COVID-19 Stuff Here

[Tex]

Exactly right. Oxford has just published a new model indicating 50% of those in Britain may have had the virus:

virus https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html

I haven't read it but that's absolutely stunning if true!

All that talk about equating it to the annual flu will be blasted out the window.

My landlord has decided now is the best time to 'progress with small renovations and put the property on the market', with an eviction date of 30 June. Happens to coincide with the anticipated peak of the virus in Aus.

Whatafluffybunny.

Anyway I'm going to cause a ruckus and go to the local MP (Moana Pasifika), jouros etc etc. Whatafluffybunny.

 

[Up the Guts]

I haven't read it but that's absolutely stunning if true!

All that talk about equating it to the annual flu will be blasted out the window.

My landlord has decided now is the best time to 'progress with small renovations and put the property on the market', with an eviction date of 30 June. Happens to coincide with the anticipated peak of the virus in Aus.

Whatafluffybunny.

Anyway I'm going to cause a ruckus and go to the local MP (Moana Pasifika), jouros etc etc. Whatafluffybunny.

If the predictions of their model hold up (i.e. ~50% of the population have had COVID-19) then the fatality rate will be lower than the flu.

Another reason the UK are keen to get widespread antibody testing going is so those who have had it can begin working again.

 

[Slim 293]

Really? The difference between 29 minutes and 43 minutes was going to make a difference?

Er, no.............

Hairdressers are wondering why the fuck they haven't been asked to shutdown:

Last night the hairdresser lobby was begging for the industry to be part of the lockdown.

Approximately 40,000 hairdressers and barbers continue to be at risk following the federal government’s announcement last night to leave hairdressing off its latest COVID-19 shut down list.

In addition, salons are forced to only conduct 30 minute appointments, which is not a viable time frame to conduct most hairdressing services and offer a professional experience for clients.

“This decision is outrageous,” says Australian Hairdressing Council CEO Sandy Chong. “Around 40,000 hairdressers and barbers continue to be at risk of as they are directly exposed to large members of the public. Why beauty was shut down but hairdressing wasn’t, I don’t understand.

“The Fair Work Act, as it stands, makes it costly for businesses if they choose to stand down without the Government’s directive.”

 

[swingpass]

an explanation from David Walsh (MONA) a man who is a maths savant and made his millions outdoing gambling institutions. more reasons to STAY THE FUCK HOME EVERYONE

https://blog.mona.net.au/blog/2020/...9-diary-take-2_general&cmp=1&utm_medium=email

 

[fatprop]

Er, no.....

Hairdressers are wondering why the fuck they haven't been asked to shutdown:

They can shutdown whenever they want, just like most of the CBD shops. They are mostly very small businesses or self employed cutter who rent chairs

But if they choose to open, the rule was dumb

In addition, salons are forced to only conduct 30 minute appointments, which is not a viable time frame to conduct most hairdressing services and offer a professional experience for clients.

 

[Up the Guts]

an explanation from David Walsh (MONA) a man who is a maths savant and made his millions outdoing gambling institutions. more reasons to STAY THE FUCK HOME EVERYONE

https://blog.mona.net.au/blog/2020/...9-diary-take-2_general&cmp=1&utm_medium=email

The problem with all these numbers is that they start from testing data subject to large selection biases. As I posted above, we can’t make accurate predictions about infection/fatality rates until we get widespread anti-body testing but for now more and more modelling seems to be telling us that the virus is more rampant in the community than expected and fatality and hospitalisation rates are thus, to quote Stanford, ‘orders of magnitude too high.’

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

They can shutdown whenever they want, just like most of the CBD shops. They are mostly very small businesses or self employed cutter who rent chairs

But if they choose to open, the rule was dumb

It's not that simple. If they close without cause they aren't likely to be eligible for any of the government subsidies and proposed rent relief packages. And I'm not speculating here. My mom (a hardresser) and her business partner have received just this advice.

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

Exactly right. Oxford has just published a new model indicating 50% of those in Britain may have had the virus:

virus https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html


Meanwhile, over at Stanford, they are also suggesting that death rates are orders of magnitude too high:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

The UK are gearing up to mass distribute antibody tests which will detect whether the virus has been present in your system at all. Only then we will start to get real data on infection/death rates. Until then everyone is completely flying blind.

I most certainly hope those numbers turn out to be true and the widespread testing proves that the fatality numbers are wildly over blown. But until then we can only take what is currently available.

 

[Up the Guts]

I most certainly hope those numbers turn out to be true and the widespread testing proves that the fatality numbers are wildly over blown. But until then we can only take what is currently available.

Making social policy on unreliable data is never a good way to run society.

