In response to Realdeal's query on age group expectations
First, let me preface that while prior year form can be a guide, there are some "X" factors that can really throw the form guide out the window.
The big "X" factor this year is that the age group rules have changed. If a boy was born after 31 October in previous year, he was allowed to play in the younger year if he wished. However, it is now all based on your age at 1 January in alignment with the ARU / QJRU age group rules. So some schools will see a few of their "A" players from last year move up into higher age groups. I am not sure of all the key movements this year.
Other "X" factors include new players, Year Group Immersions making players unavailable for certain weekends and even the home and away games. Some schools just perform abysmally away from their home ground at the moment.
So picking up on an earlier post in response to Realdeal, the 2nd XV and 3rd XV were mentioned. These are hard to pick, because the makeup of the First XV from two age/year groups can push good players down. Last year TSS dominated (undefeated) Opens because their year cohort's average age was well over 18, whereas most other schools struggle to get an average age much over 17.5. So once again, TSS would be favourites. Then in this age group last year GT was undefeated in all teams below the 16A's, so you would think they would be in the running. Then the next best school was NC where, excluding the losses to GT, only lost one other game during the entire season in the teams below the 16A's.
So in 2ndXV, 3rd XV I would say - TSS, GT, NC
16A's - this is a real flakey age group to pick the winner on past form because many of the gun players from 15's migrate into the First XV. However, BBC were undefeated last year in 15A's and do not seem to have lost too many up into their First XV. I do note that some of the games that BBC played in the 15A's were close calls. So if they go into the season believing their own press, then there could still be an upset. NC have been traditionally strong in this age group, being undefeated when they were 13's and 14's. However, last year, injuries to key players (from on and off field incidents) and I believe unavailability due to early T3 Immersion may have affected performance. ACGS lost two matches last year in 15's, and from very few of this team going into First XV should be thereabouts.
So in 16A's - BBC, NC and ACGS
15A's - NC and IGS topped the unofficial ladder in the 14A's last year, with one loss each. While NC have some v. good players, I thought their team work and tactics gave them the edge over other teams. I do not believe the NC team lose too many if any players up into the older age group with the new age rules. IGS seemed to rely on brute strength and individual skills and a lack of depth in the age group will always bight. The GT team in this age group were undefeated in the prior year when they were 13 but lost two matches to NC and an inconsistent BBC. I have heard they have lost at least 5 key players to the older age group so will be difficult for them to challenge unless key players really step up. BBC had the talent, but could not stick with it every game, maybe a further year of maturity will give them the week to week resolve
So in 15A's - NC, BBC and GT/IGS
14A's - NC by a country mile were undefeated last year as 13A's. Class players all over the field and well coached last year and will be again this year. They have picked up a big dynamic no8/centre and none of their key players are moving up to an older age group and their coach has also been the most successful "A" coach at Nudgee over last couple of years. A well coached ACGS team were the next best, only losing to NC. They grinded out a lot of their games and one key forward was a standout with his pilfering and defence to hold the other teams at bay. It may be difficult for them to repeat. GT lost two matches to NC and ACGS but had promising moments during the year. I have heard they are losing their big forwards to the older age group, so may lose some muscle up front. BBC may be the smokey but last year they were too inconsistent and their "additions" this year will have to really walk the talk to make a difference.
So in 14A's - NC, BBC and GT
13A's - can sometimes be a mystery until you see the teams gel together. I hear NC and BSHS have the cattle to successfully challenge most teams. If coaching is going to be the key factor, I would be leaning to NC based on the way their 13's played a well structured game last year. IGS have some big boppers but not much of a clue at the moment on how to play rugby. I have heard BBC have some good rugby players from around the traps, so they will also be putting up a good game as long as they are playing for each other.
So in 13A's NC, BSHS and BBC
I will leave the Firsts for another couple of weeks when team lists start to solidify.
