The road home - Super rugby 2014

[Dctarget]

Waratahs: 57
Sharks: 53
Crusaders: 50
Highlanders: 44
Brumbies: 43
Western Force: 43

Here's my best case scenario, a smattering of bonus points for everyone with next week's match between the force and the ponies ending with four tries each and a draw (3 points each). Lets cross our fingers hey

 

[badabing59]

Well after the two saffer clashes this evening, I'm going with Fitzy and Lynagh picks:

1. Tahs
2. Crusaders
3. Shorks
4. Brumbies
5. Highlanders
6. Hurricanes.

Damn this is going to be an excruciatingly long week!

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Well after the two saffer clashes this evening, I'm going with Fitzy and Lynagh picks:

1. Tahs
2. Crusaders
3. Shorks
4. Brumbies
5. Highlanders
6. Hurricanes.

Damn this is going to be an excruciatingly long week!

Top 5 looks about right but perhaps not exactly in that order depending on BP's & margins but dunno about the 'canes making it: a losing BP to either Force or Brumbies gets them through on games won & that's assuming the Chiefs don't win which they very may well do.

 

[Lindommer]

Cheetahs 27 Sharks 20, que? What's happened to the wobbegongs? Is it a case of a team peaking too early? I must say it's delightful to see Jakeball beaten. It'd seem opponents take a little time to work out and adjust to Jakeball, that's why it can win a RWC campaign but not a Super Rugby title.

 

[BDA]

I reckon the final log will read something like this:-

1.Tahs -57
2.Saders - 51
3.Sharks - 50
4.Brumbies - 45
5. Highlanders - 45
6. Chiefs - 45

spots 4 to 6 might be in a different order depending on who picks up bonus points but the Force and the Canes are Goooone!

 

[Forcefield]

The Blues would surely be the favourites to beat the Chiefs at home.

 

[ChargerWA]

I reckon the final log will read something like this:-

1.Tahs -57
2.Saders - 51
3.Sharks - 50
4.Brumbies - 45
5. Highlanders - 45
6. Chiefs - 45

spots 4 to 6 might be in a different order depending on who picks up bonus points but the Force and the Canes are Goooone!

Except if the Force win, then there in. In fact they can make it with a losing BP if the Chiefs lose, as they have more wins than the Canes.

But feel free to continue to underestimate us.

 

[BDA]

true but i dont think the brumbies or the chiefs will lose

 

[BDA]

The Blues would surely be the favourites to beat the Chiefs at home.

you think? the blues season is over. the chiefs should be more motivated

 

[matty_k]

I saw somewhere that The Blues have to win by 39 points (or close to it) to remain a chance.

 

[ChargerWA]

I saw somewhere that The Blues have to win by 39 points (or close to it) to remain a chance.

That was Sumo. I tweeted him back. I don't see how they can. They are on 36, both the Force and Brumbies are on 40. Both can't lose, and a draw would be enough for them both to be ahead of the Blues.

 

[Forcefield]

you think? the blues season is over. the chiefs should be more motivated

There are All Blacks jerseys up for grabs. The Blues have an entire pack that could arguably be playing for a position in the Rugby Championship. I don't think the Blues would be lacking motivation, especially not at home.

 

[Braveheart81]

That was Sumo. I tweeted him back. I don't see how they can. They are on 36, both the Force and Brumbies are on 40. Both can't lose, and a draw would be enough for them both to be ahead of the Blues.

Isn't that so they go above the Hurricanes and finish 6th if Force or Brumbies get no bonus points?

 

[Hawko]

The Tahs will be first. I cannot see them losing both games, they have been too good at home up till now. But after that the table gets real interesting.

The Crusaders could lose against the Highlanders at home next week. The Highlanders will be desperate and the karma will be with them after Vinnie's "blade of grass" TMO decision a couple of weeks ago.

The Sharks can't lose a home knockout game but they will have to beat the Stormers with two bonus points and hope the Crusaders don't do the same if they want a home semi. As four try bonus points are anathema to the Sharks, they are likely to be travelling. The Stormers must be favorites at home and gunning for second spot in SA, so if the Crusaders and Sharks both lose next week, a distinct possibility, then it might be the Tahs and the Highlanders with the home semi's.

Its going to be a delicious final round. My favorite alternative today is a Highlanders loss with two bonus points. That sets up an unbelievable last week with every one in the top nine fighting for spots and the second home semi still a race in three.

 

[Wilson]

Isn't that so they go above the Hurricanes and finish 6th if Force or Brumbies get no bonus points?

Yeah blues can still make it, but only if one of the brumbies and force get no points out of their match. Here's hoping they do beat the chiefs because then the brumbies and force only need a point each to qualify and get 3 Aussie sides into the finals.

 

[wamberal]

The Tahs will be first. I cannot see them losing both games, they have been too good at home up till now.

They play the Reds at Suncorp, so they had better win today. Beware the wounded Reds at their fortress.

My favorite alternative today is a Highlanders loss with two bonus points.

Mine is for the Tahs to win by 20+ A very close game, with the Landers scoring 4+ tries, sounds like heart attack territory for moi.

 

[qwerty51]

Sharks losing was actually a bad result for the Tahs. Means a likely opponent in the finals will not be coming from SA.

Tahs
Crusaders
Shorks

Brumbies
Chiefs
Highlanders

Shorks vs Highlanders
Brumbies vs Chiefs

Tahs vs Brumbies in front of 45k at Allianz
Crusaders vs Sharks

Tahs vs Crusaders final at ANZ in front of 83k.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Sharks losing was actually a bad result for the Tahs. Means a likely opponent in the finals will not be coming from SA.

Tahs
Crusaders
Shorks

Brumbies
Chiefs
Highlanders

Shorks vs Highlanders
Brumbies vs Chiefs

Tahs vs Brumbies in front of 45k at Allianz
Crusaders vs Sharks

Tahs vs Crusaders final at ANZ in front of 83k.

Except that the Clan will beat the Shorks. Jake ball is done and dusted at the end of the season. If the Brumbies can adopt an attacking mindset, they will beat the Chiefs and play the Tahs in the final.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I reckon the final log will read something like this:-

1.Tahs -57
2.Saders - 51
3.Sharks - 50
4.Brumbies - 45
5. Highlanders - 45
6. Chiefs - 45

spots 4 to 6 might be in a different order depending on who picks up bonus points but the Force and the Canes are Goooone!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the only way that could be the final lineup is if both the Crusaders and the Highlanders get 4 points out of their last game? Can't see that happening.

 

[Aussie D]

Hoping the Blues snaffle an 8+ point win v Chiefs and Brumbies / Force both manage to pick up 2 points out of the game each to have 3 Oz teams in the final 6, with the Force' maiden finals appearance. The Brumbies finishing 6th would be great, especially if it results in a Jakeball play-off (guarantees no Jakeball final).