 

[swingpass]

The problem with all these numbers is that they start from testing data subject to large selection biases. As I posted above, we can’t make accurate predictions about infection/fatality rates until we get widespread anti-body testing but for now more and more modelling seems to be telling us that the virus is more rampant in the community than expected and fatality and hospitalisation rates are thus, to quote Stanford, ‘orders of magnitude too high.’

agree that the real number of people infected with SARS-COV-2 may be way too low and so the actual fatality rate could be way way less, what isn't being underestimated is the actual numbers of people with the disease COVID-19 and its complications and the numbers of people actually dying. and again even if the fatality rate is an order of magnitude below what is currently quoted, the fewer people who get infected the fewer who will die. simple. so stay home peeps.

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

2 weeks of my teens doing school at home doesn't sound like fun, Reg. I'm just trying to get to school holidays as well!

My sister in law is homeschooling my two nieces at the moment. Everything so far seems to be going surprisingly well. Both girls finished their weeks worth of work yesterday. Helped by the fact my sister in law is just about to finish her Masters of Education (after working in Finance and holding a Bachelor of Science (Bio-Medical Eng.) and a Bachelor of Engineering (Electrical)) but still. You could be surprised.

 

[fatprop]

agree that the real number of people infected with SARS-COV-2 may be way too low and so the actual fatality rate could be way way less, what isn't being underestimated is the actual numbers of people with the disease COVID-19 and its complications and the numbers of people actually dying. and again even if the fatality rate is an order of magnitude below what is currently quoted, the fewer people who get infected the fewer who will die. simple. so stay home peeps.

Yeah, there is an article in the WSJ about this (can't see the full article)

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/coronavirus-deadly-they-say

"Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate — 2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, 2 million to 4 million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases."
"The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills 2 million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far."

We will see when the antibody testing kicks off

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

agree that the real number of people infected with SARS-COV-2 may be way too low and so the actual fatality rate could be way way less, what isn't being underestimated is the actual numbers of people with the disease COVID-19 and its complications and the numbers of people actually dying. and again even if the fatality rate is an order of magnitude below what is currently quoted, the fewer people who get infected the fewer who will die. simple. so stay home peeps.

This. I would much rather look back and think. "Wow, we really did overreact there" rather than "we didn't move fast enough". If the Oxford thesis is correct then I'd happily welcome being wrong. In fact, I actually want it to be correct. But it actually has to be proven first. Until then you have to go off what we've seen in terms of case loads and studies on the virus. All of which suggest we should be taking the uptmost measures now and not later.

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

Yeah, there is an article in the WSJ about this (can't see the full article)

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/coronavirus-deadly-they-say




We will see when the antibody testing kicks off

If I were Morrison I'd be sourcing these anti-body tests pronto. Being able to test millions of people quickly and prove that he hasn't moved too slowly at every stage will provide him with a far more substantial case to argue.

 

[swingpass]

the Doherty Institute and WEHI in Melbourne are currently working on an antibody test also.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

NZ's first confirmed case was on 28 Feb. As of today's MoH briefing there are 262 confirmed & 21 probable cases but still no fatalities. Does that mean we've "gotten ahead of the curve" or is it just to early for people to be dying over here?

EDIT: wifey & I are both in essential businesses (her: supermarket, me: building supplies (but only for four hours a day & only to tradies working on essential infrastructure projects e.g. the local hospital upgrade or emergencies e.g. some prick ram-raids a liquor store & it needs binding up)).

We're both going to work (she rather more reluctantly than me on account of the fact she's more exposed to potentially infected people) for the time being but if (or is that when?) people start dying we'll obviously be reconsidering. Again I'm in the better position as I have three & a bit weeks of annual leave owing plus our parent company is topping up my wages until 3 April. But if this thing drags out beyond late April we're gonna be struggling.

 

[Teh Other Dave]

NZ's first confirmed case was on 28 Feb. As of today's MoH briefing there are 262 confirmed & 21 probable cases but still no fatalities. Does that mean we've "gotten ahead of the curve" or is it just to early for people to be dying over here?

So many variables, including who gets tested, how many days post 100 confirmed positives (day 1), who was infected.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^ I think we hit 100 on Monday or Tuesday of this week.

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

Making social policy on unreliable data is never a good way to run society.

What I would like for it to explain is why we are seeing the levels of hospitalisations and deaths we've been seeing in Italy and Spain if it's as relatively harmless as the thesis suggests.

 

[Teh Other Dave]

So about a 3-day doubling time. On face value it's on par with Australia, but again there's a tonne of other variables at play. I just hope the measures in place over there are effective, and the human costs are limited. Stay safe guys.