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Pumas vs Wallabies - Sunday 9th October @ Twickenham

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wamberal

Phil Kearns (64)
England started planning for the 2003 RWC years ahead by sending a team of nobodies, including one Jonny Wilkinson, out here on tour and got thrashed by something like 60 points at Brisbane iirc.


That was a very long range plan, because that game was part of the "Tour from Hell" which took place in 1998. So they were not interested in being competitive in 1999? Or was it just as it was reported, a lot of injuries amongst the more seasoned players?
 

KOB1987

Rod McCall (65)
England started planning for the 2003 RWC years ahead by sending a team of nobodies, including one Jonny Wilkinson, out here on tour and got thrashed by something like 60 points at Brisbane iirc.

You meant the 'Tour from Hell' in 1998 from which 4 squad members went on to remain part of the England team in 2003? Most of the rest were never heard of again, either their confidence was completely shattered, they got injured irreparably, or they just simply weren't good enough in the first place. That's the point that those in the 'against' corner are making with regards to rushing young players through the system.

Yeah, nah. That had nothing to do with the 2003 World Cup, in hindsight the 4 players that made it through probably benefited from the experience, but what was the collateral damage and it certainly wasn't planned that way.
 
T

TOCC

Guest
The 1998 tour was England's first major tour to the Southern Hemisphere since the game turned professional, at the time the Club vs Country issue in England was a big one since the players were now employees of the clubs. Many of the the more experienced guys were denied releases by the club, so a rookie team was sent instead.
 

wamberal

Phil Kearns (64)
Some good young players were on that tour, it is a wonder they survived, physically, and psychologically!

Any coach who tried something similar today would get the sack, and would deserve to.
 

USARugger

John Thornett (49)
Itoje is a poor example for making the argument to blood young players in test rugby for the sake of them being young players. He was by all means a very developed professional rugby player by the time he ever stepped foot into an England camp.

If anything it was a slower blooding process through the England U18, U20 setups (which are much better than what Australia has going on at that tier of play right now) and finally the premiership before he was selected in an England squad. He was outstandingly dominant at the lower levels over a course of years and then continued this form through his time in the Premiership.

How many of these young Australian players can you say that for? How many of them dominated their international opposition throughout their U18-20s careers and then carried that dominant level of performance through seasons of Super Rugby? How many were leading a nearly undefeated team at his age, completely on merit and ability?

He's one of the best young forwards of any generation to date (so by all means a huge outlier) and even then was not just thrown into senior test rugby because he had a few good moments over the course of one domestic season.

Itoje was all but a surefire thing when it came to test rugby and those types of players are not the norm regardless of age.

Even the All Blacks blood players at all kinds of ages - you can see this happening right now. Let's look at the guys they've blooded into the squad since May of this year:

Ofa Tu'ungafasi - 24 (Pro since 2012 - 26 caps for Auckland, 42 caps for Blues)
Elliot Dixon - 27 (Pro since 2010 - 56 caps for Southland, 65 caps for Highlanders)
Ardie Savea - 22 (Pro since 2012 - 31 caps for Wellington, 49 caps for Hurricanes)
Liam Squire - 25 (Pro since 2011 - 38 caps for Tasman, 14 caps for Chiefs, 13 caps for Highlanders)
Seta Tamanivalu - 24 (Pro since 2012 - 37 caps for Taranaki, 22 caps for Chiefs)
Damian McKenzie - 21 (Pro since 2014 - 21 caps Waikato, 33 caps Chiefs)

None of these guys are teenagers and in fact they all have pretty considerable experience with top flight rugby already. All of these guys played ITM for 2+ seasons, a competition that is frankly better than anything Australia has to offer young players at that level/age right now. They all played at least 2+ seasons for Super Rugby franchises which are far more successful than their Australian counterparts in general (with the exception of Blues) and regularly produce more well-rounded and skillful players than our franchises have in recent years.

These guys are getting blooded into the ABs at a point in their careers where they are simply ready for it - on an individual level their players are just better than ours and that's largely down to more regular exposure to a higher level of competition beginning at a young age. Even after being blooded their involvement in the side is methodically managed until they've done enough to lock down a jersey of their own.

