Waratahs 2010
- Thread starter fatprop
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Good luck to him. I hope he does well; so long as he doesn't get any closer to the action.
What concerns me is that I haven't heard any definite news about when Horne will be appearing on the park after his hamstring strain (or Caldwell for that matter, or even Mowen from his knee operation.)
Anybody know?? Horne and Caldwell are major concerns: Horne because he is our only specialist outside centre and Sidey failed in the first trial. Caldwell because he is our only proven hard head lock apart from Mumm - and because his illness may have compromised his system.
Mowen is easier replaced but he was one of the best lineout players in any team of the Super14 last year.
If Carter plays OK in the next two trials he could get the 13 spot by default. I hope Sidey comes good because he was excellent for the Dragons team in the Magners league and hardly put a foot wrong for West Harbour in the Sydney comp, where he was mainly a 12 IIRR.
What concerns me is that I haven't heard any definite news about when Horne will be appearing on the park after his hamstring strain (or Caldwell for that matter, or even Mowen from his knee operation.)
Anybody know?? Horne and Caldwell are major concerns: Horne because he is our only specialist outside centre and Sidey failed in the first trial. Caldwell because he is our only proven hard head lock apart from Mumm - and because his illness may have compromised his system.
Mowen is easier replaced but he was one of the best lineout players in any team of the Super14 last year.
If Carter plays OK in the next two trials he could get the 13 spot by default. I hope Sidey comes good because he was excellent for the Dragons team in the Magners league and hardly put a foot wrong for West Harbour in the Sydney comp, where he was mainly a 12 IIRR.
Bruce Ross
Ken Catchpole (46)
NTA said:
Please tell me this was not intended as a serious comment.
Pfitzy
George Gregan (70)
Yes naza - but that is inside centre where blokes run at him at lot.
It was intended as a statement of fact.
As a tackler he is a big solid lad who serves the first two channels well - naza's stats bear that out as during S14 he was often standing one-out on defence and also had to do 12 when e.g. Halangahu was playing. Here the tackles are relatively straightforward: a bloke is running at you. Watch the hips, get low, hit hard.
But as a defender... well that is a different thing entirely.
Put him one further out into the 3 channel and suddenly things become more difficult. More angles. More decisions to make. You need lateral speed here in addition to being able to hit hard and stop an attack in its tracks. Even our best attacking 13 of recent years, Stirling Mortlock, finds outside centre a difficult prospect on defence. He tends to rush as his first decision, allowing a good attacking backline to move around him or skip him out.
I've seen no evidence yet that Carter is anything other than a very capable player when its a straightforward role. I've not seen him play 13 even at club level. If someone is happy to provide evidence that he's a capable 13 then I'm all eyes.
Bruce Ross said:
It was intended as a statement of fact.
As a tackler he is a big solid lad who serves the first two channels well - naza's stats bear that out as during S14 he was often standing one-out on defence and also had to do 12 when e.g. Halangahu was playing. Here the tackles are relatively straightforward: a bloke is running at you. Watch the hips, get low, hit hard.
But as a defender... well that is a different thing entirely.
Put him one further out into the 3 channel and suddenly things become more difficult. More angles. More decisions to make. You need lateral speed here in addition to being able to hit hard and stop an attack in its tracks. Even our best attacking 13 of recent years, Stirling Mortlock, finds outside centre a difficult prospect on defence. He tends to rush as his first decision, allowing a good attacking backline to move around him or skip him out.
I've seen no evidence yet that Carter is anything other than a very capable player when its a straightforward role. I've not seen him play 13 even at club level. If someone is happy to provide evidence that he's a capable 13 then I'm all eyes.
naza said:
How many games have you seen Carter play the last few years, Naza? Personally, I've seen every Super game he's played in Sydney as well as a few trials here and there and about a dozen games for Uni.
I stand by my opinion: Tom's a very good club player, one of the best backs in the Shute Shield, but he's found wanting at Super level.
Carter has played at 13 in club rugby but not a lot. He looked OK too. But I'm with you Nicko - I want to be convinced that he can handle all those angles defensively. Maybe he can. But he can't have proved himself there in Super rugby if he hasn't played there.
