Super Rugby 2019 Predictions - Aussie Conference

[Brumby Runner]

1. The Rebels have the best squad and are, by most measures, the deserved favourite for top spot. It's no lay down misere though. They need to live up to the potential they have had for a couple of seasons but yet to actually realise which is a big unknown.

Wessels in his second year. I would expect they will be very likely to live up to their potential. Having said that, the front row is a weakness and the centres will struggle until To'omua and Hodge are available.

 

[Froggy]

But BR, will the Tahs have 10 Wallabies? The fact that someone has, at some point, been a Wallaby doesn't mean they will be selected this year. I would suggest Hooper, Kepu, Foley, Beale & Folau are the only certainties.

 

[Derpus]

How many games do the Wallabies' players have to miss? Is it 2 or 3?

Tahs have 10 Wallabies, = 20 or 30 missed man games just through resting. In a 15 game season, discounting for matches against the very top sides when you'd want to play the complete best team, that could equate to 2 or 3 missing players, on average, from each game where players are rested. I think that will have a big bearing on the Tahs' outcome in 2019.

It's hard to know without knowing the policy in detail. Is it every single capped Wallaby or just the core definities like Pocock and Hooper?

How many more Wallabies do the Tahs have over the Brumbies, top of my head the Brumbies have at least 8 right, more if you count potentials like Lilo, Valetini and Slipper.?

Are you also including people like Hunt and Hanigan as Tah Wallabies? because i doubt the requirement to rest them would be the same as it would be for say Hooper.

 

[Braveheart81]

How many games do the Wallabies' players have to miss? Is it 2 or 3?

Tahs have 10 Wallabies, = 20 or 30 missed man games just through resting. In a 15 game season, discounting for matches against the very top sides when you'd want to play the complete best team, that could equate to 2 or 3 missing players, on average, from each game where players are rested. I think that will have a big bearing on the Tahs' outcome in 2019.

This article says 1 or 2 matches https://www.sbs.com.au/news/rest-key-in-world-cup-year-super-coaches

It will depend on the player. You can guarantee that key Wallabies will be asked to miss two games. For the Tahs this would be Hooper, Foley, Beale, Kepu and Folau.

I would guess that Phipps and Gordon might just be one because they will share a lot of game time.

Simmons, Hanigan, Latu and Dempsey would surely be one. They're guys who aren't guaranteed a seat on the plane.

AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and Hunt would presumably not be required to be rested because they're an outside chance to make the squad to begin with.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some tanking on the South African tour by letting a few key players avoid the trip altogether. I guess we'll wait and see.

 

[Derpus]

^^^^
You would expect the Brumbies to rest Pocock, Sio, AAA and TK at least twice then. You also have Arnold, Banks, FFaingaa, Powell, etc. who are all recently capped and would need to be rested once.

Doesn't seem to be a huge difference.

 

[Braveheart81]

You would also think there might be a bit of horsetrading in the Aussie conference games to lessen the impact. For Tahs vs Brumbies you rest Hooper and Pocock for example.

 

[Derpus]

You would also think there might be a bit of horsetrading in the Aussie conference games to lessen the impact. For Tahs vs Brumbies you rest Hooper and Pocock for example.

not terribly sporting.

 

[Rebels3]

What NZ did last year was from a nominated All Blacks group, each player had to be rested twice (or if they missed a game through injury). It was left to the franchises to decide which games they did this in. Some rested on the SA tour for example or games they should win.

I'd say the Sunwolves will benefit most from the policy, with a lot also missing at least one game on the SA/Arg tour

Teams will target a game and risk the result in the other

 

[RugbyReg]

Don't know if I posted previously but as it's now game week (for some), my season predictions are thus:

1 Rebels
2 Brumbies
3 Waratahs
4 Reds

 

[Jets]

1, Rebels - Need some early wins if they are to make it, loose a few a doubt will creep in.

2, Ponies - Like them a lot. TK back in form will give them metres and then Banks with plenty of speed on the wings to help. Just need halves to get them the ball.

3, Tah's - Could finish much higher due to quality guys who've been there before and done the job. Tight five a huge worry. Dempsey excites me though, but they're the Tahs.

4, Reds - A few years too soon and one coach early to make a charge. Talk about DP and Thorn not talking is worrying. Hopefully open up the backline and give Sefa the ball.

5, Moon Dogs - Plenty of Japanese players being rested.

 

[Sully]

Don't know if I posted previously but as it's now game week (for some), my season predictions are thus:

1 Rebels
2 Brumbies
3 Waratahs
4 Reds

I call bullshit!!!!

 

[Dctarget]

1. Rebels
If Genia can stay fit and find some connection with Quade, then the Rebels will be a juggernaut. My prediction is Tahs will actually win the Aus conference with Rebs dropping too many games to come top, but still slide into the finals. Then finally after a season they start clicking with Genia, Quade, To'omua, Hodge, Koroibete, Maddocks and DHP to all come good just in time to wipe the floor with the Crusaders/Hurricanes/generic-invincible-NZ-team to win the championship in front of a sold-out stockade.

2. Waratahs
Picking up Hunt and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) has swapped the Brumbies and Waratahs for me. Now they actually have some defensive players to allow Beale, Folau and Foley to attack. Scoring points have never been the 'Tahs issue. Also Hooper will be back to his best now he doesn't have to carry the team defensively.