The AB's are able to blood these younger guys because their succession planning is better than ours, their players are better than ours, and their sub-Super Rugby competitions are better than ours.

Absolutely none of them are thrown in just because they are a promising young player at the beginning of a RWC cycle, there's far more that goes into it. The same must be said for the Wallabies, for these young players to be successfully integrated into the side a similar approach must be (and in many ways is) used. Where we seem to fall short is that our players still have some pretty glaring issues and faults in their games and this largely boils down to a relative lack of high-level competition exposure for many of them at younger ages (we're just really coming into the generation of players who will be moving up after multiple seasons of NRC exposure before Super Rugby/Test rugby), issues with skill development amongst these same players, and a lack of depth in Australian rugby overall.

This isn't even to mention how wildly different the demands on the bodies of young players are in Union v. League (or a comparatively powderpuff game like AFL for fucks sake) simply due to the fact that rucking is a part of our sport. Putting a guy in before he's reached physical maturity can have far bigger repercussions in Union due to the nature and frequency of the contact in the sport - and not every player matures at the same rate.

The only way to properly manage the involvement of young players in Australian rugby for the Wallabies right now is on a very individual basis and not because of some sweeping generalizations about how the All Blacks, the Bulldogs, or anyone else does it. We have our own unique obstacles to overcome in this department.
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
Great post USARugger. People like to suggest that Itoje would have been held back in Australian rugby because he is a bit of a 'notta'. I think that is rubbish because he is obviously amazingly good and could have debuted sooner.

The reality is we haven't had any players of that calibre in recent years.

Kellaway is the last player who was obviously world class from an early age.

Sent from my HTC_PN071 using Tapatalk
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
To follow on from USARugger's post, let's compare that to the Wallaby debutants this year.

Rory Arnold - 25 (pro since 2013, 30 Super Rugby caps, some Currie Cup for Griquas)
Dane Haylett-Petty - 26 (pro since 2008, 43 Super Rugby caps, 52 games for Biarittz)
Samu Kerevi - 22 (pro since 2014, 31 Super Rugby caps)
Nick Frisby - 23 (pro since 2012, 53 Super Rugby caps)
Adam Coleman - 24 (pro since 2013, 39 Super Rugby caps)
Allan Ala'alatoa 22 (pro since 2014, 29 Super Rugby caps)
Reece Hodge - 22 (pro since 2016, 12 Super Rugby caps)
Tom Robertson - 22 (pro since 2016, 13 Super Rugby caps)
Lopeti Timani - 25 (pro since 2012, 48 Super Rugby caps)
Sefa Naivalu - 24 (pro since 2015, 23 Super Rugby caps)

(Ages are at the date of debut. A lot of these players are now a year older.

Note that the total games is from a variety of sources and is most likely slightly out.)

If anything we are debuting test players at a younger average age than the All Blacks. The level of "first class" experience is variable but generally matches age.

It's hard to say from that list that we're doing anything particularly wrong either by holding players back or pushing them too far, too fast.

Ideally we just need to increase the average quality of the players. I think that comes directly from players being involved in more higher quality games from a younger age. Prior to that test debut we need more games at higher levels whether it is Super Rugby or NRC.

The NRC becoming more important in terms of the players' season is a key part of that. If you compare to the ITM Cup it's a place where elite players expect to shine and players looking to break into Super Rugby consistently have strong impacts on games.
 

KOB1987

Rod McCall (65)
^^^^ shit, DHP has some experience, I knew he played in France but I didn't realise he had that many caps. I think it's fair to say that the delay in his emergence in gold has close to zero to do with Michael cheika.

Relative to the kiwi debutantes hodge and Robertson are very inexperienced.

The rest are about on par with the kiwis in terms of first grade experience.

Good post BH.
 

Dalai Ninja

Ward Prentice (10)
Maybe it's time to cast the net outside of Australia, although I freely admit I have always been a strong advocate for an Australian to coach the national team.

You obviously are happy with the way the team is moving forward, the win/loss ratios.

