Rebels 2018

[lou75]

thanks Jamie from NSW - looks like they still haven't been able to get those jerseys done - we are half way through the season, so it might be time for an announcement - before we lose a game to those pesky New Zealanders !!

 

[Tex]

Just quietly fellow Mexicans, how good is not losing for a couple weeks? Uncharted waters for this long-suffering tragic.

 

[KevinO]

Just quietly fellow Mexicans, how good is not losing for a couple weeks? Uncharted waters for this long-suffering tragic.

It is nice when we don't have to face Kiwi abuse for the first few weeks of the season. Seems WF abuse is starting to ease too.

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[Tex]

Mate, just basking in the glow of not sucking is enough for me. Bring on the next match at home!

 

[KevinO]

So anyone had a look at some of the stats from the Brumbies game? Everything says the Brumbies should have won.

Rebels only had 42% (37% for the second half) of Possession and won by 23 points, imagine we had 50-60%.

Made 159 tackles at 86%, the backs had 60 of those tackles.

English 22 tackles (Equal game high with RHP)

JD 12 tackles (Alot for a aussie flyhalf)

Sefa had 3 runs for 83 meters (Get him the ball more)

 

[Tex]

Yeah but one of Sefa's runs involved him getting white line fever and butchering a sure try. JD's tackling has been noticeably improved - I used to look away when he was in the line.

 

[KevinO]

Wings always have white line fever, that's why us props always hated trying to run support for them. (Nothing to do with speed, everyone knows a prop has superman speed if it means getting a meat pie)

 

[James Pettifer]

So anyone had a look at some of the stats from the Brumbies game? Everything says the Brumbies should have won.

Rebels only had 42% (37% for the second half) of Possession and won by 23 points, imagine we had 50-60%.

Made 159 tackles at 86%, the backs had 60 of those tackles.

English 22 tackles (Equal game high with RHP)

JD 12 tackles (Alot for a aussie flyhalf)

Sefa had 3 runs for 83 meters (Get him the ball more)

Possession isn't a great stat really. If you score in a couple of phases or from turnover ball then you may have a lot less possession than the team that is just going nowhere slowly

But worse than that. Brumbies had
- more Metres - 506 to 498
- More defenders beaten - 25 to 12
- More offloads - 8 to 4
- Less missed tackles - 12 to 25
- Less penalties - 8 to 13
- better tackle success 89.4% to 86.4%
- less tackles made 159 to 102

And were somehow utterly crushed

 

[Tex]

As you say, possession and to a lesser extent, stats, don't always tell the full story. Rebels applied great pressure and as good as the Ruru and Maddocks tries were, the ball did bounce our way for both.

 

[Derpus]

So anyone had a look at some of the stats from the Brumbies game? Everything says the Brumbies should have won.

Rebels only had 42% (37% for the second half) of Possession and won by 23 points, imagine we had 50-60%.

Made 159 tackles at 86%, the backs had 60 of those tackles.

English 22 tackles (Equal game high with RHP)

JD 12 tackles (Alot for a aussie flyhalf)

Sefa had 3 runs for 83 meters (Get him the ball more)

Sounds like you are reading the stats of a thoroughly convincing All Blacks win over the Wallabies.

 

[Rebels3]

Possession isn't a great stat really. If you score in a couple of phases or from turnover ball then you may have a lot less possession than the team that is just going nowhere slowly

But worse than that. Brumbies had
- more Metres - 506 to 498
- More defenders beaten - 25 to 12
- More offloads - 8 to 4
- Less missed tackles - 12 to 25
- Less penalties - 8 to 13
- better tackle success 89.4% to 86.4%
- less tackles made 159 to 102

And were somehow utterly crushed

Summary of the game is best summed up in metres divided by tackles

Rebels 498 / 102 =4.8m
Brums 506 / 159 = 3.2m

I actually hate the tackle % stat, i have played in teams where the 12 inparticular would miss 3/4 tackles a game but was the best defender on the park. Their line speed dictates the speed for the rest of the team, narrows the field by jamming the opposition inside (usually where they miss a tackle but player has to step back inside to avoid contact/ball doesn't go wide = job well done). Also prioritizing the contact over the completion. Would much rather win 60% of the contact zone with 75% completion than 85% completion and only 45% contact zone. Line speed and contact zone also lead to dramatically more forced errors. Problem is you come against a team that can hold their own in the contact, a good kicking game and or an outside/inside centre that can get on the outside of their man and you are in a world of hurt.

