SuperRugby Waratahs V Crusaders, Rd 10 2012

[suckerforred]

Hate to rain on your parade guys, but I think that the Tahs are really going to struggle this week. The Saders seem to have got back to their old cru form last week and I can't see them having an off week as they seem to have been improving week by week.

Yes I know you can swear at me and say I am just Queenslander, but really........ what has the higher probability for this weekend? The Crusaders turning up and playing an absolute shocker or the Tahs reversing their form of the last 9 weeks despite another brace of injuries.

Saders by 15.

 

[Braveheart81]

If you read the first two pages, you'd see that we have already predicted heavy rain for parade day.

 

[suckerforred]

If you read the first two pages, you'd see that we have already predicted heavy rain for parade day.

I did read the first two pages. Yes there was heavy rain, but also a few patches of sunshine.

 

[Gnostic]

Hawko you said earlier that I was delusional for predicting the possibility of a record score. Well maybe it wont be more than 96 points, but I cannot see anything less than a humiliation unless Suzie is cooking for them. This is based on actual form and form trending of the teams.

Point 4 above. People's criticism of Gaffney is misplaced IMO. As I posted in the Tahs 2013 thread, the backs are playing like they have since 1999 or eariler. It doesn't matter who the coach or players are the same results are obtained. When I asked that question last year I received much angst. Another year on new head coach, new backs coach, largely the same players, result no different. Why?

Have a look at the Tahs plays, their set up is good and the players aren't bad. The problem as it always has been is in the execution. The catch pass skills are poor from both halfback and 10. The line of attack is very deep with the ball passed before contact and without the defenders being committed. Kicks from hand are worfully inaccurate and invariably do not advance the teams territorial possession or allow them to preasure for the possession. The foolish commentatos have largely hijacked the debate regarding kicking reducing it to a simple argument of volume. Volume of kicking is largely irrelevant, expect when there is perhaps too little (see Brumbies 2011). The only important factor to consider regarding kicking from hand IMO is the quality of the kicks. COntrast all the Tahs games of the last 5 years with those of the Bulls. The Bulls are much more conservative than the Tahs but 95% or more of their kicks either gain territory or are very contestable.

Now to Gafney. He has been brought into a sick system which no coach in the last 15 years has influenced. Will he be the latest in a long line to be blamed for a system that achieves an average to above average result, but never achieves the potential of the players signed to its roster?

 

[fatprop]

I was assuming, as I thought you were, that Foley would be picking Hangers at 10, fp.

yeah, but I would prefer Barnes, Carter & Kingston in 10 12 & 13.

Hangers is so calm he is comatose

 

[Braveheart81]

So Paka on one wing and who on the other? Trist? Play Pretorius on the wing and put Grayson Hart on the bench at halfback? The return of BKH?

Hangers is so calm he didn't even bother doing up his shoelaces during the halftime break before he came on during the Rebels match.

 

[Joe Mac]

Please explain how Barnes, on this year's form, can be classed as a game winner.

Hawko, its going to be hard for me to explain how Barnes is classed as a game winner "On this years form" seeing I never said that...

 

[Hawko]

Point 4 above. People's criticism of Gaffney is misplaced IMO. As I posted in the Tahs 2013 thread, the backs are playing like they have since 1999 or eariler. It doesn't matter who the coach or players are the same results are obtained. When I asked that question last year I received much angst. Another year on new head coach, new backs coach, largely the same players, result no different. Why?

Now to Gafney. He has been brought into a sick system which no coach in the last 15 years has influenced. Will he be the latest in a long line to be blamed for a system that achieves an average to above average result, but never achieves the potential of the players signed to its roster?

How do I or anyone else start to blame a "system"? A system is not even an inanimate object. A system is a pattern of activity imposed by a person or group of persons, in this case the coaches. Too bad if coaches for the last ten years haven't made the changes necessary, the coaches right now are responsible to make them. I so much want to make these changes that I don't care if we lose every match from here to round 18 if it means we can establish a mode of play that is successful Waratahs rugby for the future (we wouldn't lose either if we joined our pack skills with better attack). I want to see back play like was shown in the first 30 seconds last week, and then put away in the cupboard for the rest of the game. I want us to try and run the ball often, even if we stuff it up. I want us to run onto the ball at pace. I want us to play with urgency. I want us to pass in front of the man. I don't want to see another midfield bomb - we shouldn't play like we were playing from the Bulls playbook. I want to see accurate kicking for the corners to put teams under pressure and get the ball back in their half.

Its always the coaches' jobs to establish the pattern of play. They can't control the referee, they can't control the other team they can only control the players they lead.

 

[Hawko]

Hawko, its going to be hard for me to explain how Barnes is classed as a game winner "On this years form" seeing I never said that...

Review your post. You listed Barnes, TPN, Fat Cat and Palu (plus Mitchell) as "game winners" (next para down).

