Aussie Player Exodus

[dru]

We couldn't/souldn't keep older guys like him and also a whole lot of younger guys in Australia with 5 sides. We're now told by RA that running 4 sides will be better.

Pertinent, but not really to Fardy. He has gone because Cheika could not identify the obvious skill and ability to run to 2019.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Right on the money Dru. Cheika certainly has issues when it comes to identifying and using good players. He also invariably over-rates quite a few very ordinary performers.

 

[Rebels3]

He's been playing lock as well, a position we had been desperate to fill for years.

 

[Braveheart81]

Fardy should have been picked for the Wallabies in 2017 before he left but would RA have been wise to bet on him being top drawer two years later at the end of 2019 aged 35?

Seems like a bad bet to have offered him a big contract to stay around for two more years.

 

[fatprop]

It is a strange old list

EPCR European Player of the Year award nominees

Tadhg Beirne (Scarlets)
Levani Botia (La Rochelle)
Gareth Davies (Scarlets)
Scott Fardy (Leinster Rugby)
Owen Farrell (Saracens)
Tadhg Furlong (Leinster Rugby)
Conor Murray (Munster Rugby)
Isa Nacewa (Leinster Rugby)
Morgan Parra (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
Leone Nakarawa (Racing 92)
Dany Priso (La Rochelle)
Alivereti Raka (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
Jonathan Sexton (Leinster Rugby)
Josua Tuisova (RC Toulon)
Victor Vito (La Rochelle)

There are some ancient humans still running around in Europe

 

[TOCC]

Australian Rugby seems to disdain anyone over 30, it’s annoyed me for years that we do this. That list is evidenced that you scan still play, and be very competitive into your early 30s.

Fardy should have been picked for the Wallabies in 2017 before he left but would RA have been wise to bet on him being top drawer two years later at the end of 2019 aged 35?

Seems like a bad bet to have offered him a big contract to stay around for two more years.

Its not really that different then hedging your bets that a 22yr old will be a top drawer players when he is 24/25, which is something RA regularly do.

 

[Braveheart81]

Australian Rugby seems to disdain anyone over 30, it’s annoyed me for years that we do this. That list is evidenced that you scan still play, and be very competitive into your early 30s.



In my opinion it’s no different then hedging your bets that a 22yr old will be a top drawer players when he is 24/25 which is something RA regularly do.

We had 9 of our 2015 RWC squad that were 30 or over. I agree with you that players can be very good into their 30s but it becomes an increasingly unpredictable how they will go into the future and the rate at which they decline once it happens can be frighteningly fast. Based on our current crop of players I'd bet we have 10 or 11 who are 30 or over in our 2019 RWC squad. One of the challenges is that many of these players are close to the peak of their earning potential at that age so there is a big risk taken when a lot of the money you are paying for that player is on the basis that you are expecting them to be a starting Wallaby over the course of that contract.

 

[fatprop]

Right on the money Dru. Cheika certainly has issues when it comes to identifying and using good players. He also invariably over-rates quite a few very ordinary performers.

Really? there always going to be some churn, but he has had some solid wins as well But lets just tag him with the ones that don't make it immediately.

 

[Rebels3]

It is a strange old list

EPCR European Player of the Year award nominees

Tadhg Beirne (Scarlets)
Levani Botia (La Rochelle)
Gareth Davies (Scarlets)
Scott Fardy (Leinster Rugby)
Owen Farrell (Saracens)
Tadhg Furlong (Leinster Rugby)
Conor Murray (Munster Rugby)
Isa Nacewa (Leinster Rugby)
Morgan Parra (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
Leone Nakarawa (Racing 92)
Dany Priso (La Rochelle)
Alivereti Raka (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
Jonathan Sexton (Leinster Rugby)
Josua Tuisova (RC Toulon)
Victor Vito (La Rochelle)

There are some ancient humans still running around in Europe

Some strange nominations there, some on more recent performances than anything, some only been there half a season, some were been called to be dropped from national team but played very well in Lions, etc. Very surprised that Mako Vunipola isn't in there. Ultimately it should be out of Vito, Nakarawa, Furlong and Farrell.

 

[Braveheart81]

Its not really that different then hedging your bets that a 22yr old will be a top drawer players when he is 24/25, which is something RA regularly do.

Unless that 22 year old is already first choice, you're probably not paying them close to what you're paying the 30+ or 50+ test Wallaby (like Fardy). You're also not risking that their ability will decline due to age. Clearly contracting any player is a risk but someone under 25 at least provides you with the probability that they should be getting better, not worse.

 

[TOCC]

We had 9 of our 2015 RWC squad that were 30 or over. I agree with you that players can be very good into their 30s but it becomes an increasingly unpredictable how they will go into the future and the rate at which they decline once it happens can be frighteningly fast. Based on our current crop of players I'd bet we have 10 or 11 who are 30 or over in our 2019 RWC squad. One of the challenges is that many of these players are close to the peak of their earning potential at that age so there is a big risk taken when a lot of the money you are paying for that player is on the basis that you are expecting them to be a starting Wallaby over the course of that contract.