 

[half]

Summary of the game is best summed up in metres divided by tackles

Rebels 498 / 102 =4.8m
Brums 506 / 159 = 3.2m

I actually hate the tackle % stat, i have played in teams where the 12 inparticular would miss 3/4 tackles a game but was the best defender on the park. Their line speed dictates the speed for the rest of the team, narrows the field by jamming the opposition inside (usually where they miss a tackle but player has to step back inside to avoid contact/ball doesn't go wide = job well done). Also prioritizing the contact over the completion. Would much rather win 60% of the contact zone with 75% completion than 85% completion and only 45% contact zone. Line speed and contact zone also lead to dramatically more forced errors. Problem is you come against a team that can hold their own in the contact, a good kicking game and or an outside/inside centre that can get on the outside of their man and you are in a world of hurt.

What these stats never tell you is where on the field. 10 yards out from your line you play differently to 10 yards from the oppositions try line.

Also the effect of a couple of poor calls by the "Blind & Death " [rugby ref]. Would add if you have been under the pump a while and you get the ball, its often keep the ball and have a wee time to suck in a bit of air.

 

[Proud Pig]

As the old adage goes there are lies, damn lies and statistics. The game on Friday showed this as well as any.
The Brumbies had a lot of the ball but simply had no plan with what to do with it.
The Rebels defense was up in the line quickly, occasionally a little too quickly leading to penalties.
What this speed in defense can also lead to though is a higher chance to miss a tackle as the defensive player is charging up rather than waiting for the attacking player to come to them. It can and did also create turnovers which went 18 to 7 in the Rebels favor.
The Rebels were more efficient in attack than the Brumbies who were ponderous when they had the ball and rarely did anything that truly penetrated the Rebels line defense. The Rebels also appeared to bend the line more on attack and generally looked a lot more dangerous all game.
The reality is that the only stat that is truly conclusive is points scored versus points conceded.

 

[Strewthcobber]

The studies show that the teams that kick the ball more or steal more lineouts have a better chance of winning.

Teams that pass the ball more correlate with losing.

No other stat, including possession, seems to make much meaningful change to a chance of winning or losing

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[lou75]

Hey Kevin it must be two weeks now since you posted news of a potential sponsor - come on, don't leave me hanging here, I am really excited. And by the way, it is three games since that big announcement of the announcement.(Reds, Sunwolves, Brumbies)

 

[Tomikin]

So anyone had a look at some of the stats from the Brumbies game? Everything says the Brumbies should have won.

Rebels only had 42% (37% for the second half) of Possession and won by 23 points, imagine we had 50-60%.

Made 159 tackles at 86%, the backs had 60 of those tackles.

English 22 tackles (Equal game high with RHP)

JD 12 tackles (Alot for a aussie flyhalf)

Sefa had 3 runs for 83 meters (Get him the ball more)

I will say one of Sefa's runs a was about 60 metres where Banks run him down and put him over the side line.. States like that are miss leading

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[Pone's Mullet]

Strong team for Waratahs

1. Tetera Faulkner
2. Anaru Rangi
3. Jermaine Ainsley
4. Matt Philip
5. Adam Coleman (c)
6. Lopeti Timani
7. Ross Haylett-Petty
8. Amanaki Mafi
9. Will Genia
10. Jack Debreczeni
11. Marika Koroibete
12. Reece Hodge
13. Tom English
14. Jack Maddocks
15. Dane Haylett-Petty

Reserves:

1. Mahe Vailanu
2. Ben Daley
3. Sam Talakai
4. Colby Fainga’a
5. Richard Hardwick
6. Michael Ruru
7. Billy Meakes
8. Sefa Naivalu

 

[Braveheart81]

So anyone had a look at some of the stats from the Brumbies game? Everything says the Brumbies should have won.

Rebels only had 42% (37% for the second half) of Possession and won by 23 points, imagine we had 50-60%.

Made 159 tackles at 86%, the backs had 60 of those tackles.

English 22 tackles (Equal game high with RHP)

JD 12 tackles (Alot for a aussie flyhalf)

Sefa had 3 runs for 83 meters (Get him the ball more)

I think stats can be misleading in a one sided match like that. If the Brumbies attack had been better rather than lots of phases going nowhere they would have scored more points making the game closer and had less possession.

Likewise if the Rebels had faced stauncher defence in the second half they wouldn't have had so little possession.

 

[upthereds#!]

Wow - no hiding Wessels tactics. That is a monster back row. Then you got the high speed tyros off the bench. I'm a big fan of the bash up up first, then tear through them later.

Forget the breakdown for the main part, concentrate on purely dominating the collision and stay on your feet to do it again and again.

 

[Mr Wobbly]

Great to see another Vic player in line to make a debut.