Super Rugby 2015, the run home
- Thread starter Lindommer
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Pfitzy
George Gregan (70)
That is some sudden onset senility you've got there 
Given the crowds they've brought in so far this year, I doubt whether - in the face of a decent ski season - the cognoscenti will deign to bother until the big show.
Remember the Brumbies Semifinal where we thought it would sell out but didn't? So we were pessimistic for more than 50K at the final, then people blew us away.
Given the crowds they've brought in so far this year, I doubt whether - in the face of a decent ski season - the cognoscenti will deign to bother until the big show.
Remember the Brumbies Semifinal where we thought it would sell out but didn't? So we were pessimistic for more than 50K at the final, then people blew us away.
Tahs, Ponies, Chiefs and Clan travel agents doing lots of poring over flight schedules and making many phone calls to hotels in Canberra, Cape Town, Dunedin, Hamilton and Sydney. All spots behind the Canes still up for grabs. Peering into my crystal ball this is what I can see:
Hurricanes. Will finish top no matter what. Must be tempting to rest those with niggling injuries for the Chiefs match.
Chiefs. Can finish anywhere from 4th (if they win against the Canes) to 6th (lose and the Clan, Tahs and Ponies win).
Highlanders. Same as the Chiefs, 4th (win against the Blues) to 6th (lose and the Chiefs, Tahs and Ponies win).
Waratahs. Could/should finish 2nd (beat the Reds) or anywhere from 3rd to 6th (lose and the Ponies, Chiefs, Clan and Stormers win). The Ponies have an afternoon match next Saturday, the Tahs will know exactly what's required at 7:40pm kickoff.
Brumbies. Could finish 2nd (beat the Saders while the Tahs lose to the Reds) or 4th, 5th or 6th (Tahs win and any combination of wins/losses from the Chiefs, Clan and Ponies). The Ponies can't finish 3rd.
Stormers. Can only finish 2nd (beat the Sharks and the Tahs and Ponies both lose) or 3rd (one/both Tahs or Ponies win or Tahs, Ponies and Stormers all lose) due to the conference arrangement. Short odds to finish 3rd, someone's going to have to cross the Indian Ocean first week.
It's shaping up like this:
Hurricanes
Waratahs
Stormers
Highlanders
Chiefs
Brumbies
Hurricanes. Will finish top no matter what. Must be tempting to rest those with niggling injuries for the Chiefs match.
Chiefs. Can finish anywhere from 4th (if they win against the Canes) to 6th (lose and the Clan, Tahs and Ponies win).
Highlanders. Same as the Chiefs, 4th (win against the Blues) to 6th (lose and the Chiefs, Tahs and Ponies win).
Waratahs. Could/should finish 2nd (beat the Reds) or anywhere from 3rd to 6th (lose and the Ponies, Chiefs, Clan and Stormers win). The Ponies have an afternoon match next Saturday, the Tahs will know exactly what's required at 7:40pm kickoff.
Brumbies. Could finish 2nd (beat the Saders while the Tahs lose to the Reds) or 4th, 5th or 6th (Tahs win and any combination of wins/losses from the Chiefs, Clan and Ponies). The Ponies can't finish 3rd.
Stormers. Can only finish 2nd (beat the Sharks and the Tahs and Ponies both lose) or 3rd (one/both Tahs or Ponies win or Tahs, Ponies and Stormers all lose) due to the conference arrangement. Short odds to finish 3rd, someone's going to have to cross the Indian Ocean first week.
It's shaping up like this:
Hurricanes
Waratahs
Stormers
Highlanders
Chiefs
Brumbies
Brumby Runner
David Wilson (68)
@Lindommer, there may be one permutation that would see the Brumbies finsih 3rd. If the Tahs lost to the Reds and the Brumbies draw with the Cru without a bonus point and the Stomers win with or without a bonus point, wouldn't the Stormers finish 2nd and the Brumbies 3rd? A similar situation swapping the Tahs for the Brumbies would then see the Tahs finish 3rd, I think.
However, I do think you have the finishing order of the top 6 down right.
Simple for the Tahs to finish 3rd: Stormers win and both Tahs and Ponies lose. Braveheart predicted the Stormers/Lions draw in his SuperBru tipping last round, I'd wager a considerable amount of money lightning won't strike twice. Especially in consecutive rounds. Yes, you're quite right, BR, and I've deliberately left out draws/bonus point complexities in my analysis of this week's computations.
It's obviously sensible for coaches/management teams not to look too far ahead and take results for granted but, there are some complicated logistics involved with Super Rugby finals commitments which take a lot of sensible and delicate foresight and planning. Getting a team from Dunedin to Cape Town at short notice for starters so's not to leave the visitors jetlagged and buggered. Let's see how it all washes out.