Because of the mystery surrounding Horne, Carter has a big chance to get the 13 jersey against the Reds in Rd. 1 if he does well enough against the Fijians for Hickey to give him another go at Viking Park. This is in the context of Sidey not playing well in Lismore.
I'm glad that Barnes is 10 and Beale 12 in the 2nd trial. Given how well Beale played there in the RSA last year, I think it's his best position at this stage of his career. I think I'll go down to Canberra to watch the 3rd trial and hope that they are both picked in the same spots. Hickey doesn't have to pick Carter at 12; he knows his ability there.
naza - those were interesting stats - what were the figures for Quade Cooper?
Because of the mystery surrounding Horne, Carter has a big chance to get the 13 jersey against the Reds in Rd. 1 if he does well enough against the Fijians for Hickey to give him another go at Viking Park. This is in the context of Sidey not playing well in Lismore.
I'm glad that Barnes is 10 and Beale 12 in the 2nd trial. Given how well Beale played there in the RSA last year, I think it's his best position at this stage of his career. I think I'll go down to Canberra to watch the 3rd trial and hope that they are both picked in the same spots. Hickey doesn't have to pick Carter at 12; he knows his ability there.
naza - those were interesting stats - what were the figures for Quade Cooper?
Bruce Ross
Ken Catchpole (46)
Lee Grant said:
While you're waiting on naza's stats, Lee, let me give you some others on tackle efficiency.
These are the percentage of missed tackles for every Australian back in the 2009 Super 14 who made at least 40 tackles during that competition:
Carter 6.7
Turner 12.0
O'Connor 14.5
Fairbanks 14.5
Tuqiri 15.0
Giteau 15.6
Burgess 15.7
Sheehan 16.4
Cross 19.0
Vaalu 19.1
Lealifano 19.4
Hynes 19.5
Valentine 19.5
Phibbs 20.6
Lucas 21.2
Halangahu 23.1
Fainga'a 25.0
Tatupu 25.0
Ashley-Cooper 25.0
Ioane 25.6
Barnes 25.7
McLinden 27.3
Staniforth 27.7
To'omua 28.9
Horne 29.2
Smith 29.8
Holmes 31.8
Mitchell 33.3
Beale 33.3
Tahu 37.5
Mortlock 38.0
Cooper 42.0
These figures are derived from sarugby.com's Stats Centre
Looking at the table I have a gut feeling that maybe Carter will be able to scrape by defending at 13, although obviously you wouldn't expect him to be as efficient in defence as a specialist world-class outside centre like Mortlock - you'll find his name second from the bottom just above Quade Cooper's.
As for Carter's slowness, which some people here are particularly concerned to draw attention to, let's just wait and see whether he can keep up.
your comparing Carter to Mortlock Bruce? Come on.
Carter is an effective tackler. Bravo.
But that's about it. Oh sorry, he chases kicks well.
Cooper misses tackles, but shees he makes up for it elsewhere whereas Carter would struggle to make a break on a good day.
Carter is an effective tackler. Bravo.
But that's about it. Oh sorry, he chases kicks well.
Cooper misses tackles, but shees he makes up for it elsewhere whereas Carter would struggle to make a break on a good day.
Pfitzy
George Gregan (70)
Bruce Ross said:
Firstly, these stats (and naza's above) are based on tackle effectiveness: how many tackles they made of those attempted. To attempt a tackle the player has to be within hitting distance of his opponent.
It does NOT show defensive effectiveness overall i.e. how many times the player was caught out of position and therefore not even in a position to make the tackle. These are NOT recorded as missed tackles in stats because its too difficult to quantify how close you'd have to be without using an easily identified method such as "contact on ball carrier".
Carter does not have the LATERAL speed to play the defensive role in the 13 channel. His strong ball-carrying may be an asset there, but he also does not have the straight line speed to capitalise on breaks and so his wingers would have to play close support all the time.
I'd rather have Drew Mitchell at 13.