I am not and am happy to ask the hard question as opposed to just sitting on the fence saying globally, we have real problems.

Bravely blaming the usual suspects isn't asking the hard questions, but a way of avoiding them. Everyone who would do things differently if they were the coach (which is usually most people, because they aren't professional rugby coaches, and thus basically have No Inkling) blames the coach.

I quite like watching people in all kind of skilful professions do their stuff on TV, preferably in high-risk situations where they might easily fail, and then fulminate angrily on the Internet about how they're doing the 'wrong thing', using their failure as evidence for my theories. This is how my acclaimed method of doing brain surgery using three ferrets and a ukelele came into existence.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Can anyone tell me what's with the now routine "one to be omitted" Wobs bench? If there's an injury concern within the XV or the 23, bracket players like back in the old days. If not, just name your freakin' bench already! Seriously, does anyone think the other guys have someone waiting to find out if, say, Fardy draws the short straw whereupon the coach says "righto, guys, we're gunna scrap everything we've been doing this week & do something different 'cos the Wobs have left Fardy out"? Really?

To me it's just mind games bullshit of the John Hart/ John Mitchell/ Robbie Deans varieties & as we all know, that only works for so long before the players work out what's going on & get the shits.

Similarly, barring multiple injuries, how can you possibly burn through so many locking duos? How can you be nine Tests into a season & not know who you best combo are? Even rotating three or four guys makes more sense than what TGC is doing which, again, seems to me to be more mind games than anything else. I wouldn't be at all surprised if e.g. Simmons said "fuck this, I'm out" after being dropped three times in nine games.
 

Dalai Ninja

Ward Prentice (10)
Even rotating three or four guys makes more sense than what TGC is doing which, again, seems to me to be more mind games than anything else.
Injuries excepted, he has been rotating four guys. There is almost nothing between Simmons, Douglas, Coleman and Arnold. Six of the seven combinations have been combinations of those four players.
 

KOB1987

Rod McCall (65)
Even rotating three or four guys makes more sense than what TGC is doing which, again, seems to me to be more mind games than anything else. I wouldn't be at all surprised if e.g. Simmons said "fuck this, I'm out" after being dropped three times in nine games.
Isn't rotating 3 or 4 guys what he's doing? Coleman seems to be the constant and Simmons, Douglas and Arnold are being rotated. I might be wrong. He said a few weeks ago it's about building depth, I don't know any different to argue otherwise, do you?

The bench thing irritates the best of us, not sure what that's about. I'm guessing it's more to do with the split than the actual personnel but I agree, it achieves nothing.
 

Dalai Ninja

Ward Prentice (10)
You meant the 'Tour from Hell' in 1998 from which 4 squad members went on to remain part of the England team in 2003?
Ouch.

76-0 in Brisbane. Some of the England players never made if off the pitch. Bones and scraps of crinkly England shell-suit are still being unearthed to this day.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Injuries excepted, he has been rotating four guys. There is almost nothing between Simmons, Douglas, Coleman and Arnold. Six of the seven combinations have been combinations of those four players.

Yes but it's not like any of them have played so many consecutive games they're in need of a break to prevent burnout, or to rest a niggling injury, is it? Love to see the total minutes played by Simmons, Douglas, Coleman & Arnold. Of a possible 640 I'd be surprised if anyone has yet racked up much more than 500.

EDIT: TRC 2016: MINUTES PLAYED (POSSIBLE = 400)

Douglas 275
Coleman 257
Simmons 174
Arnold 46

c.f.

Whitelock 353
Retallick 340
Etzebeth 390

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/statscentre.cfm
 

KOB1987

Rod McCall (65)
c.f.

Whitelock 353
Retallick 340
Etzebeth 390

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/statscentre.cfm
You're not rotating players though and nor should you. The only rotation Coetzee has made is from realizing he fucked up by selecting de jager in the first place so of course etzebeth has the most minutes.

I actually like what Cheika is doing with the locks, from a statistical perspective there is no clear standout so it makes sense to generate some competition within the group.
 

