Wallabies 2020

[Lorenzo]

That may well be the case, that what will soon unfold was decided in late 2018 and into 2019 well before the RWC. Remarkably, the SMH online is reporting strongly that RA/Wallaby staff have already been told that Rennie is to arrive as Wallaby HC (which if true is btw something of a farce in itself given the RA CEO is running around saying no Wallaby HC decision is made and the matter is still under review).

The problem though, this perhaps being the case, is that we have zero visibility re:

- how was this decision made?​

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- what decision processes were used?​

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- what selection criteria were used?​

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- what there or was there not a genuine global search for the best HC talent available?​

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- why select from candidate HCs in early 2019 when clearly many of the best Test HCs would only get into serious discussion re role changes post RWC?​

If we had an NZ-like set of HCs to choose from and/or our past decade + of choosing Wallaby HCs displayed excellent ARU/RA judgement by dint of the success and progress so created, then we could be more casual re the need for transparency re the above procedural questions. However, if in fact Rennie is already appointed it looks like we may never have answers to these questions, there will be zero transparency and clarity regarding how and why RA has made a vastly important and strategic decision. Hence we will not know if there was a sound and considered basis for the decision so made.

The stakes for getting the entire Wallaby coaching team right, or wrong, have never been higher.

it's obvious that another 4 year rolling set of mediocre (or worse) Wallaby outcomes will be not bad, but will be disastrous, for Australian rugby. A 15 year long cycle as it thus would be of ordinariness and low competence for fans, sponsors and media payers. Whomever is to blame, no elite sporting code can afford that length of sustained decline in all of income, prestige and credibility and still hope to prosper out the other side.

Remarkably, the SMH online is reporting strongly that RA/Wallaby staff have already been told that Rennie is to arrive as Wallaby HC (which if true is btw something of a farce in itself given the RA CEO is running around saying no Wallaby HC decision is made and the matter is still under review).

- why select from candidate HCs in early 2019 when clearly many of the best Test HCs would only get into serious discussion re role changes post RWC?​

People in organisations often hear about negotiations that are in advanced stages but are nowhere near publicly announceable. Surely you'd agree that's fair enough? Like, if staff have been told it's gonna be Rennie because he is the guy they are talking to, and it's 90 percent likely, Castle still has to push the line that they are looking at a number of options because what if Rennie pulls out?

Can you imagine this forum if Castle announced a coach who then changed his mind before actually signing his deal? The server would be on fire.

Also, it might be that Rennie has negotiated timing of the announcement around when he wants to tell the Warriors about it.

I'd imagine the pool of potentially available coaches was fairly obvious 6 months ago and their agents would have been working hard to review possible next steps. RA could probably rule out all the current test coaches at that point, each for varying reasons.

 

[Joe Blow]

th

OK, I'm going to go out on a limb ans assume a few of the up and coming stars around the place will step up to the Wallabies by July next year.

1 Scott Sio
2 Folau Fainga'a
3 Allan Ala'alatoa
4 Izaac Rodda
5 Lukhan Salakai-Loto
6 Rob Valetini
7 Michael Hooper
8 Isi Naisarani
9 Joe Powell
10 Andrew Deegan
11 Marika Koroibete
12 Matt To'omua
13 Tevita Kuridrani
14 Jordan Petaia
15 Tom Banks

16 Jordan Uelese
17 Harry Johnson-Holmes/Tom Robertson
18 Taniela Tupou
19 Darcy Swain
20 Pete Samu
21 Tate McDermott
22 Irae Simone
23 Mark Nawaqanitawase

That’s a Brumby heavy starting side. Petaia will be at 13 from this point forward. FF (Folau Fainga'a) still has to prove himself up to it and physically more suited to test rugby than Uelese and others.
Joe Powell is going to have his work cut out competing with Nic White and the Reds kid. Tom Banks is not a sure bet for 15 either.

