stay busy enough at work to keep my eyes out of the media (on both sides of the Tassie), I can't see me being more excited about a rugby match this year until knockout time at the WC.

It is sh!t but it's also reality. It's not that Lawrence is crap it's that he's a Kwi. This is a final of an international comp. I can just imagine the bleating if Stu Dickinson was in charge of the World Cup final Wallabies v All Blacks. Would you be adhering to your same line then? No, I didn't think so.

I won't even be able to watch the game as I know I'll get too angry watching the better team go down.

Still, I'll be having $5 on Crusaders to win by 4. I'd be crazy not too.

 

[matty_k]

Is it too late, or rather too soon to bill this match as the Floods v the Quakes?

I put that out there on Twitter a couple of days ago. I kind of cringed when I pushed send but it got a few retweets. It feels like it should be wrong but.....

 

[MajorlyRagerly]

It is sh!t but it's also reality. It's not that Lawrence is crap it's that he's a Kwi. This is a final of an international comp. I can just imagine the bleating if Stu Dickinson was in charge of the World Cup final Wallabies v All Blacks. Would you be adhering to your same line then? No, I didn't think so.

I won't even be able to watch the game as I know I'll get too angry watching the better team go down.

Still, I'll be having $5 on Crusaders to win by 4. I'd be crazy not too.

Oh right, it's not cos he's crap, it's because he's biased. Gotcha.

I don't agree with the non-neutral ref's either. But I wouldn't lose hope, lose sleep & put money on the opposition becuase I was so 100% sure that a full professional person whose livelihood depends on them being neutral would ensure the far far far far far far better team (in my eyes only) lost.

Grip. Try getting one.