Carter will be fine at 13 defensively, he was good there for uni, attacking wise he is a pile of shit as he doesn't have the pace or guile to create space for his wingers.
But his chase may be interesting, with both Barnes and Beale inside him I expect a good load of kicking in behind defenses
But his chase may be interesting, with both Barnes and Beale inside him I expect a good load of kicking in behind defenses
spectator
Bob Davidson (42)
The much maligned Tom Carter... He may not have all the skills but those that he does have he uses to the max. Nothing wrong with an honest footballer IMO.
As for the apparent 13. dilemma, surely there is a guy running around in the Shute Shield who could fill in capably?
As for the apparent 13. dilemma, surely there is a guy running around in the Shute Shield who could fill in capably?
Bruce Ross
Ken Catchpole (46)
Noddy said:
Do you blokes ever give up? I try to be absolutely meticulous in what I write here because I know I'm going to cop a serve for going against the dominant view and for being a blow-in.
Did I compare Carter to Mortlock? Guilty!
On what basis did I compare them? Efficiency in defence - nothing more. Read what I said.
Why did I compare them? Because NTA, whose initial statement caused me to enter this thread had already drawn a comparison between them in respect of defence, specifically:
NTA said:
Why did I mention Cooper? Because Lee Grant had just written: "naza - those were interesting stats - what were the figures for Quade Cooper?"
Now we have NTA coming back at me:
NTA said:
NTA wants to focus on "defensive effectiveness overall i.e. how many times the player was caught out of position and therefore not even in a position to make the tackle." Obviously no one would even attempt to compile such a novel and bizarre statistic, but as a very rough proxy we might look at how busy players were defensively.
In order to make a meaningful comparison let's look at the number of tackles attempted per 80 minutes played for players who attempted at least 80 tackles during the season:
Carter 12.7
Lealifano 10.7
Giteau 10.0
Valentine 10.0
Burgess 9.7
Barnes 9.6
Cooper 8.8
Smith 8.6
Cross 7.9
Ashley-Cooper 7.2
Tuqiri 6.5
naza
Alan Cameron (40)
Bruce Ross said:
Bruce, like myself you are performing a valuable service to the community in educating several posters on here who struggle with logic, facts and the bleeding obvious. Keep it up, love your work. And nobody is giving you a serve, they're just being a bit stubborn is all.
Bruce Ross said:
:lmao: I think NTA's hero Phil Waugh would be a massive failure on his own stat.
I'm convinced I'm being wound up here. People are worried about Carter's defence and not Kurtley Beale's ? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
Bruce Ross said:
Nice one BR; one of your best quiet stirs - but NTA does have a point. We really have to see him play at the Super level at 13 first to see how he deals with the new defensive paradigm - and the offensive one too. A lot of Tahs fans are anti Carter because we look at him as a 12 who doesn't facilitate the play of the backs outside him. I have called him a firewall to the ball going out many a time but know enough about the Tahs last year to appreciate it wasn't all his fault.
When the ball did go past him (and not enough IMO) some of the skill shown by the outside backs was abominable - running towards touch, passing the ball at the running player and not being configured to launch a counter attack when a chance came. We could all mention of half a dozen more without thinking too hard. The backs from the other 3 Oz teams were better.
Sometimes we don't appreciate that enough and nor do we appreciate enough that half the game is played without the ball. That is where Carter shines as a 12 and where we have undervalued his value to the team.
Nevertheless I still want to see someone else there at 12 when the season starts to see how it goes.
I
spectator said:
I thought we had one to cover for Horne speckie: Rory Sidey; but apparently he had a shocker in Lismore. Surprised me, as I never saw him have a shocker in Sydney Club rugby before he went overseas, nor for the Dragons club in Europe.
There's a young bloke in the Tahs Academy, Tim Bennetts, who played well for Eastwood in 2009 and looks like he could start for the Tahs a few years down the track after he has learned his trade, but I wouldn't think of starting him this year.
It will be interesting to read about how Carter goes tonight in the trial at 13 and if Horne is still not right, hope he plays there at Viking Park where I can see him in action.
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