The road home - Super rugby 2014

[Lindommer]

Version 1.8.​

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18 rounds gone, 1 to go. Table and future fixtures:​

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Waratahs (53 points/11 wins) Reds​

Crusaders (46/10) Clan​

Sharks (46/10) Stormers​

Highlanders (42/8) Saders​

Hurricanes (41/8) bye​

Brumbies (40/9) Force​

Western Force (40/9) Ponies​

Chiefs (40/7) Blues​

Blues (36/7) Chiefs​

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Still in the lap of the gods. The Force not scoring a fourth try against the Reds could prove very expensive; one more competition point would've left them in fifth, possibly enough to make the finals without relying on a win in Canberra. They have a massive incentive to win next week: a home final.​

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The time for discussion and supposition's over, here're my finalists:​

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Waratahs 58​

Crusaders 50​

Sharks 47​

Brumbies 44​

Highlanders 43​

Western Force 41​

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Hurricanes 41​

Blues 41​

Chiefs 41​

 

[kiap]

Crunch games:

1. Blues v Chiefs​

2. Brumbies v Force​

3. Crusaders v Highlanders​

Highlanders:

• Only way they can miss out is if they lose + {Chiefs win ...AND... Brumbies and Force draw }

Brumbies and Force:

• Whichever wins makes it. A draw also has a fair chance of being enough (if the Highlanders or Chiefs lose, ...OR... Chiefs get a draw with the same BP as the Aussie teams). Even a losing BP still has a slim hope.

 

[BDA]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the only way that could be the final lineup is if both the Crusaders and the Highlanders get 4 points out of their last game? Can't see that happening.

i actually made that prediction on the basis that the Highlanders would take at least 3 point for their last two games. but they didn't even pick up one point against the tahs

 

[Benaud]

So I end up with:

Waratahs 53
Crusaders 51
Sharks 50
Brumbies 45
Chiefs 44
Highlanders 44

Hurricanes 43
Force 42

The only thing I'll say with confidence is the Tahs, Saders and Sharks will likely top their conferences and 3 of the remaining 5 listed will make up the remainder. I'm a long way from discounting the Canes and Force despite listing them 7th and 8th at this stage.

Seems nothing has changed since the break. Same order with the same query and almost exactly the same points as anticipated (minus a couple for the bottom 3).

I still think that is the most likely order. Tahs already 1st. Saders 100s chance to lose to the Klan at home so they'll get 2nd. Sharks 3rd. Brumbies almost certain to beat the Force, although they are a bit renowned for choking in these games. They should get 4th. Chiefs need to beat the Blues to finish 5th, which would see the Highlanders slot in 6th. If the Chiefs go down, Highlanders finish 5th with Hurricanes likely to nab 6th (barring an unlikely bonus point for the Force which would see them snatch it).

All will be revealed on Friday night. The rest of the round is for shits and giggles.

 

[kiap]

Predictions:

1. Blues v Chiefs points => 4 – 1​

2. Brumbies v Force points => 4 – 1​

3. Crusaders v Highlanders points => whatever​

Waratahs
Crusaders
Sharks
Brumbies 44
Highlanders 42
Force 41

Hurricanes 41
Chiefs 41
Blues 40

 

[Brumby Runner]

So these are my tips for the crucial matches in the last round.

Tahs to beat the Reds with a 4-try bonus point.
Aus 2 to beat Aus 3 by <7. (Can't identify whether 1 or 2 are the Brumbies or Force), but no 4-try bonus point.
Chiefs to beat the Blues with no bonus point.
Cru to beat the Highlanders by <7 but with no 4-try bonus point.
Sharks to beat the Stormers with no 4-try bonus point.

That would result in the final 6 being:
Tahs 58
Cru 50
Sharks 50
Aus 2 44
Chiefs 44
Clan 43

Aus 3 41
Canes 41

Then comes the fantasy. Aus 2 to beat the Chiefs at home. Highlanders to beat the Sharks in Durban.
Then Aus 2 to beat the Crusaders and Tahs to beat the Highlanders.
Tahs v Aus 2 in the final.

 

[Pfitzy]

Blues to beat the Chiefs at Eden Park 5-1
Brumbies beat the Force 4-1
Bulls beat the Rebels 5-0
Crusaders pummel Clan 5-0
Tahs beat Reds 5-0 (famous last words)
Cheetahs beat Lions 5-1
Stormers beat Shorks 4-1

Table becomes as below. Note that in the above scenario, the Force on 41 points tie with others but have 9 wins against the Hurricanes 8 and Chiefs and Blues on 7.