Excuse my grumpiness, but I'm having an outbreak of severe frustration at yet another year of wasted opportunity and the injury gods displeasure.

 

[Lee Grant]

Watched the Waratahs train this afternoon, but it was hard to get a read on which back is going to play in which position because Barnes didn't train. He was a bit off-colour and was sent home at the start of the session. Maybe because his wife is expecting a baby had something to do with it too.

Pretorious seemed to be training more with the Ones (those without the bibs) but later McKibbin practised with them wearing the bib.

Hangers practised at 10 but it has no significance with Barnes not there. The only thing for sure is that both Betham and Pakalani will be involved in the 22 and at least one of them has to start - probably the contracted player, Pakalani. These two practised on the wing, Carter was 1st centre, Kingston 2nd centre, and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) was 3rd centre.

What does that mean? Read the tea leaves?

In the forwards Palu did not train, but did some boxing, as did Mitchell, who has been doing some running for the last couple of weeks. The Tahs have Palu running only every 2nd session and reckon that's the way to go with him. Kingston also misses some sessions come to think of it, especially the one after the game as he gets very sore afterwards.

PS - there is no doubt who is the captain of the squad. Rocky won't be starting on Sunday but he lays down the law at training.

 

[qwerty51]

Is Turner there? What state is he in?

 

[Nusadan]

There is one chance. If Kaplan gets an early injury then Joubert comes on. Now, where's that Kaplan voodoo doll I had stashed?

Pay someone in the Blues crowd to stick his leg out and trip over Kaplan when he is running the line in Auckland on Friday night...

 

[Hawko]

Watched the Waratahs train this afternoon, but it was hard to get a read on which back is going to play in which position.

Hangers practised at 10 but it has no significance with Barnes not there. The only thing for sure is that both Betham and Pakalani will be involved in the 22 and at least one of them has to start - probably the contracted player, Pakalani. These two practised on the wing, Carter was 1st centre, Kingston 2nd centre, and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) was 3rd centre.

What does that mean?

That they played with three centres and no fullback? Or maybe Bruce will get his wish and Barnes will play 15 and they were just keeping his spot open? Or that we will use a flat attack with AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) right up in the line?

Was it wet Lee, that Mitchell was kept out of danger?

 

[Lee Grant]

qwerty

Turner wasn't there. Word is that he won't play any Super games this year.

Hawko

They didn't play with a fullback but it was more like training drills than anything; so I wouldn't get too excited. It was interesting that Kingston was always next to Carter though.

Mitchell didn't run today and in the past two weeks he has just been running up and down not changing direction. He is a better chance than Turner to play for the Tahs this year but it's a small chance.

 

[Ruggo]

Is Turner there? What state is he in?

I am going to have a pot shot and say he is in NSW.

 

[Gnostic]

How do I or anyone else start to blame a "system"? A system is not even an inanimate object. A system is a pattern of activity imposed by a person or group of persons, in this case the coaches. Too bad if coaches for the last ten years haven't made the changes necessary, the coaches right now are responsible to make them. I so much want to make these changes that I don't care if we lose every match from here to round 18 if it means we can establish a mode of play that is successful Waratahs rugby for the future (we wouldn't lose either if we joined our pack skills with better attack). I want to see back play like was shown in the first 30 seconds last week, and then put away in the cupboard for the rest of the game. I want us to try and run the ball often, even if we stuff it up. I want us to run onto the ball at pace. I want us to play with urgency. I want us to pass in front of the man. I don't want to see another midfield bomb - we shouldn't play like we were playing from the Bulls playbook. I want to see accurate kicking for the corners to put teams under pressure and get the ball back in their half.

Its always the coaches' jobs to establish the pattern of play. They can't control the referee, they can't control the other team they can only control the players they lead.

Hawko if I am the CEO and I say to you and the players, to satisfy the terms of your contract and ensure your continuation you will perform to X level (make the semis). To gain a bonus you will do Y (make the final/win). The coach/manager looks at those performance criteria and says to achieve X I must do ABC with the players/employees. To achieve Y I must do....

Fine you say that is wonderful and should gain the title at some point. I could direct you to quite a few studies that show KPIs can be used to motivate but in many cases instead of motivating they cause the stagnation of action by having people perform to X. They do enough and meet their performance criteria only.

How many times have you seen the Waratahs go out and do enough? How many times have you seen them start off as usual then get smashed and just fall away as their enough just does carry the day. Have you ever asked why it is they just don't step up, not once in the last 5 years. They are consistant, and consistantly above average but never, not since Macqueen coached them to a 60 point win over Wales, have they excelled and stepped above that bit above pass mark.

Mackenzie is a good coach, Scott Johnson a very good coach, Foley a good coach, Bob Dwyer, Tim Lane, etc etc etc. The system dictates the output of the team. No matter who you put in charge until the coaches and team play to win, with all the inherant risks of loss they will not make the final step. Indeed as their star players age and the new stars go to teams that want to win (as opposed to a team that doesn't want to lose) they gradually move back down the table to accupy that little bit above average spot.

