Be warned, recent success may blind Wallabies to dangers
It is scant reward for such a heady performance, but the Wallabies must disown the satisfaction they gained from the Tri Nations decider in Brisbane, in deed and not just in word if they want to win the World Cup. There is only false comfort in basking in its glow. No silverware is unwelcome after a fallow period, but when the story of 2011 is being written, any success that is not accompanied by the lifting the Webb Ellis Trophy on October 23 will be revealed to have been illusory. Much better to be going into this tournament preoccupied by your own weaknesses, rather than enamoured by your own strengths.
In truth, the Wallabies and All Blacks have overplayed each other in recent times, partly in pursuit of the dollar. Familiarity has allowed the losers to quickly close the gap and make the necessary adjustments for next time round. It is not easy to identify where exactly they stand in the world order.
The birthplace of their current and wonderful renaissance was in Christchurch last year, where the Wallabies secured a mountain of possession but lacked a cutting edge and lost 20-10 - Quade Cooper was serving a suspension, somewhat ironically for a tackle that had gone wrong. In their next game, in Sydney, the All Blacks got out of jail, sneaking home 23-22 on the backs of Kieran Read and Richie McCaw. Then came Hong Kong. Subsequently, an irreverent website set up a clock that gleefully and wittily recorded the months of Wallabies 'domination' over the All Blacks until their next meeting. In the meantime the Reds were writing their own remarkable story in Super Rugby. The combination of results raised hopes that the balance of power had shifted.
Instead, all the praise and exuberance merely incubated a flaw in these Wallabies that will be fatal if it cannot be eradicated, wasting all that huge promise. This young side, with the second most youthful captain in the tournament (only the Welsh are led by a younger man, the 22-year-old Sam Warburton being four years James Horwill's junior), has a tendency to get ahead of itself, monstered 30-14 by the angry All Blacks in Auckland in early August and similarly dismantled 35-18 by the English at Twickenham last year two weeks after Hong Kong. How Robbie Deans must wish he could bottle the anger and resentment of narrow defeat that so often proceeds his side's best performances. The All Blacks turned up in Brisbane sated by Bledisloe I, and were blown away in the first half. The 'psychological advantage' argument might exist, but not in the way previously imagined. The beaten team has been the one stirred to greater heights.
But the Wallabies are well served by having Deans at the helm. There has been certain cruel voyeurism in watching him and his All Blacks counterpart Graham Henry in the coaches' box over the past four years - we are invited to look on at precisely when they are at their most vulnerable, shifting in their seats as the moments that will decide their very legacies are played out in front of them. But it has also been enlightening. The pair - more commonly known for being parsimonious with their feelings - are at their most expressive with each missed opportunity, playing each dropped pass, wincing at an incorrect option, or wondering how the referee had just missed such an apparently blatant illegality. These are the reactions of men who know that points left uncollected will come back to haunt them, all too aware of their own side's vulnerabilities and weak points. The Wallabies' pre-World scrum camps were no accident.
Deans the realist knows his tight five still lacks the collective brutality of the Kiwis, English or Springboks at their most enraged, his goalkicking options are as uncertain as the events surrounding their shared night out in Paris, and he has a five-eighth whose wildly undisciplined worst imperils all the good work around him. Progress has been made on some fronts but not all. The introduction of Dan Vickerman and Radike Samo has provided size and maturity. Ben Alexander and Sekope Kepu's diligence to their main job - pushing hard - has been laudable. But the midfield is a work in progress and it is worth asking if Cooper's position at fullback on defence has robbed Kurtley Beale of counter-attacking possibilities.
Of course, all teams arrive with significant question marks. There are as many reasons to doubt each team can win it as evidence they can. But for the Wallabies, the rewards of correcting these flaws is so tantalising because they have the players to take the tournament away from any team if they are permitted to play. It is not often you get blessed with a Will Genia, whose rare combination of intelligence, composure and - crucially - pace merit all the accolades that have flowed his way this year. You can't win the World Cup without a special player. They have finishers to complement him and a No.7 in David Pocock who can go toe to toe with McCaw and Heinrich Brussow.
The All Blacks would relish Australia in the final if Genia is not there. Not that history suggests that event will happen. The IRB rankings have much more credibility than their discredited FIFA counterparts, but Rugby World Cups have regularly made a mockery of those entering the tournament as the supposed two best sides in the world. In essence, there is too much quality elsewhere and too many imponderables to contemplate this year's final doubling as Bledisloe III just yet.
Just quietly, their coach is bound for the exit door, but the French have been displaying periods of muscular dynamism in their backs as well as forwards in the build-up games.
And it does not take a mathematician to work out how may things could go wrong off the field when you assemble a group of 30 oversized young men - with young mens' appetites, and thirsts - and plonk them on an island for up to two months. Here, the Australians have form. No wonder management is happy to let them tweet. Better that than other forms of recreation.
Fortunately, the Wallabies have been presented with an excellent early opportunities in their opening group C encounters - against Italy and Ireland - to work on their possible Achilles heels and build on the best bits from the Tri Nations. The Italians will be rigorous up front if maddeningly limited in their broader game plan. But they have the players to test the legitimacy of advancements in Australian forward play. Ireland, injury-prone and unconvincing in their preparation, will pray for the rain that will allow them to take the Munster approach. Both tests are welcome.
It is a matter of some amusement that the name of tight-head Martin Castrogiovanni's name was excluded on recent dispatches about alleged repeated cheating, but the Wallabies will be keenly aware of the special challenges the Caveman-like figure produces at scrum time. There will be further hairs planted on the chests of the Wallabies' front-row club if they can deal with Castrogiovanni's antics at the set-piece without resort to the referee. The All Blacks had them creaking in the latter parts of each Bledisloe Test - a New Zealand scrum that would not frighten the English, French, South Africans or perhaps even the Welsh at present (with a fit Gethin Jenkins).
A scrum success against Italy won't heal the scar tissue from Marseille in 2007, but it will be of immense worth, a building block. "They have a big pack, and will look to go for a pushover scrum from their own 22m. That's how much they enjoy scrummaging," Dean says, already warding off the devil of complacency.
The game will also be a litmus test of Paddy O'Brien's determination to address illegal play at the set piece, among other areas. There seems to unprecedented resolution from the IRB to sort out the scrum. Stuart Dickinson, Wyatt Crockett and the world will be watching with interest. In the broader picture, O'Brien has been the target of some none too subtle insinuations from Wallaby fans, and it will be a rich irony if he is the man whose crackdown on infringements is seen as crucial to creating the speed of game the Wallabies relish.
News that Deans will pick his strongest team to face the Italians should be welcomed. The importance of partnerships in rugby can sometimes be over-estimated (they are playing a contact sport, not raising a child) but it was remarkable that the Wallabies last outing was produced with new or infant combinations in the front row, second row, back row, centre pairing and back three. There will be tinkering as the tournament progresses, particularly if Pat McCabe's tenure at No.12 proves to be a worthy but ultimately failed experiment and Anthony Fainga'a slips in at No.12 and James O'Connor at No.14, but the bedding in process must begin immediately if the Wallabies are to realise the improvements that they still have within them.
So can the Wallabies win this? They can put them in a position to, if they get their heads rights. And from there, anything can happen.