Waratahs vs Force - 2011R12

[qwerty51]

I'm sure it's already been suggested, but maybe TPN can start wearing headgear?

Headgear doesn't stop concussion imo, it's just a false sense of security.

 

[drewprint]

Headgear doesn't stop concussion imo, it's just a false sense of security.

Absolutely. But I'm sure it would help.

 

[matty_k]

It didn't help Berrick.

 

[drewprint]

His head knocks may have been more regular, and more severe, without it. That's 100% speculation, but then so is your assertion that what doesn't work for one person won't work for another.

Anyway, I just want what's best for the lad, and measures such as this may, may, go about helping him prolong his career.

 

[vidiot]

The theory that wearing headgear makes a player less careful with his scone in contact would have interesting ramifications for Taf, who appears to do everything head first.

 

[Shiggins]

It's good that tpn is not playing. I'm not saying that as a force fan but as a wallaby supporter. Maybe he will think more about his missile style and will cone back smarter too prolong his career.

This will be a hard fort game and it's hard too say who will take it away. The force need too learn too play the same each week and not play teams on there capabilities. we almost always make every game a nail biter. If we played at our best for most the season we could be right up the ladder. But I will say I think we have played too those capabilities for the last 3 weeks ( even though we lost too the saders). This is defenatly a game the force can win if they continue on from the past 3 weeks performance.


Go the force!!!!

 

[matty_k]

His head knocks may have been more regular, and more severe, without it. That's 100% speculation, but then so is your assertion that what doesn't work for one person won't work for another.

You're also making the same assertion that it will work for Taf but there is only really one way to find out and only Taf can make that decision. Unless Sharon gets in his ear then he likely to whatever he is told.

 

[Jnor]

The theory that wearing headgear makes a player less careful with his scone in contact would have interesting ramifications for Taf, who appears to do everything head first.

Even if headgear doesn't prevent concussions (which I think has been proven) it's a spurious argument to say that wearing it makes you more likely to do dangerous things. It's the same argument people used when seatbelts were first introduced in cars - or airbags, or ABS.

Am I more likely to ride my motorbike like an idiot when I'm wearing a helmet because it makes me feel indestructible? I don't think so, the potential for great injury is still there and will always be there. Same on the rugby field.

PS this isn't a dig at you vidiot, just a general comment.

 

[Hawko]

It's good that tpn is not playing. I'm not saying that as a force fan but as a wallaby supporter. Maybe he will think more about his missile style and will cone back smarter too prolong his career.

This will be a hard fort game and it's hard too say who will take it away. The force need too learn too play the same each week and not play teams on there capabilities. we almost always make every game a nail biter. If we played at our best for most the season we could be right up the ladder. But I will say I think we have played too those capabilities for the last 3 weeks ( even though we lost too the saders). This is defenatly a game the force can win if they continue on from the past 3 weeks performance.

Force fans appear to be deliberately underating their chances. Based on the personnel available and the form at the moment I reckon the Tahs should be at $4+ and the Force at about $1.25 for the win.

 

[qwerty51]

I give us no chance. If the Tahs come out favourites I'm heading straight to the TAB.

 

[ChargerWA]

When I checked Superbru last night, the majority of the tipsters picked the Tahs. Tah's will be favourite at the TAB.

 

[TheTruth]

Tahs will need to be on mettle for this one - bit like Reds last week - cannot afford to lose this week and having TPN out is a major blow (certainly to the morale)

 

[Brumbies Guy]

Force fans appear to be deliberately underating their chances. Based on the personnel available and the form at the moment I reckon the Tahs should be at $4+ and the Force at about $1.25 for the win.

Don't ever take up bookmaking.

 

[Hawko]

When I checked Superbru last night, the majority of the tipsters picked the Tahs. Tah's will be favourite at the TAB.

Based on past weeks, the majority of players have not yet made their picks. Most leave it till the last minute to have a look at the teams. If by tipsters you mean the specialist that Superbru employ to help us dud pickers to get it right, then I suggest they haven't looked at the individual match-ups. One on one, I reckon the Tahs have 4 players playing better, 2 players about the same and 9 players playing worse. And don't even think about the bench or the coaching staff! We'd have to spend half the game scrummaging to get any sort of performance parity.

BG, With regards to being a bookmaker, you set the original odds based on the likely result (in your opinion) and then modify the odds as you see the money flow in, and if necessary make side bets to cover possible major losses from large single bets. I reckon based on form and personnel that is where the odds should start. If lots of Tahs start to take those odds, then I would shorten the odds. But (IMO) that's a reasonable starting point.

