COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Braveheart81]

I guess if we play what a full lockdown looks like; close down for 2 - 4 weeks, open up for 4 - 6 weeks, close down for 2 - 4 weeks (repeat until vaccine comes out). I honestly don't know how someone could operate a business like that between finding staff, getting stock, fulfilling sales etc You're better off keeping some form of consistency and a partial lockdown like we're on now should have been done weeks ago.

People dismiss the economy argument, but we saw the sheer amount of people now needing unemployment benefits. If you constantly add more to it, it's going to make it harder to support those people and provide funding for those Government services such as Health and paying health care workers' wages. Adding more people just makes the spiral harder to come out off.

Health and economy are inextricably linked both in terms of this pandemic and all the time (there is a very strong correlation between wealth and life expectancy).

It seems like a lockdown scenario isn't being reasonably compared with the current situation. Above, you've suggested that lockdown could be 2-4 weeks and then followed up by another 2-4 weeks in a month or month and a half's time and that would be repeated until a vaccine is available.

What is the timeline on the current measures in place?

I went to the local shops briefly this morning and there were a lot of people around. Most looked like they were still acting as if it was situation normal. I have zero faith that people will adhere to the social distancing protocols as strictly as they need to whilst it is not really a legal requirement.

There are so many exemptions and contradictory rules that suggest that it's actually not that bad to be in close-ish proximity with others as long as it is for a business purpose and/or less than 30 minutes in duration.

If you look at the number of Australian cases it is only very recently that cities outside of Sydney and Melbourne have reached the case numbers where things start jumping exponentially. Our doubling time has been shortening, not stretching out and we're a very long way from any indication that the curve could be flattening to the extent that the case numbers won't ultimately overrun our hospitals.

The longer you drag out the requirement to have serious restrictions on economic activity, the worse the economic fallout will be.

The almost certain reality in my opinion is that the numbers will keep rising and stricter measures will be enacted before you get the opportunity to see what impact, if any the current measures are having.

 

[Ignoto]

It seems like a lockdown scenario isn't being reasonably compared with the current situation. Above, you've suggested that lockdown could be 2-4 weeks and then followed up by another 2-4 weeks in a month or month and a half's time and that would be repeated until a vaccine is available.

What is the timeline on the current measures in place?

I'd imagine the current measures (if they aren't made more restrictive) are in place for good. The 'normal' we knew is out of the window for a similar period of until the vaccine is here or until we all have been exposed to it.

There are so many exemptions and contradictory rules that suggest that it's actually not that bad to be in close-ish proximity with others as long as it is for a business purpose and/or less than 30 minutes in duration.

Agreed on that. The communications coming out of the Federal Government has been extremely poor which I think highlights what we were chatting about earlier that they should not be leading this.

Unfortunately, outside of walking the dog or popping into IGA/Coles, I haven't been around the public to make any anecdotal evidence to support or contradict on what's happening in my neck of the woods.

Our doubling time has been shortening, not stretching out and we're a very long way from any indication that the curve could be flattening to the extent that the case numbers won't ultimately overrun our hospitals.

But the modelling is showing that even shortening it today, to 5 days, means you just move the overrun date out by two weeks. Doubling it from 3 to 6 gives you an additional week. So we either increase supply or brace for some tough decisions.

The longer you drag out the requirement to have serious restrictions on economic activity, the worse the economic fallout will be.

Perhaps that's where I'm being naive, but what makes you think that? As I mentioned in my earlier paragraph, a stop start economy doesn't lend itself for growth or sustainability. Pulling on the economy handbrake every few weeks or months can't be conducive for business compared to reduced economy where everyone knows how to operate within it?

 

[Up the Guts]

I guess if we play what a full lockdown looks like; close down for 2 - 4 weeks, open up for 4 - 6 weeks, close down for 2 - 4 weeks (repeat until vaccine comes out). I honestly don't know how someone could operate a business like that between finding staff, getting stock, fulfilling sales etc You're better off keeping some form of consistency and a partial lockdown like we're on now should have been done weeks ago.

People dismiss the economy argument, but we saw the sheer amount of people now needing unemployment benefits. If you constantly add more to it, it's going to make it harder to support those people and provide funding for those Government services such as Health and paying health care workers' wages. Adding more people just makes the spiral harder to come out off.