58 ​

Waratahs
51 Crusaders
47 Shorks
44 Brumbies
42 Highlanders
41 Force

Week 1:
Shorks v Force in Durban
Brumbies v Clan in Canboring

Week 2:
Crusaders v Shorks in ChCh
Tahs v Brumbies in Sydney

Week 3:
Tahs v Crusaders in Sydney

Week 4:
Pfitzy runs the City2Surf with a brand new "Tahs 2014" tattoo.

 

[Pfitzy]

Note that if the Chiefs win tonight, the only way the Force can get in is to beat the Brumbies. This scenario pushes the Clan out.

Its very complex for positions 4-6. If I could see any way for the Crusaders and Sharks to reverse positions it would be very good for the Tahs...

 

[Benaud]

If the Chiefs win, they're in. Brumbies vs Force then becomes a playoff. Winner in, loser out.

If the Chiefs lose, they're out. Winner of Brumbies vs Force goes through and loser can still get in if they finish within 7. Otherwise Canes get through.

Either way, Tahs, Saders, Sharks and Highlanders are already in.

That's basically it. The other permutations like a Force-Brumbies draw or the Blues putting 50 on the Chiefs are so unlikely they're not really worth considering.

 

[Pfitzy]

Brumbies are $1.28 favourites at the TAB. Force $3.70

Having said that, the line is $1.90 at 8.5 so you'd think the odds are a little out....

Draw is paying $26...

 

[qwerty51]

Sharks losing was actually a bad result for the Tahs. Means a likely opponent in the finals will not be coming from SA.

Tahs
Crusaders
Shorks

Brumbies
Chiefs
Highlanders

Shorks vs Highlanders
Brumbies vs Chiefs

Tahs vs Brumbies in front of 45k at Allianz
Crusaders vs Sharks

Tahs vs Crusaders final at ANZ in front of 83k.

Considering I give the Highlanders zero chance to beat the Crusaders and the Sharks zero chance to pick up more competition points than the Crusaders you just lock these in.

 

[Troy]

Going on past results and providing the ladder stays as is, the Highlanders play the Shorks in Deben, and the Chiefs play the ponies in Canberra.

That means the highlanders come back and play the Tahs and the Brumbies travel across the ditch and play the Saders!

Then it's a Tahs v Cru final

As they haven't played yet, my predictions will stop here...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

[Benaud]

Last year's GF replay sounds like an appetising quarter. I suspect the Brumbies will be too strong at home but should be good to watch. Then they'll meet the Tahs in Sydney to determine which Aussie team makes the final. If the Brumbies make it without their 2 best players - God help the rest of the competition next year.

The Highlanders on the other hand really look like lambs to the slaughter in Durban (or still an outside chance Christchurch). Tonight's matches are all about working out who gets the home ground advantage when the Saders and Sharks inevitably meet in the semi final for the right to meet Australia's best side in the final.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Last year's GF replay sounds like an appetising quarter. I suspect the Brumbies will be too strong at home but should be good to watch. Then they'll meet the Tahs in Sydney to determine which Aussie team makes the final. If the Brumbies make it without their 2 best players - God help the rest of the competition next year.

The Highlanders on the other hand really look like lambs to the slaughter in Durban (or still an outside chance Christchurch). Tonight's matches are all about working out who gets the home ground advantage when the Saders and Sharks inevitably meet in the semi final for the right to meet Australia's best side in the final.

I wouldn't be writing the Highlanders off just yet. IIRC they already beat the Sharks in Durban this year, and there is no denying that the Sharks seem to have gone off the boil. Tonight's game against the Stormers will probably throw a bit more light on their prospects. If the Highlanders were to win of course, that would open up the chance of an all Aus final so long as both the Tahs and Brumbies win their games. A big ask, I will concede.

 

[Pfitzy]

I wouldn't be writing the Highlanders off just yet. IIRC they already beat the Sharks in Durban this year, and there is no denying that the Sharks seem to have gone off the boil. Tonight's game against the Stormers will probably throw a bit more light on their prospects. If the Highlanders were to win of course, that would open up the chance of an all Aus final so long as both the Tahs and Brumbies win their games. A big ask, I will concede.