3. Brumbies
Wouldn't be surprised to see the Ponies come 1st, 2nd or 3rd but feel like Pocock will get injured/teams will work out how to negate him and the Brumbies will suddenly have no ball, à la the Wallabies last year. I think Samu is overrated after performing in a Crusaders pack. I think you could slap a Christchurch jersey on my grandma and put her on the pitch and teams would be lining up to sign her. Also Speight, TK and Banks will do occasional wonders but the ball won't get out to them enough due to a failing halves pairing and smothered pack.

4. Reds
Yeah fuck the Reds - they have let me down for nearly a decade so I'm not expecting shit from them. Honestly the Tokyo Drifting moonpuppies could easily come higher. Our only scores will be in multiples of 3 after penalties from our dominant scrum. There'll be a revolving door policy with scrumhalves before Thorn gets so sick he puts himself in. The backs defence will be non existent. We'll continue to produce Rob Simmons clones in 4 & 5, giant human noodles. Sefa will realise he saw more ball on the bench for the Rebels than the wing for the Reds, watching CFS and Samu crash it up every single time.

5. Sunwolves
私はそれらについてたわごとを知りません。Ed Quirkはまだプレーしていますか?

 

[The Honey Badger]

Brilliant Dctarget

 

[Up the Guts]

1. Tahs
2. Brumbies
3. Rebels
4. Reds
5. Sunwolves

Rebels will be giant killers but I’m not sure they’ll necessarily be connected enough as a group to put together consistent performances (hoping I’m wrong though and Genia and Cooper have a 2011 like season). Waratahs know how to get it done and the Brumbies have a very well rounded squad. Reds have the talent but there’s something about the combinations and the playing style that just don’t work. Sunwolves have improved but most teams still put cricket scores on them last year and I can’t see them winning many tour matches.

 

[dru]

You’d be crazy to call it before a few games.

1. Rebels
2. Waratahs
3. Reds
4. Brumbies
5. hmm problem

Lunar doggies may not come last in a year where this conference regularly has Aus franchises stealing points from each other.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Is it too early to make a reasonable prediction? Yes.

Will I do it anyway? Also yes.

1. Brumbies. I'm biased, obviously, but I see the continuity from last season and it excites me. Lots of people remember the disappointing start and the soul-crushing middle, but our final six games really were of the highest quality. The difference between finals footy and missing out was missing a conversion in the second game; we were trash for over 60% of the season, and we were still that close. So, god willing, we begin this season as we ended the last, and ride off into the semi finals.
2. Waratahs. Why? Because they're stronger than they were last year and last year they topped the conference. Time will tell if Gibson and co have learned to do the math before a final round fixture. The recruiting focus in the forwards shows that they're well aware of their weakness, though that didn't stop them last time round.
3. Reds. Thorn is in make-it-or-break-it stage, and I suspect that will either lead to success or pragmatism. Their forward pack is probably the best in Australia, and the backline is stacked with potential. If potential gets converted to form, then you only have to look at the England-France game on the weekend to see what a half-decent backline can do behind a dominant pack. Having high hopes that Petaia will set himself up as a potential 13 for Aus.
4. Rebels. Because paying a fuckton of money to players isn't team building, their front row is easily the worst of the Australian teams, and nobody can pick a backline for them when 90% of their backs have played three positions in the last twelve months. Talent will show and Wessels is good, but it's too large an overhaul to achieve in one season with a bucket of ARU money.
5. Sunwolves. Like the Rebels but in Japan with fewer good players and less ARU money.

 

[Derpus]

Got me blue tinted glasses on but i think the Tahs will finish first. I doubt they'll rest all the Wallabies at the same time, so if it's well managed it shouldnt be as deleterious as some have suggested.

Rebels have had many seasons with a theoretically great team and it never eventuates. Their front row was absolutely atrocious last year, regularly cost them games and they haven't fixed it.

Havent seen anything from the Reds to suggest they'll be any better than last season either, other than the shipping out of some dross. They are almost the inverse to the Rebels. Crack front row but Stewart and Hegarty as your key playmakers leaves a bit to be desired.

Brumbies lost Naisarani but have a fit (hopefully) Valetini and have signed Samu. The rest of the team really came good at the end of last season and should kick on. Brumbies and Tahs competing for top spot. They have better depth than the Rebels as well, in my opinion.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Oh Derpus - just be thankful you did not lay a big bet on that prediction!

 

[Rugbynutter39]

1-3 Brumbies, Reds, Rebels (as to what order who knows as all look good and reckon will be close between these 3 and not game to predict order other than saying they will be the top 3)
4. Tahs (small pack, not recruited well outside of KH..AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)....will struggle....)
5. Sunwolves (Sadly...resting Japanese test players, McMahon injured before a game....going to be long season but they may make the odd upset)

 

[Rebels3]

2 Aus teams will make the finals.

I think for the first time, the player drain is hurting some kiwi sides with 2 potentially 3 squads with less depth than a few Aussie sides. Now that’s not saying their starting 15s aren’t better but a few injuries and I think there is NPC quality players taking the spot of super quality players.