Simply looking at the numbers, its difficult to even know if you're comparing apples to apples. Plenty of countries could be under reporting through not providing testing.

Unfortunately trying to find 'live/current' tests conducted is hard, the last comprehensive update was 4 days ago - https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#current-covid-19-test-coverage-estimates

But, Australia was the 3rd highest in tests conducted per person (behind UAE and South Korea). South Korea's stats are seen to be the most 'truthful' due to the sheer amount of tests being done, so you get a better picture on what's going on. In an equivalent period, South Korea had 6,284 confirmed cases, Australia is currently at 2,144 with more to come later today. They also had a body count of 44 deaths to our 8. If you take in account their 52 million to our 25 million population and double each; if we come under 3,000 today and 20 deaths then we're either on track or doing a good job.

Now, why I think its important to look at this is, based on the models going around, at current rate, Australia's ICU beds are deemed to be full by April 11, if it goes to 4 days to double its April 18 (Norway) and if we get to South Korea of 5 days to Double its April 25th. - https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/03...uXM94ZqkooxnI6Np6qpaxIB1uNF0BspdDrlz9ZEd-CtLU

So realistically speaking, people should be bracing that peak ICU will happen one way or another and prepare themselves for the hard truth that our older generation and vulnerable members may not be able to beat the virus. As a immunologist said to me, we'll see a spike in the death rate this year, but a drop in the proceeding years as those people who died in 2020 may have died in the next 2 to 5 years.

South Korea didn't shut down like China and have been touted as flattening the curve through rigorous testing and contact tracing. As it stands, Australia is on a similar path, however stupid shit like the beaches and releasing of cruise line passengers have made it so difficult.

With that all in mind, I think if we continue the economic crash, you will place more people under financial duress which will lead to an increase in suicide rates and poorer health outcomes as financially stressed people can't afford healthy produce and will resort to price point shopping.

I apologise for such a wall of text, but that's my thought train on it not being a simple answer of 'shut her down'.

Well said, as I’ve stressed before, all the data say it’s indisputable the economic effects of a full lockdown will cost lives. Those statistics will never be published though in the same way that deaths from COVID-19 will be (despite the fact that 99% of people who have died had underlying conditions).

 

[Braveheart81]

But the modelling is showing that even shortening it today, to 5 days, means you just move the overrun date out by two weeks. Doubling it from 3 to 6 gives you an additional week. So we either increase supply or brace for some tough decisions.

This is why you have to act fast with strict measures. A gradual change in the doubling rate means you'll have a lot of doubles before that is achieved.

Perhaps that's where I'm being naive, but what makes you think that? As I mentioned in my earlier paragraph, a stop start economy doesn't lend itself for growth or sustainability. Pulling on the economy handbrake every few weeks or months can't be conducive for business compared to reduced economy where everyone knows how to operate within it?

There are very few segments of the economy that aren't already severely affected. Even if your business can operate seamlessly without leaving home, many of your customers are likely affected.

There are lots of sectors that have basically ceased to exist (for the time being) overnight.

We know that borders will remain closed for the foreseeable future so you are in a position where if you can get the virus really under control then you can start operating far closer to normal than you are now.

From both the health and economic perspectives, I can't see how whatever path there is back to fairly regular economic activity in the fastest timeframe achieves the best result.

 

[Ignoto]

This is why you have to act fast with strict measures. A gradual change in the doubling rate means you'll have a lot of doubles before that is achieved.

Yeah and that's fair. With most of the current positive tests coming from overseas, why there wasn't a greater emphasis on those international travelers was moronic. The people I know who were O/S from SEA two weeks ago just went home and no-one questioned or tested them.

There are very few segments of the economy that aren't already severely affected. Even if your business can operate seamlessly without leaving home, many of your customers are likely affected.

From both the health and economic perspectives, I can't see how whatever path there is back to fairly regular economic activity in the fastest timeframe achieves the best result.

Agreed 100%.

I don't see any response i.e. no, partial or full lockdown being clear and cut better than the other. All have merits, all have negatives, all have losers and none have winners.