If somebody else can tell me why after so many years, players and coaches the Tahs still play the same with the same poor execution, average results I am willing to listen. I do not accept that the coaches have all been shit, or the players all shit, in fact in many instances they have been world class, or the excuse that injuries have been to blame for many failures. Nowhere have I mentioned another team or the referees. They have no impact or input in this discussion. To blame the coaches again after more than a decade and a half of the same Merry Go Round is simplistic and a recipe for another turn of the cycle.

 

[TSR]

I hope they play Kingston at 13. I've been impressed each time I've seen him play on the wing and would like to see how he goes in his normal position. Can't hurt to have him closer to the action.

 

[qwerty51]

qwerty

Turner wasn't there. Word is that he won't play any Super games this year.

Ah right, I only ask because there was a picture of him in training gear with Rocky on scrum.com today

I am going to have a pot shot and say he is in NSW.

 

[waratahjesus]

@Gnostic,

The "system" is a cop out to me.
I dnt believe the people the Tahs have in place are poor at there jobs, I don't believe they play to KPIs. If as you suggested we follow the hypothetical "to save your job you must produce "x" number of wins" how can anyone translate that Into a group of sportsmen sitting round with there coaches going, well you know I love competition and winning but instead of trusting my ability how about we just try to score two quick try's then out kicks in to around the 20 metre line and then relyon our defense to hold onto the game. It makes no sense whatsoever and I just don't buy it.

The execution has been poor on number of occasions for a number of years, on an equal number of occasions the execution has also been good. We never seem tk discuss this fact, I realize you brout up the Tahs being consistently good and I think more so thanth system being rotten, this point may be more to blame with the style of play the actual problem.

When people criticized Phil Waugh last year for being responsible for the limited game plan and width that the Tahs played with I couldn't help but feel, maybe, maybe he is, but also that the tight forward game and grinding was something that harked back many years to the time people forget, when the Tahs sucked balls, when we went entire games barely winning a line out on our own throw, when we actually prayed for a dunning intercept or Duncan mcCrae moving to 5/8 might just be the spark we were looking for. I think this spirit, witch actually came about as a way to harden up the Tahs and produced the side that is now consistantly in the mix is maybe there biggest problem.

I was having a chat to a friend who does statistical annylasis for a rugby league club the other day, the club he is at has had a quite successful run over the last few years and I was asking how they go about turn over (in relation to the growden thread about 5 Tahs players moving on) what he said was basically that they are at the end of there 5 year window and were about to turn over 40-60 percent of players in the next three years as to embark on another one. He explained the cyclic nature of rugby league under the salary cap and basically said statistically over the past decade or longer a team that blooded a core group together nd managed to keep them together have done better results wise than a group that recruits to stay on top.

I found this very interesting that they were willing and openly planning to take a hit and possibly be uncompetitive for up to three years in order to believe they could win a championship.

When you look at rugby teams like the reds, brumbies, stormers, chiefs I believe this may be true, they have built on a foundation, and while they have recruited the people they have have been to complement what they already have.

While NSW hasn't recruited heavily at all in my belief and while they have had a core playing together, I dontthink the team has ever over the past decade taken that hit in order to freshen things up and begin again with a truly fresh approach, I don't see this as a system problem but maybe with an expectation problem. I dnt believe foley was hired to build a team, he was hired to guide one. I dnt believe he sits there checking off KPIs, but rather feels the burden of expectation not to take chances.

At this point in my ramblings I think I have talked myself round a bit and would accept calling it a "system" problem, but I think it's much deeper and maybe psychological rather than office related.

 

[Gnostic]

WJ you were one of the most strident last year in criticism of my essay on the Tahs. Go back and have a look with the benefit of hindsight and what you have written here and tell me now what you think.

What you have discribed, as you say towards the end of your post, is the "system" for want of a better term that I spoke about last year. The KPI problem that I speak of impacts not by having people sit and tick them off, but by justifying consistant just above average results. Have a look at the attitudes displayed at the Fan Forum, look at what Hickey and Co said regarding the fans and expectations. They were happy with their performance, indeed Hickey honestly believed he had performed to his required standard and should have been retained.

The teams you named the Blues, Chiefs especially have similar issues to the Tahs, but more significantly have issues with playing focus and tactics. For instance before this year the Chief avoided forward play. Yes they have recruited a few players over the last two years but a fundamental coaching change was a big factor also.

The best example of a brilliant Rugby system is the Crusaders. No matter which players stepped in they have invariably performed. Regardless of injuries, earthquakes, or any other factor you can name you know they will be genuine contenders every year. The systems guarentee it almost. That feeds into the confidence of the players and how they play. They then get the rub of the green from the Refs and on its goes. They do not have any great clean outs but through natural attrition and genuine contest for spots on form constantly renew and refresh the squad.