 

[Viking]

th

That’s a Brumby heavy starting side. Petaia will be at 13 from this point forward. FF (Folau Fainga'a) still has to prove himself up to it and physically more suited to test rugby than Uelese and others.
Joe Powell is going to have his work cut out competing with Nic White and the Reds kid. Tom Banks is not a sure bet for 15 either.

I like Petaia at 13 as the long-term option, but if our wing stocks are still bare next year (likely), then I can see him playing wing with Kuridrani at 13. He is such a young bloke there is no point rushing him, plus getting a few more test rugby starts on the wing will probably be good for his development at 13 (Mortlock on a recent podcast spoke how playing on the wing helped him so much be a better 13, having a better understanding of what your wingers want outside you).

Plus if K-train at 13 is in better form then any Aus wingers - it makes perfect sense.

 

[Viking]

OK, I'm going to go out on a limb ans assume a few of the up and coming stars around the place will step up to the Wallabies by July next year.

1 Scott Sio
2 Folau Fainga'a
3 Allan Ala'alatoa
4 Izaac Rodda
5 Lukhan Salakai-Loto
6 Rob Valetini
7 Michael Hooper
8 Isi Naisarani
9 Joe Powell
10 Andrew Deegan
11 Marika Koroibete
12 Matt To'omua
13 Tevita Kuridrani
14 Jordan Petaia
15 Tom Banks

16 Jordan Uelese
17 Harry Johnson-Holmes/Tom Robertson
18 Taniela Tupou
19 Darcy Swain
20 Pete Samu
21 Tate McDermott
22 Irae Simone
23 Mark Nawaqanitawase

There is so much hope for us in 2020. That's a damn good looking starting XV - Deegan being the big unknown but the others you'd bet can step up a level if they haven't already proven so.

It would be nice to have some fresh in-form wingers to choose from too, to give Petaia more time at 13.

 

[Derpus]

OK, I'm going to go out on a limb ans assume a few of the up and coming stars around the place will step up to the Wallabies by July next year.

1 Scott Sio
2 Folau Fainga'a
3 Allan Ala'alatoa
4 Izaac Rodda
5 Lukhan Salakai-Loto
6 Rob Valetini
7 Michael Hooper
8 Isi Naisarani
9 Joe Powell
10 Andrew Deegan
11 Marika Koroibete
12 Matt To'omua
13 Tevita Kuridrani
14 Jordan Petaia
15 Tom Banks

16 Jordan Uelese
17 Harry Johnson-Holmes/Tom Robertson
18 Taniela Tupou
19 Darcy Swain
20 Pete Samu
21 Tate McDermott
22 Irae Simone
23 Mark Nawaqanitawase

Pretty good side BR. Few points of difference for me. Powell is 4th behind White, McDermott and Gordon.

I think Petaia will be 13 moving forward. We will probably see some of these star backrowers from Queensland fairly soon.

I reckon Phillip might beat LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) to the second row slot that is vacant.

Also think JOC (James O'Connor) is a good chance to be 12.

 

[swingpass]

i don't even think Deegan will be the starting 10 at the Rebels, at least not initially.

 

[RedsHappy]

People in organisations often hear about negotiations that are in advanced stages but are nowhere near publicly announceable. Surely you'd agree that's fair enough? Like, if staff have been told it's gonna be Rennie because he is the guy they are talking to, and it's 90 percent likely, Castle still has to push the line that they are looking at a number of options because what if Rennie pulls out?

Can you imagine this forum if Castle announced a coach who then changed his mind before actually signing his deal? The server would be on fire.

Also, it might be that Rennie has negotiated timing of the announcement around when he wants to tell the Warriors about it.

I'd imagine the pool of potentially available coaches was fairly obvious 6 months ago and their agents would have been working hard to review possible next steps. RA could probably rule out all the current test coaches at that point, each for varying reasons.

I get your points but don't endorse them.

To have a CEO in very recent days 'reassuring' the media and fans that 'we're currently looking hard and wide to assess and recruit the next Wallaby HC and no decision's made' and yet where in fact that is totally untrue and a new HC was effectively appointed months before to the affirming point where insiders were telling RA staff 'Rennie is the man, he's coming', if true this all to me lacks honesty and integrity and I disapprove of it, not on an intrinsic moral basis alone, but more importantly it sets a poor example inside the organisation and will create significant cynicism outside it.