Why we didn't have the top putting in the restrictions we have now 2-4 weeks ago does me in. Businesses went into a sudo social distancing themselves as employees could see the writing on the wall, but Scomo dragged his feet.

 

[Braveheart81]

Yeah and that's fair. With most of the current positive tests coming from overseas, why there wasn't a greater emphasis on those international travelers was moronic. The people I know who were O/S from SEA two weeks ago just went home and no-one questioned or tested them.

Absolutely. The lack of health screening at our airports and for cruise ships has been appalling. It was always going to be the most obvious source of cases and we largely let people through without even temperature checks.

 

[swingpass]

 

[swingpass]

Well said, as I’ve stressed before, all the data say it’s indisputable the economic effects of a full lockdown will cost lives. Those statistics will never be published though in the same way that deaths from COVID-19 will be (despite the fact that 99% of people who have died had underlying conditions).

this is complete bullshit. get your facts straight, older sicker persons die more frequently, but young people 20's, 30's, 40's are also dying. its a hard concept to grasp BUT the only way to slow the impact of the virus on health and the economy is to limit its spread, most Australians are apparently incapable of heeding the simple warning STAY THE FUCK HOME UNLESS ITS ESSENTIAL YOU GO OUT - WORK, MEDICAL VISITS, SHOPPING FOR NECESSITIES- THATS IT. NOTHING ELSE. so thats why we should be implementing a mandated lockdown now, because most of our moronic community still do not get how serious this is.



WebPage.pdf

 

[Pfitzy]

Daily rate of change last week or so:

19/03/2020 - 1.25
20/03/2020 - 1.19
21/03/2020 - 1.27
22/03/2020 - 1.26
23/03/2020 - 1.24
24/03/2020 - 1.22
25/03/2020 - 1.17*

*Finalised figures for today TDB, obviously.

The cruise ship looks to have bumped the numbers actually IN Australia, because lines on a map etc. NSW Health and Borderforce need to share blame for that.

 

[Pfitzy]

Thinking we will go further by the weekend in terms of restrictions. Governments look like they're just trying to get to school holidays at this point.

Lot of confusing messaging going around. I agree with whoever it was said NSW Libs are the better option at the moment - NSW ALP look like a shower of shit.

But the Federal Libs? Fucking hell they are unsupportable right now by all but the most die-hard blue ties.

That goofy dickhead with his name on The Lodge must be thankful he's got 2 years to recover from this, but were I Albo (and thank fuck I'm not), I would be supporting the government for how ever long COVID takes to blow over, then throwing hand grenades every day, hour, minute when those lazy fucks get back to Canberra in August.

 

[RugbyReg]

Thinking we will go further by the weekend in terms of restrictions. Governments look like they're just trying to get to school holidays at this point.

Lot of confusing messaging going around. I agree with whoever it was said NSW Libs are the better option at the moment - NSW ALP look like a shower of shit.

But the Federal Libs? Fucking hell they are unsupportable right now by all but the most die-hard blue ties.

That goofy dickhead with his name on The Lodge must be thankful he's got 2 years to recover from this, but were I Albo (and thank fuck I'm not), I would be supporting the government for how ever long COVID takes to blow over, then throwing hand grenades every day, hour, minute when those lazy fucks get back to Canberra in August.

typical NSW Centric post.

 

[Pfitzy]

typical NSW Centric post.

2 weeks of my teens doing school at home doesn't sound like fun, Reg. I'm just trying to get to school holidays as well!

 

[Brumby Runner]

Health and economy are inextricably linked both in terms of this pandemic and all the time (there is a very strong correlation between wealth and life expectancy).

It seems like a lockdown scenario isn't being reasonably compared with the current situation. Above, you've suggested that lockdown could be 2-4 weeks and then followed up by another 2-4 weeks in a month or month and a half's time and that would be repeated until a vaccine is available.

What is the timeline on the current measures in place?

I went to the local shops briefly this morning and there were a lot of people around. Most looked like they were still acting as if it was situation normal. I have zero faith that people will adhere to the social distancing protocols as strictly as they need to whilst it is not really a legal requirement.

