Scomo keeps arguing that we can't take this next step without being prepared for it to last for many months. I don't really understand that logic. You can lift it at any time.
The logic that we need to wait to see what the current measures do is poor because it takes a significant amount of time to see what those results are.
I guess if we play what a full lockdown looks like; close down for 2 - 4 weeks, open up for 4 - 6 weeks, close down for 2 - 4 weeks (repeat until vaccine comes out). I honestly don't know how someone could operate a business like that between finding staff, getting stock, fulfilling sales etc You're better off keeping some form of consistency and a partial lockdown like we're on now should have been done weeks ago.
People dismiss the economy argument, but we saw the sheer amount of people now needing unemployment benefits. If you constantly add more to it, it's going to make it harder to support those people and provide funding for those Government services such as Health and paying health care workers' wages. Adding more people just makes the spiral harder to come out off.
Simply looking at the numbers, its difficult to even know if you're comparing apples to apples. Plenty of countries could be under reporting through not providing testing.
Unfortunately trying to find 'live/current' tests conducted is hard, the last comprehensive update was 4 days ago -
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#current-covid-19-test-coverage-estimates
But, Australia was the 3rd highest in tests conducted per person (behind UAE and South Korea). South Korea's stats are seen to be the most 'truthful' due to the sheer amount of tests being done, so you get a better picture on what's going on. In an equivalent period, South Korea had 6,284 confirmed cases, Australia is currently at 2,144 with more to come later today. They also had a body count of 44 deaths to our 8. If you take in account their 52 million to our 25 million population and double each; if we come under 3,000 today and 20 deaths then we're either on track or doing a good job.
Now, why I think its important to look at this is, based on the models going around, at current rate, Australia's ICU beds are deemed to be full by April 11, if it goes to 4 days to double its April 18 (Norway) and if we get to South Korea of 5 days to Double its April 25th. -
https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/03...uXM94ZqkooxnI6Np6qpaxIB1uNF0BspdDrlz9ZEd-CtLU
So realistically speaking, people should be bracing that peak ICU will happen one way or another and prepare themselves for the hard truth that our older generation and vulnerable members may not be able to beat the virus. As a immunologist said to me, we'll see a spike in the death rate this year, but a drop in the proceeding years as those people who died in 2020 may have died in the next 2 to 5 years.
South Korea didn't shut down like China and have been touted as flattening the curve through rigorous testing and contact tracing. As it stands, Australia is on a similar path, however stupid shit like the beaches and releasing of cruise line passengers have made it so difficult.
With that all in mind, I think if we continue the economic crash, you will place more people under financial duress which will lead to an increase in suicide rates and poorer health outcomes as financially stressed people can't afford healthy produce and will resort to price point shopping.
I apologise for such a wall of text, but that's my thought train on it not being a simple answer of 'shut her down'.
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