Surely, to your related point, RA insiders would not be telling all that 'Rennie is definitely coming' unless (a) they had obtained solid grounds from senior management for saying it and (b) Rennie was already signed up as if not surely it is Castle's job to keep the matter totally confidential until Rennie actually was/is signed and all parties are OK to announce it.

Finally, if as you suggest Rennie wished to contain an announcement to when he wishes to tell Glasgow about it all, then that component of the process has collapsed in a heap with RA staff now telling all and sundry Rennie will soon be in Australia.

The entire process of selecting Johnson as 'director of rugby' over Cheika at significant incremental cost (when apparently we could not afford the base cost of sacking Cheika) - (and why Johnson, his qualifications are thin by any standards for such a senior, strategic role) - and then on top (if true) selecting Rennie earlier in 2019 by some unstated criteria, the whole thing seems sub-optimal, rushed and unjustifiably non-transparent to me.

I don't see the breakthrough to the essential far higher standard of Wallaby or Super performance excellence in all this but I see others here are perfectly satisfied with it.

 

[Brumby Runner]

th

That’s a Brumby heavy starting side. Petaia will be at 13 from this point forward. FF (Folau Fainga'a) still has to prove himself up to it and physically more suited to test rugby than Uelese and others.
Joe Powell is going to have his work cut out competing with Nic White and the Reds kid. Tom Banks is not a sure bet for 15 either.

Yep, Petaia and Kuridrani will battle for the 13 spot. I think with the right distributing No 12, like Simone at the Brumbies, that Tevita will have lots of opportunities in Super Rugby next year to show that he's back to his best worthy of consideration.

I reckon Fainga'a has more than proved he is up to it, and while there's not much between him and Uelese, I reckon it will be FF (Folau Fainga'a) to start and JU on the bench.

Nic White won't be back here until later in the year and I would go with the players from the Super teams to fill the Wallabies team for the July tests.

Apart from the obvious ones, there are few sure bets especially if we have a new coach by then (doubtful if Rennie is the chosen one). Banks will be battling Maddocks I believe for the 15 spot. Time to retire Beale, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and perhaps DHP.

 

[wamberal]

Do we assume that Johnson will be acting as Head Coach prior to Rennie's arrival?

 

[Brumby Runner]

There is so much hope for us in 2020. That's a damn good looking starting XV - Deegan being the big unknown but the others you'd bet can step up a level if they haven't already proven so.

It would be nice to have some fresh in-form wingers to choose from too, to give Petaia more time at 13.

The Force have been a revelation in their attacking play and their wingers have scored a motza of tries this NRC. The teamwork looks to be very tight and well managed. I put all that down largely to Deegan's influence at No 10. I reckon he's done more at a higher level than any of his competition for the 10 spot, so I'm comfortable if and when he makes the step up.

Nawaqanitawase is the standout up and comer on the wing but other prospects are Tom Wright, Filipo Duagunu and Byron Ralston. Probably time to go past the likes of Speight and Pulu too.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Pretty good side BR. Few points of difference for me. Powell is 4th behind White, McDermott and Gordon.

I think Petaia will be 13 moving forward. We will probably see some of these star backrowers from Queensland fairly soon.

I reckon Phillip might beat LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto) to the second row slot that is vacant.

Also think JOC (James O'Connor) is a good chance to be 12.

D, I can't agree with your rating of Joe Powell. First, Nic White is still contracted overseas until later in the tear, so I'd be against using him until he is available permanently. Of the others, Powell had the most impressive Super season this year and was rated above both McDermott and Gordon by Michael Cheika and presumably Scott Johnson. Given the Brumbies look to have the strongest forward pack again next year, I expect Powell will again show his worth as an all round No 9. McDermott is a big chance of getting in there too, though.