There are so many exemptions and contradictory rules that suggest that it's actually not that bad to be in close-ish proximity with others as long as it is for a business purpose and/or less than 30 minutes in duration.

If you look at the number of Australian cases it is only very recently that cities outside of Sydney and Melbourne have reached the case numbers where things start jumping exponentially. Our doubling time has been shortening, not stretching out and we're a very long way from any indication that the curve could be flattening to the extent that the case numbers won't ultimately overrun our hospitals.

The longer you drag out the requirement to have serious restrictions on economic activity, the worse the economic fallout will be.

The almost certain reality in my opinion is that the numbers will keep rising and stricter measures will be enacted before you get the opportunity to see what impact, if any the current measures are having.

BH, my experience at the shops over this week is quite different. While numbers of shoppers is still quite high, certainly not near the usual. Most people here are keeping a good distance where they can. Queues to the check outs are a whole lot longer but with fewer than usual people in them. One more thing I've noticed is that it is quieter - no groups of people in loud discussion blocking aisles.

 

[Up the Guts]

this is complete bullshit. get your facts straight,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...7-in-a-day-elderly-at-high-risk-idUSKBN2172VL


https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/over-99-of-coronavirus-patients-in-italy-who-died-had-other-illnesses/


I'll accept the apology in advance. I mean, it would have been pretty easy to verify whether my facts were straight before launching into the bullshit line but I'll cut you some slack since the Australian media don't want to report any good news stories.

Oh, and as a little chaser, average age of death in Italy is 79.5.

 

[swingpass]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...7-in-a-day-elderly-at-high-risk-idUSKBN2172VL


https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/over-99-of-coronavirus-patients-in-italy-who-died-had-other-illnesses/


I'll accept the apology in advance. I mean, it would have been pretty easy to verify whether my facts were straight before launching into the bullshit line but I'll cut you some slack since the Australian media don't want to report any good news stories.

Oh, and as a little chaser, average age of death in Italy is 79.5.

you have my apology. in my zeal to get through to people that this affects everyone i misread your statement as 99% of deaths are elderly ie only old people die, not co morbid peeps. so sorry. my underlying thesis remains, people have to stay away from one another. i'm toey because i'm going to be on the front line.

 

[Slim 293]

Well said, as I’ve stressed before, all the data say it’s indisputable the economic effects of a full lockdown will cost lives. Those statistics will never be published though in the same way that deaths from COVID-19 will be (despite the fact that 99% of people who have died had underlying conditions).

OK Alan.........

 

[Up the Guts]

you have my apology. in my zeal to get through to people that this affects everyone i misread your statement as 99% of deaths are elderly ie only old people die, not co morbid peeps. so sorry. my underlying thesis remains, people have to stay away from one another. i'm toey because i'm going to be on the front line.

No worries at all, I probably should have originally linked what is quite an astounding stat. All the best for the work on the frontline, big props to you for putting yourself at risk for others.

 

[Up the Guts]

OK Alan...

Ah, the old 'everyone who disagrees with me is Alan Jones.'

Unlike Alan, everything that I have said in that post is peer-reviewed.

 

[Ignoto]

I should add that Scomo has made another mistake in shutting down all elective surgery's in both the private and public system. Essentially rendering a good chunk of docs, nurses and supporting staff without work. From my discussions with the Orthos and Consultants at the Public Hospitals, they were all under the impression that all elective surgery would be shifted from the public to the private to create more capacity for the public to handle the covid cases.

So not only do you knock them offline and the possibility of sharing the load, having a pause on an already strained elective surgery list will blow out wait times to years. It would have been a good opportunity for the private guys to knock out all elective surgery as well as with a slow economy, these people can have the surgery and recover whilst not worrying about work.

Cyclo may be able to correct me if I'm wrong, but a lot of the day surgeries up here run on thinish margins so I would imagine they would find a 3 - 6 month no work period too hard to handle.

With that all said and done, what about the Private Health Insurance component? If elective surgery is off the table, why would anyone keep it for however long we're closed for.

 

[Lindommer]

Disturbing graph in The Guardian of the increase in infections in Oz. Read here: https://www.theguardian.com/news/da...avirus-are-there-in-australia-live-statistics

Can someone with more technical skills than me put that graph up here on this thread.