 

[drewprint]

You're also making the same assertion that it will work for Taf but there is only really one way to find out and only Taf can make that decision. Unless Sharon gets in his ear then he likely to whatever he is told.

I think it would help, yes.

 

[Bruce Ross]

Based on the personnel available and the form at the moment I reckon the Tahs should be at $4+ and the Force at about $1.25 for the win.

Don't ever take up bookmaking.

It is unclear what odds Hawko was referring to - true odds or the odds a bookmaker would offer.

At $1.25 he is giving the Force an 80% chance of winning.

At $4.00 he would be giving the 'Tahs a 25% chance of winning. If these were the odds and the only possible outcomes the sum of the probabilities would be 105%, so a bookmaker offering these odds would be bettiing 5% "over-round" which would mean that over time he would expect to win 5% of the total amount bet with him.

But Hawko specified $4+ for the 'Tahs. Let's assume that $4.50 is offered. This would equate to a probability of 22.2%, meaning that our bookmaker would still be betting 2.2% over-round.

But we still have to factor in the small probability of a draw which would add to our hypothetical bookmaker's return.

So we cannot necessarily assume that if Hawko takes up bookmaking he will "finish up wearing a sandshoe and a galosher", to revive a wonderful old race course saying.

 

[Lee Grant]

Brucie - I doubt if many of the forum members know what galoshes are, but it brought back memories for me of younger, wet days.

Of course we took them off and put them in our school bags as soon as we got around the corner from home so the lads at school didn't think we were sooks when we arrived. But if we weren't careful putting them in the bag they could give the sandwiches an odd taste at lunch time, couldn't they?


The Tahs should win this game but I remember when the Force deserved to beat the Reds and Blues - and their victory against the Bulls. I also recall when the Tahs had their shocker at the SFS against the Cheetahs, when at half-time, and 3-6 down, I said to the guy sitting next to me: "You know - the Tahs could lose this one, and it would serve them right." The Tin Ears took the 2nd half 17-0.

If I were a Force fan I would hope for another wet night in Sydney. The Tahs have many faults but the Rebels exposed the wet match fault: an inability to play in wet conditions because they are poor kicking from hand.

Before the game I knew that Gerrard would confirm my contention that he should be in Wallaby squads and not play a test - until there was a wet game. He and Huxley were always going to kick from hand better than any of the Tahs and Cipriani added to the kicking arsenal when he came on.

A wet night, and run, Rabbit, run, could do it for the Force, but if they let the Tahs forwards control the game it will go the other way.

I bet that hooker John Ulugia and Nick Seymour (most likely on the bench) are having nightmares about Sharpie already.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Lee, if the Tahs are fair dinkum about playing finals footy, they should be up for this, injuries or not. I get the sense that all is not right in Tah-land right now though and they could easily brick it in this game. The way I see it, the Force could attack the Tahs in a couple of key areas: the lineout, where Sharpie could scarcely be playing any better right now and at the breakdown, where Pocock and Co. will be giving Hickey a nervous twitch just thinking about it. If they starve the Tahs of the pill, they could well win this game. Several Tah players are going to have to step and show how serious they are as footballers this week.

 

[Hawko]

Just to reinforce the one-on-one comparison based on current form:
Robinson vs Tucky Tahs better
Ulugia vs Charles Force much better
Kepu vs Cowan Tahs much better
Mumm vs Sharpe Force much better
Timani vs Wykes Close. Force maybe slightly better but lets call it even
Dennis vs Brown Tahs better but Brown playing pretty well
McCutcheon vs Pocock Force infinitely better
Mowen vs McCalman Close but McCalman a bit in front
Burgess vs Sheehan Force clearly better over the last few weeks
Barnes vs Ripia Tahs better
Anesi vs Cummins Force way better
Carter vs O'Connor Force better
Cross vs Dellit Force better
Turner vs Smith Tahs better
Beale vs Shephard Close. Beale is playing way below his best and Shephard is on the up. Lets call it even
Total: Tahs 5 Force 8 Even 2

Can someone please tell me how the Tahs can possibly be favourites, by any measure? Its not even close!

TBH. All is not right in Tahland. Our best players in their position - TPN, Palu, Waugh, Horne, Mitchell are all crocked. Three of these players are world class. Take Sharpe, Pocock and O'Connor out of the Force and they would look pretty sick too.

 

[Lee Grant]

As usual the player v. player ratings will be meaningless compared to how 15 play against 15 and especially the 8 versus the other 8.

Hawko - the Tahs will be the favourites with the bookies.