Next year might be a bit soon for the likes of Wright, McReight and Wilson given the quality of players already available in those spots. They will all make it someday though. There's only a split hair right now between Wright and Hooper imo, but the Wallaby captain will retain the spot at least for 2020. Both will ultimately miss out to McReight I believe, but not in 2020. Wilson really looks like a star in the making and conceivably could put pressure on Isi for the No 8 spot next year. The future in the backrow really does look to be rosy.

I would not be averse to Philip replacing LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto).

 

[Brumby Runner]

i don't even think Deegan will be the starting 10 at the Rebels, at least not initially.

Possible, but it would be a waste of talent imo.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Do we assume that Johnson will be acting as Head Coach prior to Rennie's arrival?

That would appear to be the logical option. Might be better though for Rennie's pick from his Assistants to take over to start implementing some of the changes we think Rennie will bring to the squad.

 

[KOB1987]

OK, I'm going to go out on a limb ans assume a few of the up and coming stars around the place will step up to the Wallabies by July next year.

1 Scott Sio
2 Folau Fainga'a
3 Allan Ala'alatoa
4 Izaac Rodda
5 Lukhan Salakai-Loto
6 Rob Valetini
7 Michael Hooper
8 Isi Naisarani
9 Joe Powell
10 Andrew Deegan
11 Marika Koroibete
12 Matt To'omua
13 Tevita Kuridrani
14 Jordan Petaia
15 Tom Banks

16 Jordan Uelese
17 Harry Johnson-Holmes/Tom Robertson
18 Taniela Tupou
19 Darcy Swain
20 Pete Samu
21 Tate McDermott
22 Irae Simone
23 Mark Nawaqanitawase

To have that many Brumbies in the side don't you need to make the assumption that the Brumbies will be about 4 wins clear in our Supe conference?

10 Brumbies
5 Reds
5 Rebels
3 Tahs

I actually think the Reds will win the conference.

 

[Derpus]

D, I can't agree with your rating of Joe Powell. First, Nic White is still contracted overseas until later in the tear, so I'd be against using him until he is available permanently. Of the others, Powell had the most impressive Super season this year and was rated above both McDermott and Gordon by Michael Cheika and presumably Scott Johnson. Given the Brumbies look to have the strongest forward pack again next year, I expect Powell will again show his worth as an all round No 9. McDermott is a big chance of getting in there too, though.

Next year might be a bit soon for the likes of Wright, McReight and Wilson given the quality of players already available in those spots. They will all make it someday though. There's only a split hair right now between Wright and Hooper imo, but the Wallaby captain will retain the spot at least for 2020. Both will ultimately miss out to McReight I believe, but not in 2020. Wilson really looks like a star in the making and conceivably could put pressure on Isi for the No 8 spot next year. The future in the backrow really does look to be rosy.

I would not be averse to Philip replacing LSL (Lukhan Salakaia-Loto).

I don't think its a given Hooper with retain the Wallaby captaincy - depending on the make up of the team in the future.

 

[wamberal]

I don't think its a given Hooper with retain the Wallaby captaincy - depending on the make up of the team in the future.

Very early to make the call, but I would put money on Petaia captaining the team one day.

 

[Lost]

Very early to make the call, but I would put money on Petaia captaining the team one day.

I reckon McReight will be captain for a long time and from early on. An outstanding player

 

[Lorenzo]

I get your points but don't endorse them.

To have a CEO in very recent days 'reassuring' the media and fans that 'we're currently looking hard and wide to assess and recruit the next Wallaby HC and no decision's made' and yet where in fact that is totally untrue and a new HC was effectively appointed months before to the affirming point where insiders were telling RA staff 'Rennie is the man, he's coming', if true this all to me lacks honesty and integrity and I disapprove of it, not on an intrinsic moral basis alone, but more importantly it sets a poor example inside the organisation and will create significant cynicism outside it.

I agree that the info probably shouldn't have been distributed below Johnson's level (for example) until the deal was announced.