2 out of the 9 were European based players, not Australian based, in the interest of this thread my issue is with not retaining those players in Australia.. The proportion of domestically based players who were over 30 at the 2015 RWC, for New Zealand it represented 35% of the squad, and Australia 22%.

Even with the 9 players over 30, Australia was in the bottom 20% of the average age at the 2015 RWC, and more then 3 standard deviations below the mean age of RWC winning squads. Statistically speaking, Australia was an outlier in the average age.

 

[TOCC]

You're also not risking that their ability will decline due to age. Clearly contracting any player is a risk but someone under 25 at least provides you with the probability that they should be getting better, not worse.

you're not 'risking' that their ability will decline with age, but you are hedging that their ability will increase with age, which as we've seen over the years, doesn't happen in many cases.

Likewise we've see players leave Australian when they've being considered too old, or not worthy the risk of retaining at the price they demand, only too play on another 2 or 3 seasons of rugby union at a level demanding their test match selection.

As I said, hedging your bets that a player over 30 will decline because of his age is no different then hedging a young bloke will continue to improve at the same trajectory. I agree they are both risky, however my issue is that in Australia we always seem to lean towards the younger guys then the older guys. In this circumstance, Fardy was released too early.

 

[Braveheart81]

And we weren't expected to do well.

Based on the age of a lot of our key players we will be right in the optimum range in 2019.

If you took our 2015 RWC Final team I think you could reasonably expect the following players to be in our best 23 in 2019. The age they will be at the 2019 RWC is in brackets.

1. Sio (27)
2. TPN (34)
3. Kepu (33)
7. Hooper (27)
8. Pocock (31)
9. Genia (31)
10. Foley (30)
12. Beale (30)
13. Kuridrani (28)
15. Folau (30)

17. Slipper (30)

That's a substantial core of our team that will be right around the peak age and also combined with a tonne of experience.

Age wise I think our current generation of star players is better placed for the 2019 RWC than they were for 2015.

 

[fatprop]

And again Fardy's strength of attacking the breakdown has been devalued by law changes at test level.

Take that out of his repertoire and you have a solid, but pretty unspectacular 6, good at lineout, but no great ball runner or dominant defender or aggressive cleanout merchant

We all saw the Wobs rarely attack the breakdown all season, they fan out and defend and attempt not to give away penalties, I just don't see how Fardy would have added much to that game plan.

 

[Tomikin]

Scott Fardy... Came too late left too early.. He was always a late bloomer who I think was and is still playing great rugby. Usually with an amazing beard!!

I think he'd, still offer a lot at the Wallabies but by the end of last year test season Dempsey had taken hold of the 6 Jersey and like it or not Fardy wasn't hanging around to be just in the squad.

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[Tomikin]

And again Fardy's strength of attacking the breakdown has been devalued by law changes at test level.

Take that out of his repertoire and you have a solid, but pretty unspectacular 6, good at lineout, but no great ball runner or dominant defender or aggressive cleanout merchant

We all saw the Wobs rarely attack the breakdown all season, they fan out and defend and attempt not to give away penalties, I just don't see how Fardy would have added much to that game plan.

Interesting do you think with Poey back he will attack the breakdown or fan out?

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[Braveheart81]

I still think Fardy would have been the best option at 6 through most of 2017 until perhaps Dempsey burst onto the scene with a couple of outstanding performances.

He also works pretty well with Hooper and McMahon as someone who is a decent lineout technician, good workrate and has strong breakdown presence.

I don't really see a case that he should have been a high retention priority for RA through to the end of the 2019 RWC cycle.

 

[fatprop]

Interesting do you think with Poey back he will attack the breakdown or fan out?

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When you look at the other sides, it comes down to decision making I think Pocock will have issues leading to potentially 3 or 4 penalties a game depending on the ref (and possible yellows), especially with the new gate rules. But Pocock was already changing before his holiday, his running game has improved markedly as well as his wobbling about on the back of attacking mauls

 

[dru]

Really? there always going to be some churn, but he has had some solid wins as well But lets just tag him with the ones that don't make it immediately.

I don't know FP, I understand where you are coming from, but honestly, from my perspective I feel like I've given Cheika the benefit of doubt for long enough. 2017 was poor and he should be judged on it. Selections bordered on scatty frequently enough to raise questions. I don't doubt method in the madness - but nor do I anymore, doubt the madness.

 

[fatprop]

I don't know FP, I understand where you are coming from, but honestly, from my perspective I feel like I've given Cheika the benefit of doubt for long enough. 2017 was poor and he should be judged on it. Selections bordered on scatty frequently enough to raise questions. I don't doubt method in the madness - but nor do I anymore, doubt the madness.

I live in perpetual hope (and I don't think we are that good and I don't think any of the proposed other options are really any better)

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