1) Can't see the Shorks winning by more than the 34 points they need (assume BP is part of that) against the Stormers. If they even tried, the witch hunt for bookies would be in full flight before the Stormers even got to the presser.

2) Shorks are pretty fucked in terms of recent form, but the Clan are double-fucked and the travel, plus the hammering their pack has taken the last two weeks, will ensure the Sharks travel to Christchurch to face the Crusaders the following week. I'll bet the Clan back office even has the tickets on standby as we speak

3) I would love nothing more than to have the Shorks finish 2nd as it gives my Tahs another percentage point in their favour, but I'm not taking it for granted.

We will have at least one Aussie team in the final, but even if that final happens to be in Sydney, I think the Crusaders are even money to take it out given their playing roster.

 

[Lee Grant]

Aussie fans should be hoping that the Highlanders beat the Sharks next week.


Commentators have said since the end of the Crusaders' match that the Sharks have to have a BP win over the Stormers and win by 35 points or more in order to get second finalist ranking (over the Crusaders).

This would be like watching a cow playing the piano (the Sharks scoring four tries) though it is possible.

Let's say they don't.

Assuming the commentators are right, then the only way that there can be two Aussie teams in the Final is if:

1. The Tahs win their semi and the Brumbies win their two matches, of course … AND

2. The Highlanders beat the third-placed Sharks in Durban.

If the Sharks beat the Clan they will become the third-ranked finalist and play the second-ranked Crusaders in their semi, in Christchurch.

The winner of the other match Brumbies v Chiefs would become the fourth-ranked finalist and play the first-ranked finalists, The Tahs in Sydney in the other semi.

So there can be no all-Aussie final if the Sharks beat the Highlanders.


BUT if the Clan beat the Sharks they will be only the fourth-ranked finalist and they will play a semi in Sydney. In this case the third-ranked finalist will be the winner of the Brumbies v Chiefs match.

Let's suppose the Brumbies beat the Chiefs; it will be they who go to Christchurch, not the Highlanders.


So, next week, we Aussies have to hope that the Highlanders beat the Sharks in Durban and the Brumbies win at home—as Stage I of my cunning plan for an all-Aussie final.
.

 

[JJJ]

I read on another forum that the Tahs haven't beaten the Crusaders since Feb 2004. That's quite the run if true.

Edit: just checked and it's true. Round 1 2004, back in the Super 12 days. Yikes

 

[Brumby Runner]

Aussie fans should be hoping that the Highlanders beat the Sharks next week.


Commentators have said since the end of the Crusaders' match that the Sharks have to have a BP win over the Stormers and win by 35 points or more in order to get second finalist ranking (over the Crusaders).

This would be like watching a cow playing the piano (the Sharks scoring four tries) though it is possible.

Let's say they don't.

Assuming the commentators are right, then the only way that there can be two Aussie teams in the Final is if:

1. The Tahs win their semi and the Brumbies win their two matches, of course … AND

2. The Highlanders beat the third-placed Sharks in Durban.

If the Sharks beat the Clan they will become the third-ranked finalist and play the second-ranked Crusaders in their semi, in Christchurch.

The winner of the other match Brumbies v Chiefs would become the fourth-ranked finalist and play the first-ranked finalists, The Tahs in Sydney in the other semi.

So there can be no all-Aussie final if the Sharks beat the Highlanders.


BUT if the Clan beat the Sharks they will be only the fourth-ranked finalist and they will play a semi in Sydney. In this case the third-ranked finalist will be the winner of the Brumbies v Chiefs match.

Let's suppose the Brumbies beat the Chiefs; it will be they who go to Christchurch, not the Highlanders.


So, next week, we Aussies have to hope that the Highlanders beat the Sharks in Durban and the Brumbies win at home—as Stage I of my cunning plan for an all-Aussie final.
.

Exactly my thoughts LG above, but with a whole lot more elaboration.

 

[Shiggins]

On wins the force finished 5th. Where they deserve to be.

 

[Hawko]

On wins the force finished 5th. Where they deserve to be.

This was the source of their position in Super rugby. They got very few bonus points. If they had played looser, trying to get more bonus points, they would probably have had more losses. The Hurricanes missed the finals too and they were the mirror image of the Force. Lots of bonus points from playing an expansive game but less wins.

The Force still had an excellent season!