Here's the actual quote that I can find "We’ve got a list of people and we know who we will be talking to."

Where is the quote about her looking 'hard and wide?' I can't find it.

Surely, to your related point, RA insiders would not be telling all that 'Rennie is definitely coming' unless (a) they had obtained solid grounds from senior management for saying it and (b) Rennie was already signed up as if not surely it is Castle's job to keep the matter totally confidential until Rennie actually was/is signed and all parties are OK to announce it.

I don't agree that Castle can keep this totally secret. There's at least her, Johnson, Rennie's lawyers, RA's lawyers, Rennie's agent and presumably several others that pretty much have to be involved in negotiations before they are finalised. The articles say that Johnson and 'high ranking officials' were talling staff (and maybe prospective staff) that Rennie had the job in the days after the QF. I think this was probably done for some reason, but in the circumstances it doesn't necassarily mean that a contract had been signed, or that the recipient is permitted to tell a journalist about it. I don't know if the reasons for telling people are good reason or not.

Finally, if as you suggest Rennie wished to contain an announcement to when he wishes to tell Glasgow about it all, then that component of the process has collapsed in a heap with RA staff now telling all and sundry Rennie will soon be in Australia.

Yes, I agree that RA staff shouldn't be telling anyone about it.

I'd be shocked if RA had an unconditional contract with Rennie that predates the quarter final. Castle isn't a graduate staffer, she has some experience in business and she would obviously see a situation where we won the RWC but had a contract with a new coach to be very awkward. I don't believe that was the case, regardless of what the SMH reports.

Assuming they were in advanced negotiations with Rennie over the last 9 months or whatever, what should Castle tell a journo? Should she say they have one guy in mind? What if Rennie pulls out prior to signing and the process takes 6 more months? "How long does it take to sign a fucken contract Raelene??? Did you lie when you said you had one guy in mind??" Should she say nothing? How would that play? "we've known for 2 years we weren't gonna win this and Castle has been sitting on her hands!!"

In the circumstances, I'd say "We’ve got a list of people and we know who we will be talking to." is actually pretty reasonable.

The entire process of selecting Johnson as 'director of rugby' over Cheika at significant incremental cost (when apparently we could not afford the base cost of sacking Cheika) - (and why Johnson, his qualifications are thin by any standards for such a senior, strategic role) - and then on top (if true) selecting Rennie earlier in 2019 by some unstated criteria, the whole thing seems sub-optimal, rushed and unjustifiably non-transparent to me.

I don't see the breakthrough to the essential far higher standard of Wallaby or Super performance excellence in all this but I see others here are perfectly satisfied with it.

I'm also unclear on Johnson's actual role, or on the appeal of his resume. With respect to expectations of excellence, at this stage I am taking what I can get.

 

[Brumby Runner]

To have that many Brumbies in the side don't you need to make the assumption that the Brumbies will be about 4 wins clear in our Supe conference?

10 Brumbies
5 Reds
5 Rebels
3 Tahs

I actually think the Reds will win the conference.

At this moment, KOB, I am assuming exactly that - Brumbies to win the Aus conference, top the ladder overall and win the Super comp handsomely. I would expect otherrs to be wanting their teams to do the same (or the Reds) but I think I have a much firmer basis for my prediction. Virtually the Wallaby pack, with the most successful attacking backline in the Conference this year. Now that it looks like either Keunzle or Lolesio will step up to the standard in the No 10 spot, I just can't see any hurdles in the way.

I am prepared however to concede that players like Uelese, Dempsey, McDermott, Petaia, and Maddocks will challenge for the spots at 2, 6, 9, 13 and 15. But I do expect the Super season to be a continuation of the Brumbies domination of the conference and with a new/different national coach and maybe selection process, that just might be reflected in the makeup of the national team, as it should.

 

[Slim 293]

To have that many Brumbies in the side don't you need to make the assumption that the Brumbies will be about 4 wins clear in our Supe conference?

It's possible........ they were 3 wins clear this year.

But I think Arnold will be a massive loss to their set piece.