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Wallabies v All Blacks, Saturday 21st October, Suncorp, Brisbane

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Derpus

George Gregan (70)
Fatprops point, and i agree, is that we don't shuffle at turnover. We turn around and form a line, with defenders defending wherever they fall in the line at turnover.
 

KOB1987

Rod McCall (65)
I froze on a frame watching the recording and in attack off a scrum we were aligned as such: 9. Genia, 10. Foley, ?. Beale (directly behind the scrum - he ended up looping around Foley), 12. Hodge, 13. Kuridrani
 

Strewthcobber

Mark Ella (57)
Just to shed a little light on Cheika's thinking, Beale was #2 for missed tackles in TRC with 15. He made 32.

Hodge missed 9 and made 37

Stats, lies etc

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hammertimethere

Trevor Allan (34)
I don’t love the shuffling with 12 and a winger. It’s an awkward thing to try to execute in phase 2-4 following a turnover and opens up space on the edge for wingers or kicks in behind.

Shuffling 12-15 is probably easier because you can just leave the wingers to do their thing and work in a pendulum fashion.

For this reason I’d prefer it to be a 12/15 role with Beale + Hunt if fit or Hodge with Folau wearing 14 and playing the 2nd fullback role.
 

ACT Crusader

Jim Lenehan (48)
Yeah good call. I don't reckon the All Blacks are anywhere near invincible - mainly because the defence is leaky. This season, they lost to the Lions, drew with the Lions (for my money if there was a fourth game they would have lost that too), nearly lost in Dunedin, and nearly lost in South Africa. The ABs are still good at pulling it out of the bag, but they would have got pumped by the McCaw/Carter vintage of the team. I'm occasionally fond of the old emotional gambling hedge, so I just put a bit down on the Wallabies at $5.75. They may not be favourites, but I think this is a lot closer than the average punter is expecting.

The 10/12/13 and back 3 combinations are all new and trying to find their groove.

The SBW/ALB combo against the Lions was not good at all.
 

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
The 10/12/13 and back 3 combinations are all new and trying to find their groove.

The SBW/ALB combo against the Lions was not good at all.
Presuming you play Naholo and the rest of the backline stays unchanged, there're no real noted kickers in general play outside of McKenzie and Barrett are there (discounting Smith)? Is that exploitable for the Wallabies if they decide to kick deep and pin down a winger or do your defensive structures generally have Barrett covering at fullback? I haven't really paid much attention to it until now.
 

Namerican

Bill Watson (15)
One of the big similarities between the Boks and Wallabies first games was that they both got murdered on turnover ball. If you turn it over against this AB outfit the likes of Barrett and Ioane will make you pay. If you can control possession then I don't think they're as threatening off structured play as some of the All Black teams in the past.

That's exactly what happened to South Africa against them. A few bad turnovers=tries and game over. The All Blacks have looked almost anemic on structured offense as of late, at least by their standard. The last time they looked great in structured play was in Lions #1 when they were just pounding the ball off of rucks over and over again, although that isn't exactly a reliable strategy for scoring points as it takes 20+ phases. Unfortunately Australia plays a bit of a high risk high reward type of game and give up turnovers, but it certainly seems like something you can control for a bit. The Lions did great as they rarely gave them any room to operate. All kicks were contested and defended box kicks or long punts into the corner with the defense screaming up (arguably offside). One area I think the Aussies do better is off set piece in the backline, where they often make metres or linebreaks with nifty back play.
 

Namerican

Bill Watson (15)
Presuming you play Naholo and the rest of the backline stays unchanged, there're no real noted kickers in general play outside of McKenzie and Barrett are there (discounting Smith)? Is that exploitable for the Wallabies if they decide to kick deep and pin down a winger or do your defensive structures generally have Barrett covering at fullback? I haven't really paid much attention to it until now.

It certainly seems like Barrett's always hanging back there on defense.
 

Ruggo

Mark Ella (57)
Got to get NZ committing to the breakdown. If Read and Squire/Fafita are in tight doing runt work, we will be achieving that. If not, they will carve us up out wide.
 

dru

Tim Horan (67)
The All Blacks have looked almost anemic on structured offense as of late, at least by their standard.

That is quite astute. The ABs haven't really needed to dominate possession often as they so frequently tale points on the counter. I never stopped to think about how their structured offense was going. Of course you could say they just don't need it. I'm feeling that if things blow the right way that we could be in with a smokey outside chance on this game. The last time I felt like this, unfortunately, was the Boks facing the ABs in their first match this RC. So a drubbinbg is more likely.
 

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
That is quite astute. The ABs haven't really needed to dominate possession often as they so frequently tale points on the counter. I never stopped to think about how their structured offense was going. Of course you could say they just don't need it. I'm feeling that if things blow the right way that we could be in with a smokey outside chance on this game. The last time I felt like this, unfortunately, was the Boks facing the ABs in their first match this RC. So a drubbinbg is more likely.

Even after our drubbing in Sydney I still felt we were in with a chance in Dunedin because so many of the ABs tries were off the back of turnover ball--I would be interested to see some stats on this. If we can control possession reasonably well in Brisbane I think we're better than an outside chance. I wasn't that impressed with the NZ performance in the second half in Argentina when they made plenty of errors on more structured attack.
 

Namerican

Bill Watson (15)
That is quite astute. The ABs haven't really needed to dominate possession often as they so frequently tale points on the counter. I never stopped to think about how their structured offense was going. Of course you could say they just don't need it. I'm feeling that if things blow the right way that we could be in with a smokey outside chance on this game. The last time I felt like this, unfortunately, was the Boks facing the ABs in their first match this RC. So a drubbinbg is more likely.

The good news I guess is that you can control some of the loose turnovers. South Africa last game really rushed a box kick. Kick went too far and there weren't many chasers. I think it was off a turnover and usually that's a good time to blast a kick deep, but you can't afford a poor kick/chase that isn't structured. Instead run a few structured phases, get chasers ready, put up a 20 metre contested box kick. It was totally avoidable.

The Lions were so good at this! I counted one game where the ABs passed the ball more than twice in phase play only twice in the first half. So much for a team playing with width.

This isn't Barrett or SBW's strong suit - both look to run, break the line, then pass or in Barret's case a cross kick. Again the cross kick is basically trying to manufacture the space and chaos of a turnover, which to me is an admission that your structured play isn't that good.

Either that or the ABs have just realized that structure is statistically overrated and points these days come from mayhem and crazy athletes that can take advantage.

Either way I think they are beatable and some of their current players like S Barrett, Cane, SBW, whomever is at 6, are a step down from McCaw, Kaino, Nonu, Retallick (still amazing but might be out) etc. They can be matched physically a little easier IMO.
 

BarneySF

Bob Loudon (25)
Either that or the ABs have just realized that structure is statistically overrated and points these days come from mayhem and crazy athletes that can take advantage.

A great coach once prophesied something about playing what’s in front of them



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Strewthcobber

Mark Ella (57)
Not going to say who or where, but there were a number of current Wallabies in quite good spirits out at 2am last night

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