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COVID-19 Stuff Here

Brumby Runner

Tim Horan (67)
NSW only requires them to isolate for 7 days.

Queensland has changed their ruling and said that only people within two rows are close contacts and need to isolate. The others are casual contacts and just need a negative test.

The problem with Queensland is they were effectively making it up on the fly. No one was told before getting on the flight that if there was a single positive case on their flight that they would then have to isolate for 14 days.
Really pretty dumb if they had to be told there would/might be ramifications.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Nathan Sharpe (72)
Sometimes you've just gotta sit back & say to yourself, "Fuck me, how come nobody else thought of this?"

"Covid 19 Omicron: Expert advises 'keeping it out for as long as possible'"
 

WorkingClassRugger

Simon Poidevin (60)
So how bad are things in NSW? If you believe the press and govt over here in the West you'd think it was armageddon.

Well, it certainly hasn't stopped people getting out and about. The great majority of whom are maskless since the mandatory order ended. Out a dinner last night only saw a handful of masked up people in a very busy group of restaurants.
 

Braveheart81

James Horwill (77)
Staff member
The focus here is on how many cases there are in NSW, but it sounds like you blokes aren't too worried.

The COVID zero people are losing their minds.

All the talk is about how QR codes being canned at shops (still in use at pubs/clubs and other high risk/density locations) and mandatory masks indoors is sending things out of control.

My view is that looking at Omicron cases elsewhere in the world that this is way more transmissible than Delta and cases are going to skyrocket everywhere regardless.

We are now highly vaccinated and have to use that. I still wear a mask at the shops and don't plan to change that but likewise am not really fussed that it isn't mandatory. The people who are now not wearing a mask have had them on their chins or with their nose sticking out the whole time so they weren't effective anyway.

Most concern is around avoiding being a close contact somewhere so you don't get put in self isolation for Christmas.

I think it is pretty much inevitable that everyone is going to get this strain at some point.
 

waiopehu oldboy

Nathan Sharpe (72)
NZ seems to be taking a dual approach to the emergence of Omicron: on the one hand they're pushing back MIQ-free travel from Aus for citizens & residents from mid-Jan to late Feb (no word yet on the other dates incl late April which is the one that'll impact SRP if changed) & on the other going all-in on vaccinations: 5-11yo's can get jabbed from 17 Jan & as of early Jan everyone who's double-jabbed can get a booster four months after their second dose. By late Feb 82% of the 12+ population will have become eligible for a booster. Uptake rates so far have been pretty good so far, most days there's more booster- than second-dose shots being given (first shots have reduced to a trickle which remains the biggest problem IMO).
 

Rob42

Nev Cottrell (35)
The COVID zero people are losing their minds.

All the talk is about how QR codes being canned at shops (still in use at pubs/clubs and other high risk/density locations) and mandatory masks indoors is sending things out of control.

My view is that looking at Omicron cases elsewhere in the world that this is way more transmissible than Delta and cases are going to skyrocket everywhere regardless.

We are now highly vaccinated and have to use that. I still wear a mask at the shops and don't plan to change that but likewise am not really fussed that it isn't mandatory. The people who are now not wearing a mask have had them on their chins or with their nose sticking out the whole time so they weren't effective anyway.

Most concern is around avoiding being a close contact somewhere so you don't get put in self isolation for Christmas.

I think it is pretty much inevitable that everyone is going to get this strain at some point.
Yes, getting isolated for Christmas, or spoiling family travel early in the New Year are bigger concerns for me right now than the actual disease.

My pick is that cases will continue to push up until a week after Christmas - the natural post-Christmas lockdown (lying on the couch watching cricket) will probably lead to less transmission.

At least this time the talking heads are only calling for masks and QR codes to be reinstated - perhaps they've learnt something from the Delta outbreak: the NSW "laissez-faire" approach ended up not that much different in outcome to the Victorian "go hard, go early" approach.
 

Derpus

Tim Horan (67)

cyclopath

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Staff member

Lindommer

Steve Williams (59)
I suspect the data the Doherty crew enter is the worst it could possibly engender, anything less is good news.
 

stoff

Cyril Towers (30)
I suspect the data the Doherty crew enter is the worst it could possibly engender, anything less is good news.
The Burnet model for Victoria in September said:
  • In the roadmap scenario, the significant easing of restrictions at 80% vaccine coverage led to 63% of simulations exceeding 2500 hospital demand, and resulted in a second epidemic peak over mid-December.
I think we were at 400ish average. I think the only thing that has been really shown by the modelling is that is extremely difficult to model this pandemic.

Not surprising really given the variables.
 

Tex

John Thornett (49)
My daughter has just been a close contact at her work. There goes our first full family Christmas in 10 years.
Ours has been scaled back dramatically, Sully. Cousin has covid and will clear his isolation on Christmas eve, but with other family members managing cystic fibrosis and cancer remissions, we're not going to risk it.

Hope your daughter is all clear.
 

Braveheart81

James Horwill (77)
Staff member
Doherty's modelling has not proved to be that reliable.
I suspect the data the Doherty crew enter is the worst it could possibly engender, anything less is good news.

I think it is misreading of the modelling. This is definitely the worst case scenario taking a number of assumptions that are all incredibly unlikely to happen. Certainly it is starting from the basis that Omicron causes just as severe disease as Delta which we are already pretty certain is untrue. There is no available information to say that is the case and plenty to say it isn't.

Where they received lots of criticism with the previous modelling around re-opening was also a failure to understand what they were modelling. They were taking the position of opening at a certain vaccination level and from that point there would be no further vaccinations, TTIQ and restrictions etc. The idea is to create a baseline for which you can disaster plan.

I would put any amount of money on Australia not getting to 200k cases a day. Regardless of whether we have restrictions in place or not, people take actions to protect themselves based on their perceived risk. People going to pubs and restaurants and other public indoor spaces will plummet as cases rise whether there are restrictions in place or not.

More people will wear a mask and avoid the shops as much as possible as cases rise whether they have to or not.
 

Dctarget

Simon Poidevin (60)
Forgive me for being potentially callous but isn’t this how we beat covid? Get vaccinated, be boosted, it’s going to run through our population with hopefully minimal deaths. This was always going to happen no?
 

Braveheart81

James Horwill (77)
Staff member
Forgive me for being potentially callous but isn’t this how we beat covid? Get vaccinated, be boosted, it’s going to run through our population with hopefully minimal deaths. This was always going to happen no?

I'm not sure it is. Omicron is causing breakthrough infections in a lot of people who have already had COVID and/or are vaccinated so it is unclear whether this will provide long term immunity from a future strain.

Hopefully though because it does seem like this is the strain that a large percentage of the population are going to get.
 
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