It's obviously sensible for coaches/management teams not to look too far ahead and take results for granted but, there are some complicated logistics involved with Super Rugby finals commitments which take a lot of sensible and delicate foresight and planning. Getting a team from Dunedin to Cape Town at short notice for starters so's not to leave the visitors jetlagged and buggered. Let's see how it all washes out.
Benaud
Tom Lawton (22)
2nd looks like the ideal spot. Stormers are going woeful and 6th will have to travel over and back. Whoever gets 2nd is basically guaranteed a spot in the final.
But still, no Kiwi side has lost a finals match at home this century, and no Kiwi side has ever lost a finals match at home to an international opponent so for the Canes not to win the title is going to require something historically extraordinary.
But still, no Kiwi side has lost a finals match at home this century, and no Kiwi side has ever lost a finals match at home to an international opponent so for the Canes not to win the title is going to require something historically extraordinary.
rugbysmartarse
Alan Cameron (40)
gong into the 2014 finals no team from NSW had ever won the title....
the comp is young. these "never happened" scenarios are just a case of "haven't happened yet"
the comp is young. these "never happened" scenarios are just a case of "haven't happened yet"
waiopehu oldboy
Stirling Mortlock (74)
With the playoffs looming here's some stats for the Conf era:
8 qualifying finals, 7 won by the home side (87.5%), only away winner Sharks in Aus 2012
8 semi finals, 5 won by the home side (62.5%, I expected it to be higher), away winners Crusaders in SA 2011, Sharks in SA 2012 & Brumbies in SA 2013
Combined home team advantage 75% & all three SF away winners have lost the Final.
4 Finals, all won by the home team & three by the team that finished top of the regular season, the other (Chiefs 2012) by the team that came second.
Overall home team advantage 80.0%.
8 qualifying finals, 7 won by the home side (87.5%), only away winner Sharks in Aus 2012
8 semi finals, 5 won by the home side (62.5%, I expected it to be higher), away winners Crusaders in SA 2011, Sharks in SA 2012 & Brumbies in SA 2013
Combined home team advantage 75% & all three SF away winners have lost the Final.
4 Finals, all won by the home team & three by the team that finished top of the regular season, the other (Chiefs 2012) by the team that came second.
Overall home team advantage 80.0%.
Benaud
Tom Lawton (22)
I just looked back to 2001.
14 years. 1st won 12 times. 2nd won the other 2. No side outside the top 2 won any.
Basically there are 2 hopes left. The Canes and whoever finishes 2nd. And the Canes have a huge edge in that battle. You wouldn't say anyone else winning is impossible, but it's close.
Back the Canes. 2.50 is obscene.
14 years. 1st won 12 times. 2nd won the other 2. No side outside the top 2 won any.
Basically there are 2 hopes left. The Canes and whoever finishes 2nd. And the Canes have a huge edge in that battle. You wouldn't say anyone else winning is impossible, but it's close.
Back the Canes. 2.50 is obscene.
waiopehu oldboy
Stirling Mortlock (74)
^^^^^^^ you should try to find a betting site offering a multi on the playoffs, if your scenario plays out you'll make an absolute motza as no-one else in their right mind will believe it's possible for the Brumbies to fly to SA & beat the Stormers then fly to NZ & beat the 'canes.
waiopehu oldboy
Stirling Mortlock (74)
Chiefs get no points v 'canes so next week it's def Stormers v Brumbies in Cape Town & Clan v Chiefs in Dunners. Reds could put 50 on 'tahs now & it'd count for sweet fuckall. Not that they will, tho.
Eyes and Ears
Bob Davidson (42)
really, if stormers win and tahs lose, don't the Stormers have the week off?
waiopehu oldboy
Stirling Mortlock (74)
I take it you're not watching the unfolding massacre on Ch 502.........
Eyes and Ears
Bob Davidson (42)
i am but on a 40 min delay.
qwerty51
Stirling Mortlock (74)
waiopehu oldboy
Stirling Mortlock (74)
The first part is done. It'll come off
I'll scour the betting sites on your behalf & my finder's fee is a mere 7.5%
Benaud
Tom Lawton (22)
Stormers were positively awful tonight. That should be virtually a freebie for the Brumbies if they can keep scrums to a minimum. Stormers do have the opportunity to win the comp from outside the top 6 though - which could be a tough record to beat long term. I'd almost feel for the Crusaders being the 4th best team this year (behind 3 in their conference), finishing 6th on the ladder and missing out on a technicality, if it wasn't the Crusaders.
kiap
Steve Williams (59)
This is nonsense. 9/16 = 56% win rate with losses to the Rebels and Bulls.
They might be the 4th best team this week.
But a season is more than a week - or a month.
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