Dalai Ninja

Ward Prentice (10)
Yes but it's not like any of them have played so many consecutive games they're in need of a break to prevent burnout, or to rest a niggling injury, is it? Love to see the total minutes played by Simmons, Douglas, Coleman & Arnold. Of a possible 640 I'd be surprised if anyone has yet racked up much more than 500.

EDIT: TRC 2016: MINUTES PLAYED (POSSIBLE = 400)

Douglas 275
Coleman 257
Simmons 174
Arnold 46

c.f.

Whitelock 353
Retallick 340
Etzebeth 390

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/statscentre.cfm

What's wrong with that? We're rotating four players. The thing that prevents them from each playing the same number of minutes as locks from teams that aren't is arithmetic.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Stirling Mortlock (74)
You're not rotating players though and nor should you. The only rotation Coetzee has made is from realizing he fucked up by selecting de jager in the first place so of course etzebeth has the most minutes.

I actually like what Cheika is doing with the locks, from a statistical perspective there is no clear standout so it makes sense to generate some competition within the group.

What's wrong with that? We're rotating four players. The thing that prevents them from each playing the same number of minutes as locks from teams that aren't is arithmetic.

I bow to Straya's competition leading lineout success rate, also the awesomeness of the collective ball-carrying, ruck involvement & general around-the-park play of said locks............. and shall henceforth desist from calling "bullshit" & instead acknowledge the brilliance of TGC's lock picking which truly puts Hourini to shame on a weekly basis.
 
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mst

Peter Johnson (47)
USARugger & Braveheart.

Your post are great and in part I agree with where you are coming from and what you are saying.

But in reality we cant do a side by side comparison to the Kiwis as their succession planning and depth are far greater than ours and skews the comparison.

The reality is we are the equivalent of a generation, if not more behind.

They have a waiting list that as their first candidates in the mid 20's waiting for opportunity (as per your lists above), then the new blood is early 20's and the emerging talent is late teens.

We are looking for guys right now to step up and there is a void. Our next gen is low 20's to late teens, and we are looking at school boys as the next best options. Its incomparable.

In a perfect world your points are inarguable.

But we don't have that luxury and unless we take some chances, expedite the process and accept that there will be casualties in the process until we can effectively generation jump and produce a player surplus we are consigning ourselves to the same fate for the foreseeable future. However with the decline in participation and poor results its its plausible that the approach may be what "breeds" us out of players and a professional sport.

Its also why things like the Giteau rule, outside of RWC years is so damaging IMHO.

Re the England 1998 - I get where BR is coming from. It was a watershed moment for England and changed their game for ever. It identified 4 warriors, exposed those not good enough, and highlighted the importance of the players left behind due to club commitments (not being released) all in one tour.

Its been a long time since we had RWC success and IIRC. we have been bridesmaids to 3 nations that have suffered a horror story on the way to success and learned the lessons.

Maybe our fear of failure is so big it equally stop us from taking risks as well as hold us back from success.

Since 1999 we have been consistently average. There are no trophy's for that.

The plight of the Wallabies is best captured by asking a simple question of what need to improve. Most will say the overall performance as its not small or singular issues anymore, its all over team performance problem.

A mini version of England 1998 perhaps? Simply the wrong cattle?
 

Dalai Ninja

Ward Prentice (10)
I bow to Straya's competition leading lineout success rate, also the awesomeness of the collective ball-carrying, ruck involvement & general around-the-park play of said locks..... and shall henceforth desist from calling "bullshit" & instead acknowledge the brilliance of TGC's lock picking which truly puts Hourini to shame on a weekly basis.

Mate, you're all over the shop.

First you had a crack at the number of locking combinations we've played as being "mind games bullshit" while saying that "Even rotating three or four guys makes more sense than what TGC is doing".

When told that we were in fact rotating four players (having presumably failed to realise that four players yield six pairs in combination) you then took a set against that, claiming that "not like any of them have played so many consecutive games they're in need of a break to prevent burnout", implying that managing workload is some form of godless Michael Cheika invention.

Now, when challenged on that, you're having some kind of whiny, passive-aggressive gloat.

You're like an old queen at a country barbecue.

[That lock-picking crack was pretty good though. I'll borrow that if I may. ;)]
 
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